A new poll shows Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani holding a commanding 10-point lead in New York City&#8217;s mayoral race this week, with incumbent Mayor Eric Adams trailing in fourth place.
The Slingshot Strategies <a href="https://www.slingshotstrat.com/media/slingshot-mayoral-poll-general-election-7-9">poll</a>, conducted between July 2-6, showed socialist Mamdani capturing 35% of registered voters, with former Governor Andrew Cuomo at 25%, Republican Curtis Sliwa at 14%, and incumbent Mayor Eric Adams trailing with just 11%.
Adams faces an uphill battle with a dismal 28% approval rating and 62% disapproval. By contrast, Mamdani enjoys a net favorable rating of +4 (40% favorable vs. 36% unfavorable), while even the scandal-plagued Andrew Cuomo outperforms Adams, with 44% viewing him favorably and 46% unfavorably.
Other polls have found similar results, including a pro-Adams <a href="https://nypost.com/2025/07/04/us-news/new-pro-adams-poll-still-has-nyc-mayor-trailing-cuomo-by-double-digits/">poll</a> that still showed Mamdani leading with 41%, followed by Cuomo at 26%, Adams at 16%, and Sliwa at 10%.
Adams&#8217; support has collapsed even among his traditional base, with only 16% of black respondents saying they would back the mayor in the general election, compared to 35% for Mamdani and 32% for Cuomo, according to the poll.
The current contest represents a significant fracturing of Democratic power, with incumbent Mayor Adams – who campaigned as a moderate, pro-police Democrat – now being challenged from both the far-Left in Mamdani and the establishment wing in Cuomo.
While Mamdani&#8217;s 35% support is far from a majority, Slingshot founding partner Evan Roth Smith <a href="https://nypost.com/2025/07/09/us-news/eric-adams-nyc-mayoral-election-chances-are-under-water-poll/">emphasized</a> to the New York Post that the electoral math looks increasingly difficult for Adams.
&#8220;The problem is the ballot is set. And the strongest Mamdani alternative in this poll is Andrew Cuomo, who just lost to him decisively in the Democratic primary,&#8221; Smith noted. “And the Mamdani alternative that seems to have the most momentum as a fresh alternative is Eric Adams, who’s polling barely in the double digits and seems to have lost credibility everywhere in the election.”
Adams has faced widespread dissatisfaction with his administration, which has faced multiple federal investigations and criticism over the handling of the migrant crisis and public safety issues.
Despite being a Democrat, Adams performs best among Republican voters, receiving 26% support compared to Mamdani&#8217;s 7%, although Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa leads that demographic with 43%.
“There’s simply not enough Republican support for someone who is a sitting Democratic mayor of New York,” Smith added. “So it’s really, really difficult when someone is polling at 11% and the ballot isn’t changing to see what the path to victory is.”
Mamdani, a 33-year-old Assemblyman from Queens, has positioned himself as an unapologetic <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/zohran-mamdani-says-he-has-many-critiques-of-capitalism?author=Mairead+Elordi&amp;category=News&amp;elementPosition=undefined&amp;row=0&amp;rowType=Vertical+List&amp;title=Zohran+Mamdani+Says+He+Has+%E2%80%98Many+Critiques+Of+Capitalism%E2%80%99">socialist</a>. He has advocated for rent control, increasing taxes on the wealthy, and reallocating police funding to social services – policies that have raised concerns among moderate Democrats and the business community.
“You have a large number of largely white, largely outer borough homeowners who are not necessarily Democrats, who are skeptical of Mamdani,” Smith explained. “The problem is getting those voters together behind either Andrew Cuomo or Eric Adams seems to still be a pretty tall order, and becomes even more difficult since they’re both in the race.”
Cuomo and Adams have engaged in public <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2025/07/09/zohran-mamdani-leads-general-election-poll-00443469">feuding</a>, with each calling for the other to drop out to consolidate opposition against Mamdani, who <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/andrew-cuomo-falls-to-radical-socialist-zohran-mamdani-in-nyc-mayoral-primary?author=Tim+Rice&amp;category=News&amp;elementPosition=undefined&amp;row=0&amp;rowType=Vertical+List&amp;title=Andrew+Cuomo+Falls+To+Radical+Socialist+Zohran+Mamdani+In+NYC+Mayoral+Primary">won</a> the Democratic primary with 56% to Cuomo&#8217;s 44% in the final round of ranked-choice voting.
Adams’ campaign spokesperson Todd Shapiro dismissed the poll in a <a href="https://nypost.com/2025/07/09/us-news/eric-adams-nyc-mayoral-election-chances-are-under-water-poll/">statement</a> to the New York Post, saying, “just weeks ago, Andrew Cuomo was ahead in multiple polls and then went on to lose the primary by double digits.”
“The latest Slingshot poll is just another example of how out-of-touch and unreliable political polling has become,” he said.

NYC Poll Collage

Mamdani Surges To 10-Point Lead In NYC Mayoral Race, Adams Craters To Fourth Place: Poll

