President <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/topic/joe-biden">Joe Biden</a> continues his slump of poor polling as his top rival Donald Trump creates more separation in both Republican primary and general election surveys. 
Trump hit a new high this week in the <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/us/general-election-trump-vs-biden-7383.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Real Clear Politics</a> average of 2024 general election polls, now leading Biden 47.2% to 44.9%. The 2.3-point difference is the former president’s largest advantage over Biden since May, according to the RCP average. Trump is also posting his highest polling numbers in the <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/us/2024_republican_presidential_nomination-7548.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">GOP primary</a> this week as he stands at 59.8% and holds a 46.3-point lead over the next closest challenger, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. 
In the five most recent polls of a general election rematch between Trump and Biden, Trump leads in all of them and posts a 6-point lead in two surveys. The most recent poll from Emerson puts Trump at 47% to Biden’s 43% in a two-way race, which is a 2-point drop for Biden since the last Emerson poll taken a month ago. Biden also fell two points in the latest survey from The Messenger/Harris X, dropping from 49% to 47% in a matter of weeks as Trump gained two points in the poll, moving from 51% to 53%. 
The most recent Morning Consult poll also showed improvement for Trump and spelled more bad news for Biden. According to two Morning Consult polls taken just a week apart, Trump moved up from 43% to 44% while Biden dropped from 42% to 41%. 
Biden’s dip in the latest polls is coupled with his continued dismal approval ratings as the country faces numerous crises at home and abroad. According to the Real Clear Politics average of the president’s approval numbers, 55.5% of Americans disapprove of Biden’s performance and 40.6% approve. Some Democrats have expressed frustration and concern about the re-election chances of the now 81-year-old commander-in-chief while saying they’re “mystified” by Trump’s resurgence. 
The former president’s climb in the polls comes amid multiple legal battles after Trump was charged with state and federal crimes related to his challenging the 2020 election results and his handling of classified documents after leaving office. 
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Trump’s dominance in the GOP primary hasn’t been affected by a thinning Republican field after former Vice President Mike Pence and Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) dropped out of the race in recent weeks. DeSantis is now neck-and-neck with former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, who also served as U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations. According to the RCP average, DeSantis currently sits at 13.5% while Haley has gained ground on him, now polling at 10.5%.

Donald Trump/Joe Biden

Latest Presidential Polls: Biden Stumbles Again As Trump Makes More Gains In Primary And General Elections

2024 Election

2024 Primaries

Donald Trump

Elections

Executive

Joe Biden

Nikki Haley

Politics

Polls

Ron DeSantis

A political statistician suggested on Monday that the Democratic Party should consider finding a new candidate to run for the White House in 2024 if President Joe Biden fails to run a &#8220;normal campaign,&#8221; becoming the latest analyst to cite concerns about his chances of winning a second term.
Nate Silver, founder and former editor-in-chief of the data-focused outlet FiveThirtyEight, expressed doubt in his <a href="https://www.natesilver.net/p/if-biden-cant-run-a-normal-campaign?utm_source=post-email-title&amp;publication_id=1198116&amp;post_id=138832028&amp;utm_campaign=email-post-title&amp;isFreemail=true&amp;r=2fku&amp;utm_medium=email" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Substack newsletter</a> about Biden’s ability to win another term in Washington D.C., noting the president’s approval ratings continue to <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">sink</a> to their lowest numbers ever.
But convincing Biden to pass the torch to a fresh candidate or go all in on a re-election campaign could get complicated either way, according to Silver — whose presidential election forecasts earned him recognition over the past two decades.
“Democrats would be taking a huge risk by replacing Biden — but they’re also taking a huge risk by nominating him,” Silver wrote.
“If Biden can’t keep up with the schedule of a typical sitting president running for re-election, or is prone to making errors when he does, voters and the media are going to notice that and Biden will wear his 80+ years like an albatross around his neck,” he later added.
Silver launched FiveThirtyEight, a data aggregation and blog site named for the number of presidential electors in the Electoral College, in 2008. He then accurately predicted the outcome of 49 out of 50 states in the presidential election between Barack Obama and John McCain.
He later sold the site that would eventually become part of the Disney umbrella. He continued to run stats until his contract expired earlier this year, and left the data-driven media outlet as broader layoffs at Disney impacted ABC News.
But Silver has remained in the game and has previously raised concerns about Biden’s political future, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/08/opinion/biden-trump-republican-debate.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">suggesting</a> the president should have announced he would not seek re-election earlier this year.
&#8220;If the choices are Biden running a reasonably normal campaign or a Mystery Democrat doing the same thing, I think it’s close,&#8221; Silver said. &#8220;But if it’s Biden running a Rose Garden campaign versus a different Democrat running a normal one, I’ll take my chances on the alternative, and Biden can join James K. Polk on the list of historically well-regarded presidents who didn’t seek a second term.&#8221;
Democrats have been in panic mode as former President Donald Trump — the leading Republican contender for the 2024 primary — <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/nate-silver-to-leave-abc-news-in-latest-media-shakeup" target="_blank" rel="noopener">recently</a> outperformed Biden in vital swing states.
Last week, Trump led Biden 46% to 44.6% in the Real Clear Politics (RCP) average, with the four most recent polls factored in by RCP all giving Trump the edge.
The former president’s 1.4-point lead is his highest over Biden since late September, when he was ahead by an average of 1.6 points. Trump has either led or been tied with Biden in the RCP average of national polls for nearly two straight months as the president struggles with low approval ratings and multiple global and national crises.
A New York Times/Siena poll released earlier this week caught the attention of some Democrats who expressed concern about how well the former Republican president performed against Biden in critical battleground states. According to the poll, Trump led Biden in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania.
Connecticut Democrat Sen. Richard Blumenthal said Trump’s polling lead in the battleground states after numerous federal-and-state-level charges were levied against the former president left him “mystified, perplexed, bewildered and, frankly, a bit angry that people can give [Trump] credibility.”
Former Obama adviser and Democratic strategist David Axelrod appeared to lack optimism about a Biden re-election campaign.
“The stakes of miscalculation here are too dramatic to ignore,” Axelrod wrote on X. “If he continues to run, he will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. What he needs to decide is whether that is wise; whether it’s in HIS best interest or the country’s?”
But Biden and his campaign reportedly dismissed the polls from left-wing outlets.
Zach Jewell contributed to this report.

