With four out of seven polls taken this month leaning toward Trump, the Republican boasted a 0.6 percentage point edge over Biden as of Sunday, according to a RealClearPolitics (RCP) average.
The two have traded places multiple times since the aggregator began to keep track in November 2022 — when Trump announced his candidacy — with leads going as high as 2.5-2.8 percentage points. The last time Trump had an advantage in the RCP polling average was in July.
Trump is the front-runner in polling for the GOP nomination contest with 56.6 percent support. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has remained in second place all along, but RCP’s tracker shows his average dropping from a peak of 31.3% in January.
Biden dominates a much smaller field in primary surveys focused on the Democratic Party. He regularly gets about 40% to 60% support, while the next closest competitor, Robert Kennedy Jr., hovers between single digits and numbers in the teens.
In recent polls, voters have expressed deep reservations about Biden regarding his age (80) and fitness to lead effectively. Respondents also have age concerns about Trump, who is 77, but not to the same degree. Biden also is contending with an impeachment inquiry into corruption allegations that House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) announced last week.
Meanwhile, Trump is facing four criminal cases as well as civil litigation. His legal defense effort is sapping up a great deal of resources as well as media attention. But Trump has denied any wrongdoing, pleaded not guilty to the charges he faces, and claims that politically motivated prosecutors are conducting a “witch hunt” against him.
Although polling is leaning in Trump’s favor as he seeks a 2020 rematch against Biden, a different metric still gives the incumbent an advantage. RCP’s betting odds average for the presidential contest shows Biden ahead with 32.6 over Trump’s 29. DeSantis, who led the field as recently as early February, has dropped to 6.4, behind California Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom at 7.4. Newsom has not declared a candidacy for the White House at this time.