Andrew Cuomo

Democratic Party

Elections

Eric Adams

Mayor

New York City

News

Politics

Polls

Socialism

Zohran Mamdani

Even CNN&#8217;s chief data analyst was shocked when he looked at polls showing the dramatic shift in support — or lack thereof — for Israel, particularly among younger Democrats, in less than a decade.
Harry Enten went over the numbers with CNN anchor Kate Bolduan on Wednesday morning, and he showed just how much the Democratic Party had changed with regard to support for Israel — and while he noted that the wildest swing was among Democrats under the age of 50, even those over 50 had made a sizable shift away from supporting the Jewish state.
WATCH:
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
Re: Mamdani &amp; Israel, Democrats are longer pro-Israeli when it comes to the Israeli/Palestinian conflict.
Dems sympathized more with Israelis by 13 pt in 2017. Now, it&#8217;s Palestinians by 43 pt.
Among Dems under 50, it was Israelis by 14 pt in 2017. Now, Palestinians by 57 pt. <a href="https://t.co/AfGop8UHTF">pic.twitter.com/AfGop8UHTF</a>
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) <a href="https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1940432541556818166?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 2, 2025</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
The conversation centered on the recent Democratic primary in the New York City mayoral race — a primary that was won handily by self-described Democratic Socialist Zohran Mamdani — and Enten noted that, during the race, Mamdani&#8217;s chief opponent and disgraced former Governor Andrew Cuomo (D-NY) had criticized the Queens assemblyman for not being supportive enough of Israel.
&#8220;Andrew Cuomo, during the primary, attacked Mamdani as being insufficiently pro-Israel. I’m not quite sure the former governor understood how much the politics have changed around this issue among Democrats,&#8221; he said.
&#8220;What are we talking about here? All right, who do Democrats sympathize more with: Israelis or Palestinians? In 2017, the Democratic Party was a pro-Israeli party,&#8221; Enten explained. &#8220;Look at this. They sympathized with the Israelis by 13 points—more with the Israelis than the Palestinians. But look at this sea change. Now, Democrats sympathize more with the Palestinians by 43 points.&#8221;
&#8220;Oh my God! That is a change in the margin of 56 points over the course of just eight years. So all of a sudden, it’s the pro-Palestinian position that actually reigns supreme in Democratic politics, not the Israeli position,&#8221; he continued. &#8220;And that is part of the reason why Mamdani was able to do so well in this primary, because those attacks over Israel, simply put, did not ring true for Democrats. They’re now on the side of the Palestinians, not the Israelis.&#8221;
Bolduan pushed for more information, noting, &#8220;This is a much bigger issue, specifically with Mamdani, though. I mean, an outspoken critic of Israel. He’s facing continued criticism, though, for not being outspoken enough against antisemitism, that is for sure.&#8221;
Enten broke the data down further, pointing out that the shift away from support for Israel had been far more dramatic among younger Democrats.
&#8220;So take a look here. Who do aged 18 to 49 Democrats sympathize more with: the Israelis or the Palestinians? Again, in 2017, younger Democrats sympathized more with the Israelis by 14 points. Look at this shift now: Palestinians—they sympathize with the Palestinians by 57 points,&#8221; he said. &#8220;That is an over 70-point shift in the margin in just a matter of eight years! &#8230; The bottom line is the politics around the Israelis and the Palestinians have shifted tremendously among Democrats, and they’ve shifted specifically tremendously among Democrats who are under the age of 50.&#8221;

Palestine and Israel conflict.

By The Numbers: Even CNN’s Expert Pollster Shocked By How Anti-Israel Dems Have Become

By The Numbers: Even CNN's Expert Pollster Shocked By How Anti-Israel Dems Have Become

anti-Israel

Israel

Media

Former New York Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo, 67,  and self-declared Democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani, 33, are facing off on Tuesday in the New York Democratic mayoral primary, with a final poll suggesting the Uganda-born lawmaker could topple the veteran politician through ranked-choice voting.
Steve Kornacki, a national political correspondent and election analyst for NBC News, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/steve-kornacki-breaking-state-new-yorks-mayoral-race-primary-day-rcna214579">paints</a> a nuanced picture of Tuesday’s primary vote, emphasizing that only two major public polls have been conducted in the lead-up to the primary, each showing vastly different results.
The Emerson College/PIX11/The Hill <a href="https://emersoncollegepolling.com/new-york-city-mayoral-poll-june/">poll</a> shows Cuomo leading Mamdani by a slim 35% to 32% margin in first-choice votes, but after multiple rounds of ranked-choice tabulation, Mamdani overtakes the former governor to win 52% to 48%. There are 11 Democrats on the primary ballot.
A Marist University poll <a href="https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/Marist-Poll_June-NYC-NOS-and-Tables_202506162130-2.pdf">conducted</a> a week prior has Cuomo leading 38% to 27% in the initial round and 55% to 45% after several rounds of ranked choice.
In ranked-choice voting, voters rank up to five candidates in order of preference. If no candidate receives more than 50% of first-choice votes, the last-place candidate is eliminated, and their votes are redistributed based on voters’ next choices until someone wins a majority.
The polls diverge in two major areas, Kornacki explains: performance among black voters and the distribution of City Comptroller Brad Lander’s votes after he is eliminated in the ranked choice tabulation.
The Marist poll showed Cuomo with a 52-point advantage among black voters in the final round, while the more recent Emerson survey indicates Mamdani has closed that gap significantly, winning 38% of black voters in the final tabulation.
Lander’s projected elimination had little impact on the final round of the Marist poll, as Cuomo’s lead diminished only slightly from 13 to 10 points. In contrast, Emerson’s final round shows Lander’s votes propelling Mamdani to a 4-point lead over Cuomo after trailing in the prior round.
Brad Lander, recently <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/watch-democrat-nyc-mayoral-candidate-arrested-by-ice-at-immigration-court">arrested</a> at an immigration court protest, could emerge as the race&#8217;s kingmaker.
Lander and Mamdani formed a strategic alliance last week, with each candidate asking supporters to include the other in their ranked ballots while excluding Cuomo — a move that explains why Mamdani gains substantially if Lander is eliminated in the tabulation process.
Political analyst and statistician Nate Silver <a href="https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1937185148736618695">points out</a>, “[O]ne of the nuances of RCV (ranked-choice voting) is that negative campaigning can backfire just because it puts your name more in voters&#8217; minds and therefore they&#8217;ll list you *somewhere* on their ballot.”
&#8220;I&#8217;m hearing things I don&#8217;t like about this Zohran guy, I&#8217;d better make sure to list him below [preferred choices] on my ballot’ is a lot *better* for Zohran than if voters don&#8217;t list him at all. Cuomo may benefit from this effect too,” Silver <a href="https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1937185150611357725">adds</a>.
Kornacki predicts the tallying will likely continue past Tuesday, and the primary result might not even indicate the next mayor of deep blue New York City.
But no matter who wins the Democratic primary, both Cuomo and Mamdani are expected to appear on the general election ballot. Cuomo has already created the &#8220;Fight and Deliver Party,&#8221; which will allow him to appear on the November ballot regardless of today&#8217;s outcome, while Mamdani is poised to be the candidate of the Working Families Party in the event of defeat.
Meanwhile, current Democratic Mayor Eric Adams is running as an independent in the general election, while Republicans are poised to nominate Guardian Angels founder Curtis Sliwa. The potential addition of both Cuomo and Mamdani further crowds the field for the general election in November.
Mamdani, who currently represents parts of Queens in the state assembly, has <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/here-are-the-top-five-craziest-policy-proposals-from-nyc-mayor-candidates?author=Catherine+Maxwell&amp;category=undefined&amp;elementPosition=0&amp;row=3&amp;rowHeadline=Latest+News&amp;rowType=Vertical+Carousel&amp;title=Here+Are+The+Top+Five+Craziest+Policy+Proposals+From+NYC+Mayor+Candidates">advocated</a> for defunding the police, rent control expansion, government-sponsored grocery stores, higher taxes, and $65 million in taxpayer-funded “gender-affirming” trans procedures for adults and children.
Betting markets have the race in a dead heat as of Tuesday morning, leaning slightly in favor of Mamdani after the new Emerson poll, which accurately predicted the <a href="https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/nyc-mayor-2021-adams-stays-ahead-but-rank-choice-voting-closes-gap-for-wiley-and-garcia">outcome</a> of the 2021 primary, showed Mamdani taking the lead.

Mamdani/Cuomo

Mixed Polls, Major Stakes: Experts Decode The Tight NYC Mayor Battle

Democratic Socialism

New York

Ranked Choice Voting

CNN&#8217;s chief data analyst Harry Enten revealed on Monday that most Americans agree with the Trump administration’s assessment that higher education needs &#8220;a kick in the rear end,&#8221; with confidence in colleges plummeting to just 36%.
The decline in Americans&#8217; confidence in higher education has been dramatic over the past decade, Enten explained, citing a recent Gallup poll.
&#8220;You go back a decade ago, 57% of Americans had high confidence in higher education. &#8230; That number has plummeted &#8230; down to 36%,&#8221; Enten explained, speaking with Kate Balduan, adding that 68% of Americans believe higher education is &#8220;on the wrong track.&#8221;
The perception of ideological bias on college campuses is widespread, with Enten revealing that a plurality of Americans agree colleges have a liberal bias, while only a small minority disagree.
“So, do colleges have a liberal bias? I think that&#8217;s really the question here. What we see in polling after polling after polling is that the plurality say yes. Overall, look at that. 45% of Americans overall agree with the idea that colleges have a liberal bias. Just 24% disagree with that idea.”
Among Republicans, the sentiment is even stronger, with “67% of Republicans&#8221; agreeing that &#8220;colleges have a liberal bias,” reflecting why many conservatives have long criticized academia.
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“This is why Donald Trump is so emphatic and so wanting to take on this fight because he knows that Republicans hate universities, hate the administrations, believe they have a liberal bias, and in fact the plurality of Americans overall agree with the idea, agree with Donald Trump, that colleges are in fact a place where bias reigns.”
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-media-max-width="560">
A lot of Americans agree with Trump: higher ed needs a kick in the rear end. Those with high confidence in higher ed has collapsed: 57% in 2015 to 36% now. 68% (!) say higher ed is on the wrong track.
Also, a plurality of Americans &amp; the GOP agree: colleges have a liberal bias. <a href="https://t.co/JZtup3BoGV">pic.twitter.com/JZtup3BoGV</a>
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) <a href="https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1928088903279358015?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 29, 2025</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
According to Enten, it&#8217;s no longer much of a question of if there is bias, but rather, “it’s a question of whether or not people agree with Trump’s tactics,” although they “definitely agree with him on the idea that there is a problem with higher ed overall.”
These poll results come as Trump has attempted to <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/trump-admin-freezes-all-new-student-visa-interviews-in-major-blow-to-elite-universities?author=Nathan+Gay&amp;category=News&amp;elementPosition=2&amp;row=0&amp;rowType=Vertical+List&amp;title=Trump+Admin+Freezes+All+New+Student+Visa+Interviews+In+Major+Blow+To+Elite+Universities" target="_blank" rel="noopener">crack down</a> on universities such as Harvard, which receive billions in federal funding and grants despite rampant DEI initiatives and tolerance of antisemitism on campus.
Trump&#8217;s tough stance on higher education may already be having an impact internationally. Webpage views for U.S. university courses from potential students abroad have plummeted by 50% between January and April, according to Enten, suggesting foreign students are looking elsewhere for their education.

Pro-Palestinian Protests Continue At Columbia University In New York City

Even CNN Analyst Has To Admit ‘Americans Agree With Trump’ On Broken Higher Ed System

American Universities

Bias

Education

Harry Enten

U.S.

The vast majority of Americans support President Donald Trump&#8217;s actions to make medical prices more transparent, according to an <a href="https://www.patientrightsadvocate.org/prapollingmemomay2025" target="_blank" rel="noopener">exclusive poll</a> shared with The Daily Wire.
The poll from Echelon Insights found that most Americans, including Democrats and independents, support Trump&#8217;s February executive order that requires hospitals and insurers to display the actual costs of treatment, not just estimates. Of those surveyed, 74% of Democrats, 83% of independents, and 91% of Republicans said they supported Trump&#8217;s policy proposal.
“Voters overwhelmingly think that patients should get real, actual prices for healthcare services before they receive them – and also don’t think that is currently what patients get in our healthcare system,&#8221; pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson wrote in a memo shared with The Daily Wire. &#8220;As a result, they strongly support leaders trying to do something about the issue, enforcing radical price transparency measures and going bold on this issue.”
<div id="attachment_922227" style="width: 1036px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-922227" class="size-full wp-image-922227" src="https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2025/05/Screenshot-2025-05-19-at-2.02.40%E2%80%AFPM.png" alt="" width="1026" height="387" srcset="https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2025/05/Screenshot-2025-05-19-at-2.02.40%E2%80%AFPM.png 1026w, https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2025/05/Screenshot-2025-05-19-at-2.02.40%E2%80%AFPM-300x113.png 300w, https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2025/05/Screenshot-2025-05-19-at-2.02.40%E2%80%AFPM-1024x386.png 1024w, https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2025/05/Screenshot-2025-05-19-at-2.02.40%E2%80%AFPM-768x290.png 768w" sizes="(max-width: 1026px) 100vw, 1026px" />Echelon Insights.</div>
The poll, commissioned by PatientsRightsAdvocate.org, surveyed over 2,000 likely voters from April 21-23. The organization previously <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/patients-group-praises-trump-for-radical-health-care-executive-order" target="_blank" rel="noopener">rolled out</a> a billboard campaign in Times Square and outside the Department of Health and Human Services, which thanked Trump for the executive order.
In the <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/02/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-announces-actions-to-make-healthcare-prices-transparent/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">executive order</a>, Trump directed his administration to ensure that hospitals make “more meaningful price information available to patients to support a more competitive, innovative, affordable, and higher quality healthcare system.” Trump directed the Treasury, Labor, and Health and Human Services Secretaries to come up with guidance to enforce the transparency regulations intended to increase competition among health care providers. The goal is to mandate that hospitals list more explicitly the price of different treatments and care.
The poll also found that 96% of Americans agree that they “deserve to know the price of their healthcare before they receive it,&#8221; and over 90% agree that it wasn&#8217;t fair to require financial agreements to cover all medical costs not covered by insurance before having an accurate estimate of the cost.
Republican strategist David Kochel said that the issue of pricing transparency could be a winning issue for Republicans, saying his family was charged $15,000 for a $170 EpiPen for his son.
&#8220;Voters are tired of being blindsided by outrageous hospital bills and hidden costs,&#8221; he said. &#8220;They want real accountability and the power to make informed choices about their care. The GOP should be shouting this from the rooftops: we’re the party that fights for fairness, choice, and affordability in healthcare. By championing transparency, we side with consumers over special interests, with small businesses over big industry, and with families over the status quo.&#8221;
Last week, Trump took more <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/trump-signs-order-to-reduce-drug-prices-tells-rest-of-world-to-pay-up" target="_blank" rel="noopener">executive action</a> on health care, signing a directive seeking to make drug prices in America comparable to the rest of the world by slashing bureaucracy.

US-POLITICS-TRUMP-DIPLOMACY

Most Americans Back Trump’s ‘Radical’ Actions To Reform Health Care Industry

Donald Trump

Health

Health Care

CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten warned Democrats not to get too far out over their skis in celebrating President Donald Trump&#8217;s recent lower poll numbers, noting that he was still beating them handily on most issues.
Enten spoke with host Sara Sidner on Thursday morning — on the heels of former Vice President Kamala Harris&#8217; speech at San Francisco&#8217;s Emerge America gala — and among the questions they discussed was whether or not Americans believed Trump was doing a better job as president than Harris would have.
WATCH:
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
&#8220;These numbers should be a major wake-up call for Democrats.&#8221; Even now, Trump still does well when matched against Democrats.
-Trump 45%-Harris 43% on who&#8217;d be doing a better job as president 
-Trump 40% to Dems in Congress&#8217; 32% on who can better deal with the main U.S. problems <a href="https://t.co/P5Fg4KdLqG">pic.twitter.com/P5Fg4KdLqG</a>
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) <a href="https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1917946852596424948?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 1, 2025</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Enten explained that even though Trump has seen a drop-off in his approval numbers — especially since he rolled out widespread tariffs in early April — his numbers are still higher than those of the Democrats who continue to attack him.
&#8220;It’s not just about regretting that vote. It’s literally saying who would be doing the better job right now? And Trump continues to score a higher percentage of the vote than Kamala Harris,&#8221; Enten said, sharing data from a CNN poll that showed 45% saying Trump was doing a better job as president than Harris (at 43%) would have.
&#8220;This looks a heck of a lot like the election result. We have just seen this in poll after poll after poll, despite the fact that Trump’s favorable ratings aren’t too hot to trot when he’s matched up against who he was matched up in 2024. He still, across the polls, scores a higher percentage than Kamala Harris,&#8221; he said.
&#8220;The bottom line is when you look at Donald Trump in a vacuum, it’s one thing, but when you actually match him up against folks in the real world, all of a sudden his numbers look considerably better. And when you match him up against his main competition at this point, Democrats in Congress, he is more trusted on the main problems facing the United States right now,&#8221; Enten continued, noting that a recent ABC/Ipsos/Washington Post poll had Trump at 40% with Democrats in Congress at 32%. &#8220;In fact, it’s not even close. It’s an eight point advantage, which in politics, well, that’s a wide ocean.&#8221;
He then issued a warning to Democrats who thought Trump&#8217;s low poll numbers meant they would have an easy road in 2026 or even 2028, adding, &#8220;If Democrats think that at this particular point, just because Donald Trump is unpopular, that they’re going to run away with it like a Heisman trophy winner, that is not necessarily the case. These numbers should be a major wake up call for Democrats. Despite Donald Trump’s unpopularity in the polls. When you actually go up against him and you put Democrats&#8217; names against him, when you put Republicans as a whole up against him, Republicans and Donald Trump do considerably better. And that is why Democrats, in fact, cannot count their chickens just yet because those eggs have not cracked at this particular moment.&#8221;
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) gave a real world example of exactly what Enten was saying during a recent press conference, where he crowed about just how low Trump&#8217;s approval numbers were for his first 100 days.
CNN reporter Manu Raju pushed back, pointing out that Schumer himself had the lowest approval rating in Congress with just 17% — a fact that Schumer quickly brushed aside, saying, &#8220;Polls come and go.&#8221;
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
Same Presser:
Schumer: &#8220;Trump has the lowest 100 day approval rating since they started polling.&#8221;
2 Minutes later.
Manu Raju: &#8220;There&#8217;s a poll out today that has your approval rating lower than any other Congressional leader at 17 percent.&#8221;
Schumer: &#8220;Polls come and go.&#8221; <a href="https://t.co/aMNc0Su667">pic.twitter.com/aMNc0Su667</a>
— Carmine Sabia (@CarmineSabia) <a href="https://twitter.com/CarmineSabia/status/1917583236256895088?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 30, 2025</a></blockquote>
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Democratic Congressional Leaders Reveal Proposals To Combat Trump, DOGE “Chaos”

CNN Pollster Warns Dems Gleefully Broadcasting Trump’s Poor Poll Numbers: Theirs Are Worse

CNN Pollster Warns Dems Gleefully Broadcasting Trump's Poor Poll Numbers: Theirs Are Worse

Chuck Schumer

In one moment, embattled Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) was touting polls that reflected poorly on President Donald Trump. In another, he was dismissing a survey that showed a grim approval rating for himself.
The inconsistent commentary on the significance of bad poll numbers, first <a href="https://x.com/frankthorp/status/1917304878327816344" target="_blank" rel="noopener">highlighted</a> on X by NBC&#8217;s Frank Thorp V, happened Tuesday as Schumer and other Senate Democrats held a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B-bVrqfslqI" target="_blank" rel="noopener">press conference</a> to highlight &#8220;100 days of chaos&#8221; during Trump&#8217;s second term.
In his introductory remarks, Schumer said, &#8220;The polls this week show Trump has the lowest 100-day approval rating since they started polling 80 years ago. The lowest! Even worse, 72% of Americans think it&#8217;s likely that Trump&#8217;s handling of the economy will walk us directly into a recession.&#8221;
Less than 20 minutes later, during the same event, CNN&#8217;s Manu Raju <a href="https://x.com/mkraju/status/1917306463145415149" target="_blank" rel="noopener">asked</a> Schumer about his own dismal approval ratings.
&#8220;There&#8217;s a poll out today that has your approval ratings lower than any other congressional leader at 17%. Are you concerned that you may be a liability for your party?&#8221; Raju asked.
&#8220;Polls come and go,&#8221; Schumer replied. &#8220;Our party is united. We&#8217;re on our front foot. We&#8217;re stepping forward, going after Trump and having real success.&#8221;
Schumer has faced a <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/embattled-schumer-crowns-himself-the-best-leader-for-the-senate" target="_blank" rel="noopener">crisis</a> of confidence in his leadership among some Democrats ever since he refused to vote in favor of blocking a GOP stopgap bill to avert a partial government shutdown earlier this year.
The New York Democrat <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zh6DQMjKuDk" target="_blank" rel="noopener">told</a> CNN over the weekend that he was &#8220;staying put&#8221; after Minority Whip Dick Durbin (D-IL), the second-ranked Democrat in the Senate, <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/no-2-senate-democrat-dick-durbin-to-retire" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> last week, &#8220;In my heart, I know it’s time to pass the torch,&#8221; revealing that he would not seek re-election in 2026.
“I’m fighting the fight every day, as is our caucus, in a united and successful way, as you have seen by your poll and other polls,” Schumer <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/schumer-wont-rule-out-prioritizing-another-trump-impeachment" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a>. “We’re showing America how bad Trump is, and showing that Republicans who embrace Trump do so at their peril.”
Just before he reached the 100-day milestone of his second term, Trump also disregarded the polls in a post to his social media platform on Monday.
&#8220;The Polls from the Fake News are, like the News itself, FAKE! We are doing GREAT, better than ever before,&#8221; he <a href="https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114419185611217033" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a> on Truth Social.

Minority Leader, Senator Chuck Schumer (D-NY)

Schumer’s Poll Dance: Pounces On Trump’s Low Numbers, Ignores His Own Dismal Ratings

Congress

Democrats

U.S. Senate

Tuesday marks 100 days of President Trump&#8217;s second term.
President Trump has done an enormous number of amazing things, ranging from fighting DEI in every aspect of his administration to targeting university campuses that are hotbeds of antisemitism and leftism and wokeness, to having the Secretary of Defense try to fix all the problems at the Pentagon, to establishing DOGE, which is going through all aspects of government spending with Elon Musk and attempting to cut waste, fraud and abuse.
The president has issued more executive orders in his first 100 days than any president in history. He&#8217;s been incredibly effective in terms of pushing forward many parts of his agenda.
With all of that said, the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/04/27/trump-poll-approval-rating-100-days/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">polling</a> right now for President Trump is not good. That is a reflection of public sentiment specifically regarding the economy. And that is all before the main effect of the tariff war that he has declared kicks in.
The good news for President Trump is that he&#8217;s blessed by his enemies, because they are awful. The American people hate the people that President Trump faces down even more than they dislike President Trump.
The same Washington Post/ABC News-Ipsos <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/04/27/trump-poll-approval-rating-100-days/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">poll</a> showing President Trump with a 39% approval rating also shows that 7 in 10 Americans say the Democratic Party is out of touch, while 6 in 10 say that about Trump.
So whatever the American people think of President Trump, they think even less about the Democratic Party.
<h3><a href="https://www.dailywire.com/episode/bss-ep-2187-member-exclusive?elementPosition=0&amp;row=0&amp;rowType=Vertical+Show+Episodes+Carousel" target="_blank" rel="noopener">WATCH: The Ben Shapiro Show</a></h3>
There’s a good reason for that, which is that the Democratic Party is so unbelievably unhinged. They are truly incompetent. It is amazing. It&#8217;s a target-rich environment for Democrats out there, particularly on the economy — but they cannot help themselves because they&#8217;re constantly running to the radical left of their own base. They&#8217;re saying idiotic things on a daily basis.
Over the weekend, J.B. Pritzker — the rotund governor of Illinois who has to be lowered into the Illinois capital by crane — was <a href="https://x.com/IsaacDovere/status/1916660604577763511" target="_blank" rel="noopener">giving a speech</a> in which he suggested that anybody who is a supporter of Trump ought to be harassed on the streets.
He declared: 
<blockquote>Never before in my life have I called for mass protests, for mobilization, for disruption. But I have now. These Republicans cannot know a moment of peace. They have to understand that we will fight their cruelty with every megaphone and every microphone that we have. We must castigate them on the soapbox and then punish them at the ballot box.</blockquote>
Democrats are unhinged. Instead of them simply saying, “President Trump isn&#8217;t doing the job Americans want him to do,” which would be the smart way to actually approach this, they&#8217;ve decided instead that they&#8217;re going to go psychotic.
Hakeem Jeffries, the House minority leader and would-be House speaker, was in the middle of a protest when he <a href="https://x.com/IsaacDovere/status/1916660604577763511" target="_blank" rel="noopener">started quoting</a> Ulysses S. Grant during the Civil War, suggesting that America could break down between patriots and traitors. Presumably, the traitors in his mind would be Republicans. 
He quoted Grant saying: 
<blockquote>Whatever may have been my political opinions before, I have but one sentiment now: that is, we have a government, and laws, and a flag, and they must all be sustained. There are but two parties now: traitors and patriots.</blockquote>
This is just psychotic, because he’s not even arguing about the supposed violation of law by the Trump administration. He&#8217;s not arguing about emoluments. He&#8217;s arguing here about the budget. He&#8217;s suggesting if you&#8217;re on the wrong side of the budget negotiation, then you are a traitor. 
President Trump is blessed in his opposition. He brings out the absolute worst in all of his enemies. Jon Ossoff, the soon-to-be ex-senator from Georgia, was trying to rile up the Democratic base, and said that he&#8217;d be <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/sen-jon-ossoff-signals-support-trump-impeachment-rcna203126" target="_blank" rel="noopener">in favor</a> of impeaching President Trump for selling meme coins as a fundraiser. 
With all of that said, it is not good news for President Trump that he&#8217;s riding so low in the polls. That&#8217;s particularly true with independents; according to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/04/27/trump-poll-approval-rating-100-days/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a brand-new</a> Washington Post/ABC News-Ipsos poll, among independents, only 33% approve of Trump while 58% disapprove. Among independents who lean Republican, Trump&#8217;s approval has dropped from 76% to 63% since February.
There&#8217;s one reason for this drop, and that reason is not immigration. That reason is not foreign policy. That reason is the tariff war. The tariff war has absolutely crippled him.
According to that <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/04/27/trump-poll-approval-rating-100-days/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">poll</a>, only 31% of Americans approve of the recent turmoil in the stock market. Only 34% of Americans approve of tariffs on imported goods. Only 38% approve of his relations with foreign countries, only 39% approve of his work on the economy.
The problem, however, is that whenever a president is unpopular on one issue, it tends to drag him down on a wide variety of other issues. On immigration, which is a signal issue, his key issue since 2015, President Trump is succeeding. But when it comes to the economy and expanding the power of the presidency, 64% of Americans say that he&#8217;s going too far.
If you&#8217;re hoping for President Trump&#8217;s success, as I am — as someone who voted for him and fundraised for him — he needs to succeed on the economy because if he doesn’t, everything else goes down in flames.
I&#8217;m talking to people who are in the wholesale and retail space and they are freaking out about the tariffs. They’re seeing their orders cut while prices increase. They’re seeing the supply chains break and ships arriving empty. There are a lot of fears of actual shortages and price hikes. I know people who are in the import/export business and they&#8217;re getting hammered, some looking at the possibility of actual bankruptcy. The Magnificent Seven are off to their worst start to a year.
As I’ve said before, there are preconditions to fighting a successful trade war. You need to get ready for it just like a regular war. If you&#8217;re going to win a regular war, you need to make sure your supply lines are in place. You need to make sure that you actually have the material. You have to have your allies in place.
Meanwhile, Congress needs to get the tax bill through ASAP.
President Trump&#8217;s presidency now relies on a couple of things. First, ending this trade war or recalibrating it so that it will be more likely to be successful, which will require dramatic moves. Second, passing the tax bill. If neither of those things happens, then President Trump&#8217;s presidency will continue to spin out. That’s because as the economy goes, President Trump&#8217;s promise for all of his career has been that he&#8217;s a great businessman, and he would make sure the economy was okay. 
Getting the economy right is what President Trump needs to do if he wishes to make the American people happy with his presidency again, which will give him the political capital necessary to do everything else.
That would be fantastic, because he is getting so many other things dead-right.

TOPSHOT-US-POLITICS-TRUMP-HABBA

100 Days: Where Does Trump Stand?

Ben Shapiro

Hakeem Jeffries

J.B. Pritzker

Presidency

President Trump

Republicans

Tariffs

Washington Post

CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten painted a dismal picture for Democrats — in particular for Democratic leadership on Capitol Hill — suggesting during a Thursday appearance that the bottom has effectively dropped out for the minority party.
Enten joined anchor John Berman on &#8220;CNN News Central,&#8221; where he highlighted a dramatic drop-off in the overall approval ratings of top Democrats — especially when it came to their handling of the economy in the months since President Donald Trump returned to the White House.
WATCH:
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">
🚨NEW: CNN&#39;s Harry Enten says he thinks there&#39;s &quot;REVOLT&quot; occurring within Dem Party🚨
&quot;Democrats on Dem leaders in Congress — the belief that they will do the right thing when it comes to the economy — last year at this time, 80% believed that the Democratic leaders in Congress… <a href="https://t.co/BdKJ6FYKqN">pic.twitter.com/BdKJ6FYKqN</a>
&mdash; Jason Cohen 🇺🇸 (@JasonJournoDC) <a href="https://twitter.com/JasonJournoDC/status/1915447865343610883?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 24, 2025</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
&#8220;This, I think, is a revolt, a revolt that is going on within the Democratic Party right now, Democrats and their leaders,&#8221; Enten said, noting that the poor poll numbers were reflective of Democratic voters not having any confidence in the leadership of their own party.
&#8220;I mean, take a look nationally. Democrats on Dem leaders in Congress — the belief that they will do the right thing when it comes to the economy — last year at this time, 80% believed that the Democratic leaders in Congress would do the right thing when it comes to the economy,&#8221; Enten said reiterating again the fact that these numbers were reflective of what Democrats thought of their own party&#8217;s leadership.
&#8220;Look at where we are now. That number has been slashed in half — to just 39%. Holy Toledo,&#8221; Enten exclaimed. &#8220;That is the lowest number by far in Gallup polling. The lowest previous was just 60%, which is 21 points higher than this.&#8221;
&#8220;Democrats hate, hate, hate, hate what their congressional leaders in Washington are doing right now on the key issue of the day, the economy. And their confidence has fallen through the floor,&#8221; he concluded.
Enten also pointed to recent polling that could spell disaster for Senate Minority Leader <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/cnn-data-guru-its-time-for-chuck-schumer-to-panic-sirens-should-be-going-off" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Chuck Schumer</a>, noting that the longtime party leader was struggling to keep the approval of even half of Democrats in his home state. Schumer recently broke with his House counterpart — Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) — on a bipartisan spending bill to avoid a government shutdown, prompting backlash from within the party.
The Democratic National Committee (DNC) is also in disarray since newly-elected Vice Chair <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/new-dnc-leader-david-hogg-says-hell-push-primaries-against-some-in-his-own-party" target="_blank" rel="noopener">David Hogg</a> announced his plan to use Leaders We Deserve — an organization he founded — to funnel $20 million into <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/dnc-chief-warns-david-hogg-if-you-challenge-dem-incumbents-leave-dnc" target="_blank" rel="noopener">primary challenges</a> for &#8220;out of touch&#8221; Democrats. Jeffries pushed back during a Sunday interview, saying he planned to support every incumbent Democrat, and longtime Democratic strategist <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/the-honeymoon-is-over-longtime-dem-strategist-trashes-contemptible-little-twerp-david-hogg" target="_blank" rel="noopener">James Carville</a> suggested that the DNC could sue Hogg for working against the party&#8217;s interests.
Meanwhile, Senate Minority Whip <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/no-2-senate-democrat-dick-durbin-to-retire" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Dick Durbin</a> (D-IL) may have seen the writing on the wall — he announced on Wednesday that he did not plan to seek reelection.

US-POLITICS-TRUMP-CONGRESS

‘Holy Toledo’: The Bottom Has Dropped Out For Democrat Leadership, CNN Pollster Says

'Holy Toledo': CNN Pollster Says The Bottom Has Dropped Out For Democrat Leadership

CNN&#8217;s resident pollster Harry Enten raised the big red flags as he broke down the latest numbers for Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) — who has held one of New York&#8217;s two Senate seats since 1999 — noting that the Democratic leader&#8217;s future looks far from secure.
Enten, whose official job title is chief data analyst, joined anchor John Berman on Thursday&#8217;s broadcast of CNN News Central — and he laid out the details of a Siena College poll, explaining why those numbers should be setting off alarm bells for Schumer and his team.
WATCH:
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">
🚨NEW: CNN&#39;s Harry Enten warns Chuck Schumer it&#39;s officially time to PANIC about his political future🚨
&quot;Should Schumer stay as Senate leader? According to New York Democrats, just 50% say yes &#8230; 48% say no. This screams — sirens should be going off. Primary challenge. Primary… <a href="https://t.co/q1synv0V6y">pic.twitter.com/q1synv0V6y</a>
&mdash; Jason Cohen 🇺🇸 (@JasonJournoDC) <a href="https://twitter.com/JasonJournoDC/status/1915445411956801841?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 24, 2025</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
&#8220;New York Democrats on Chuck Schumer — view him favorably in December of 2024. That was just a few months ago — it was 73%. Look at where that number has fallen to in just a few months. It is now down to just 52%,&#8221; Enten explained, adding, &#8220;That is the lowest I could ever find in Siena College on how Democrats in Chuck Schumer’s home state view him.&#8221;
&#8220;And keep in mind, if you’re thinking about a primary challenge, it would be a few years away — but Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s favorable rating among Democrats is considerably higher, in the 60s. So he is doing quite poorly in his own home state of New York,&#8221; Enten continued. &#8220;I never thought I’d see the day in which just 52% of New York Democrats view Chuck Schumer favorably. It’s almost unfathomable.&#8221;
Enten went on to note that other poll questions had given equally bad news for the New York Democrat — who has led the Senate Democratic Caucus since 2017 and was the Senate Majority Leader for the last four years.
&#8220;They simply don’t like the job he’s doing as Senate leader. I mean, look at this — should Schumer stay as Senate leader? Again, according to New York Democrats, just 50% say yes. Look at this number — 48% say no,&#8221; he added. &#8220;This screams — sirens should be going off. Primary challenge. Primary challenge. Primary challenge. When you’re a Democrat in New York and these are your ratings — this is a big wake-up call if you’re Chuck Schumer.&#8221;

Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer

CNN Data Guru: It’s Time For Chuck Schumer To Panic, ‘Sirens Should Be Going Off’

CNN Data Guru: It's Time For Chuck Schumer To Panic, 'Sirens Should Be Going Off'

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

CNN pollster Harry Enten said on Thursday that President Donald Trump is strongest on his immigration policy — and, in fact, a majority of Americans agreed with him when he said that all illegal immigrants should be deported.
Enten laid out the details during a Thursday appearance on CNN News Central with anchor Kate Bolduan, where he noted just how far public sentiment had swung since Trump&#8217;s first administration on that particular issue — and how many Americans appeared to agree that Trump&#8217;s policies were an improvement on those of former President Joe Biden.
WATCH:
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">
Immigration is &quot;where Trump wants the focus&#8230; Pretty, pretty please with a cherry on top.&quot; 
-His net approval on immigration is positive
-A plurality say under Trump immigration policy is on the right track (unlike under Biden)
-Most want all undocumented immigrants deported <a href="https://t.co/5RbgJPjW7D">pic.twitter.com/5RbgJPjW7D</a>
&mdash; (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) <a href="https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1912862689178644942?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 17, 2025</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
&#8220;Why is Trump focusing on immigration? Let me just tell you, this is where Trump wants the focus. Pretty, pretty please with a cherry on top. Why is that?&#8221; Enten asked before going to the data.
In 2017, several months into his first term in the White House, Trump had been underwater (-12 points) on immigration policy. Eight years later, with arguably stricter policies in place, Trump was above water by one point on the same issue.
&#8220;This is one of his strongest issues at plus one point,&#8221; Enten continued. &#8220;And more than that on the net approval — the net approval for him on this issue has stayed steady in the positive. This is an area where Donald Trump wants to focus because the bottom line is this is an area in which the American people, at least the bare majority of them, seem to like what he’s doing.&#8221;
Bolduan briefly raised the issue of the economy, saying that Trump was less popular on that particular topic, before asking Enten to lay out the difference between Trump and Biden on the immigration issue.
&#8220;We know that this was why he leaned into immigration so much,&#8221; Bolduan said.
&#8220;Yes, this is a big reason why,&#8221; Enten agreed, adding, &#8220;So take a look here. This is on immigration. What track are we on? The right track or the wrong track? Look in December. Look at the percentage who said we were on the wrong track, 62% of Americans, when Joe Biden was in office, compared to just 14% who said that we were on right track. Flash forward to April. Well, hello. 45% say we’re on the right track, compared to 42% who say we were on the long track.&#8221;
&#8220;So in a big switcheroo from where we were back in January, the plurality of Americans say that the country is on the right track when it comes to immigration policy. Back in December, when Joe Biden was president, the vast majority said that we were on the wrong track. Again, this points out that on the whole, Americans like where we’re going on immigration policy under Donald Trump, which is very different from where we were under Joe Biden,&#8221; Enten said.
Enten concluded with one last comparison, showing the dramatic change in public perception regarding mass deportations since the beginning of Trump&#8217;s first term.
&#8220;Voters favoring the government trying to deport all 11 million of them, back in 2016, just 38% of voters wanted the government to try to deport 11 million undocumented immigrants. Compared to where we are in 2025. Fifty-six percent – the majority,&#8221; Enten said. &#8220;The American people have come a long way on this issue, much closer to Donald Trump, and I think that’s a big part of the reason why Americans are increasingly saying the country is on the right track when it comes to immigration policy, and why Donald Trump’s net approval rating on that issue is in the positive, very much unlike his first term.&#8221;

CNN Pollster Admits Most Americans Side With Trump On Illegals, Want Them ALL Deported

Deportations

Illegal Immigration

Editor’s note: This is the second installment of a six-part series by pollster Brent Buchanan on the politics of the American South. Last week, Buchanan — a Montgomery, Alabama native — laid out why the South holds the keys to political control in some surprising ways. This week, Buchanan&#8217;s back to explore the shifting priorities of minority voters in the South — and why Democrats shouldn&#8217;t take those voters for granted.
We hope you enjoy.
—
It’s a myth — and a costly mistake — for political campaigns and the mainstream media to treat minority voting behavior as monolithic and permanently Democratic.
As we highlighted in the <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/the-rise-of-the-south-is-not-what-you-think-why-it-holds-the-keys-to-political-control" target="_blank" rel="noopener">first installment</a> of this six-part series, America’s political realignment is already underway. In the South, the Democratic Party’s long-held assumption that minority voters would forever anchor their coalition to decide national elections is unraveling. As we’ll break down, Hispanic and Black voters are increasingly prioritizing economic concerns over the new standard Democratic playbook of identity politics.
In this massive analysis of the American South, we examined not only the demographic variables, survey responses, and trends within education, income, gender, age, and partisanship, but infused some specific findings from our latest National Voter Trends (NVT) <a href="https://www.cygn.al/poll-democrats-continue-to-struggle-as-trump-maintains-strong-approval-even-in-light-of-tariffs/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">poll</a> to bring greater clarity about minority voters throughout the South.
<div class="image"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-907595" src="https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2025/04/Full-Map.jpeg" alt="" width="670" height="407" srcset="https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2025/04/Full-Map.jpeg 670w, https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2025/04/Full-Map-300x182.jpeg 300w" sizes="(max-width: 670px) 100vw, 670px" /></div>
With sustained population increases and the anticipated addition of even more congressional seats, Republicans have new opportunities to attract minority voters if they’re willing to invest in sustained outreach. But just because Democrats are struggling to maintain control, their losses don&#8217;t mean Republicans will automatically benefit.
<h4>DATA NUGGET: While Republicans gained from a partisanship perspective from 2020 to 2024, some of this was a factor of turnout, with Republicans losing 3% from 2020 to 2024, versus Democrats falling 16% in the same time scale.</h4>
“As we said in part one, the South is a deeply complex region with vast overlays of cultural, religious, and political variables that transcend state lines,” said Nicholas Valdiviez, Cygnal’s Sampling Lead on this project. “How Southern minority voters think and feel is no different.”
<h3>The Soulful South</h3>
<div class="image"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-907597" src="https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2025/04/Soulful-South-.jpeg" alt="" width="512" height="413" srcset="https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2025/04/Soulful-South-.jpeg 512w, https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2025/04/Soulful-South--300x242.jpeg 300w" sizes="(max-width: 512px) 100vw, 512px" /></div>
This shift is most evident in two key regions we’ve dubbed the Soulful South and the Tex-Mex Nexus.
Starting with the Soulful South, black voters are challenging long-held assumptions about their political loyalties. This region of the South has the highest percentage of black Americans, and was the only region that has grown year-over-year for Republicans since 2012. That shows this shifting demographic is more than just a blip, rather, a consistent move to the right.
<h4>DATA NUGGET: Among Republican and right-leaning independent voters, The Daily Wire garnered 41 percent of voters who converted from Biden in 2020 to Trump in 2024 as their go-to news source. More <a href="https://www.cygn.al/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/22974-Cygnal-National-NVT-Apr25-Deck-Public-2.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>.</h4>
Spanning rural parishes and counties along ancient river networks and coastal lowlands, the Soulful South was politically split nearly 50-50 in 2012. By 2024, however, the Republican vote share surged to 58%, driven by declining Democratic turnout and growing disaffection among black voters.
“Partisanship shifted from near parity to a whopping 16-point Republican advantage in 2024,” said Valdiviez. “Top that off with dramatic plummets in Democratic turnout of over 27% in the last 12 years, and you see how this shift reflects a broader rejection of Democratic complacency, especially among working class black voters here.”
Though black voters here are migrating away from Democrats, their disaffection has a water’s edge. The Soulful South is also one of the regions we analyzed that has a positive view of the country&#8217;s direction, in part due to their disproportionate approval of Trump, which is five points higher in contrast to their general sentiments towards the Republican Party. Therein lies the rub for Republicans in a post-Trump era.
But even with Trump’s recent imposition and subsequent rollback of widespread tariffs, the same groups with a high blend of ethnicities or Democratic tendencies throughout our analysis, the Soulful South was one of the few where a majority (+9) either supported tariffs outright or trusted Trump on the issue.
Unlike their Rust Belt counterparts, for example — many of whom migrated north during two historic waves of the Great Migration (1910s–1970s) — black voters in the Soulful South remain deeply rooted in religion and legacy agrarian culture. These cultural differences forged a unique political identity, one increasingly aligned with conservative values and economic pragmatism.
<h3> The Tex-Mex Nexus</h3>
<div class="image"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-907599" src="https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2025/04/Tex-Mex-Nexus.jpeg" alt="" width="567" height="429" srcset="https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2025/04/Tex-Mex-Nexus.jpeg 567w, https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2025/04/Tex-Mex-Nexus-300x227.jpeg 300w" sizes="(max-width: 567px) 100vw, 567px" /></div>
In the Tex-Mex Nexus, we see a different story playing out — but one that still offers opportunities for Republicans.
These areas are concentrated mostly in Texas, with density in the Rio Grande Valley and along the northern portion of its border with Mexico. Also included are pockets around the Lone Star State’s biggest cities and university towns. This is an interesting region, in that urban areas and university-centric towns align so closely with large swaths of the border areas.
Voters in this region are less Hispanic and more Tejano. These individuals identify as Texans of Mexican descent and are shaped by the state&#8217;s unique history. Together, these factors contribute to a cultural identity distinct from the broader &#8220;Hispanic&#8221; label, which encompasses people from various Latin American backgrounds.
leading to a different cultural identity. It’s for this reason we haven’t seen the same huge shifts toward Trump that we saw in California Hispanics and Latinos nationwide in 2024. Though the Tex-Mex Nexus has been shifting leftward since 2012, the cultural identity which blends Southern and Tejano, has the highest percentage of registered Democratic voters (D-51, R-39). It saw the second-largest swing toward Republicans in 2024, moving nine points to the right, narrowing the Democratic advantage to only six points.
Though voters here still lean toward Democrats, the Tejano identity prioritizes economic pragmatism over progressive messaging and endless culture war breakouts — giving Republicans more runway in the future. Furthermore, 27% of this bloc is Catholic, and the Democratic Party’s habitual promotion of policies and values in direct opposition to Catholics fuels this departure.
The Tex-Mex Nexus once looked like a prime target for Democrats hoping to forge a path to victory in Texas. Now, it’s hard to see how Democrats have any opportunity here — if anything they’ll keep losing more.
A successful model of engaging and communicating with the Tex-Mex Nexus, like that of Texas Governor Greg Abbott, helps prove the normal election-cycle pandering from Democrats is an old song and dance. That’s why so many of the younger voters in these areas are less attached to the party of their grandparents and more willing to entertain conservative approaches to their key issues — job opportunities, economic stability, and lower costs of living.
Unpacking the intricacies of minority voters in the Soulful South and the Tex-Mex Nexus, combined with the analysis in this series, allows us to safely declare the end of the “demographics is destiny” era that Democrats claimed was their path to permanent majorities. It could now more easily be argued that demographics favor Republicans, with these two regions providing proof.
The South’s minority voters are rewriting the political playbook, proving that economic realities and cultural values increasingly outweigh traditional partisan loyalties. For Republicans, the opportunity to build a durable multiracial coalition is within reach — but only if they invest in meaningful, year-round engagement that addresses the issues voters care about most.
The Democratic Party, meanwhile, faces an uphill battle to rebuild trust and reverse the erosion of its once-reliable strongholds. The stakes couldn’t be higher as the South continues to grow in population, influence, and political importance.
COMING UP NEXT: In part three, we’ll drill down into the stagnant suburbs of the American South, where their inelasticity poses significant challenges to both Republicans and Democrats.

Mississippi Voters Head To The Polls

The End of Democratic Assumptions: How Minority Voters Are Reshaping Southern Politics

Minorities

Southern States

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