President Biden Meets Indonesian President Joko Widodo

Political Statistician Airs Concerns Over Dems Running A Biden Re-Election Ticket

Democratic Party

Nate Silver

Former President <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/topic/donald-trump" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Donald Trump</a> has increased his lead in the Real Clear Politics average of national polls against President Joe Biden in recent weeks as Democrats sound alarm bells about Biden’s chances in 2024. 
Trump leads Biden 46% to 44.6% in the <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/us/general-election-trump-vs-biden-7383.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">RCP average</a> as of Wednesday afternoon with the four most recent polls factored in by RCP all giving Trump the edge. The former president’s 1.4-point lead is his highest over Biden since late September when he was ahead by an average of 1.6 points. Trump has either led or been tied with Biden in the RCP average of national polls for nearly two straight months as the president struggles with low approval ratings and multiple global and national crises. 
The latest poll from CNN, conducted between October 27 and November 2, puts Trump at 49% to Biden’s 45%. Trump leads Biden 44% to 42% in a Morning Consult poll taken last week, and he’s up 51% to 48%, according to a CBS News poll conducted between October 30 and November 2. A Messenger/Harris X <a href="https://themessenger.com/politics/poll-trump-continues-to-lead-biden-exclusive" target="_blank" rel="noopener">poll</a> conducted last week also has Trump in the driver’s seat 51% to 49%. 
A common theme among the surveys was how much weight respondents placed on the economy as the biggest issue going into 2024. According to the <a href="https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/24130797/cnn-poll-on-2024.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CNN poll</a>, 33% of respondents said the economy was the most important issue to them while 12% of respondents said voting rights/election integrity and immigration were the most important issues. The <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-vs-biden-poll-2024-presidential-election-year-out/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CBS News poll</a> found that only 30% of respondents said the economy was in good condition while 66% said the economy was doing poorly. The same CBS News poll also found that registered voters were more likely to have a positive outlook on their finances under Trump than under Biden. 
A New York Times/Siena <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/11/07/us/elections/times-siena-battlegrounds-registered-voters.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">poll</a> released earlier this week got the attention of some Democrats who expressed worry about how well the former Republican president performed in important battleground states against Biden. In the poll, Trump led Biden in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. 
Sen. Richard Blumenthal said he was “mystified” by Trump’s polling lead in the battleground states after numerous federal- and state-level charges were levied against the former president.
“I have no explanation based on my lifetime in paying attention to American civic life and politics. In most times in our history, one indictment would have been enough to disqualify a presidential candidate for the types of crimes alleged,” Blumenthal said, according to <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/4298365-senate-democrats-mystified-dismayed-by-trump-lead-over-biden/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Hill</a>. “I’m mystified, perplexed, bewildered and, frankly, a bit angry that people can give [Trump] credibility.”  
On Biden, the Democrat senator praised the president’s handling of foreign policy issues, but admitted that many people are concerned about the 80-year-old running for a second term. 
“I hear immense praise for what he has done and how well he is doing on foreign policy and on extremism at home. He’s doing everything right, is what I’m hearing. And yet there’s this lingering concern about electability,” said Blumenthal. 
Blumenthal’s concern was echoed by his fellow Senators Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI), Dick Durbin (D-IL), and John Tester (D-MT) who all said they want to see Biden perform better in the polls, but added that the president still has a year to pick up some momentum. Former Obama adviser and Democratic strategist David Axelrod wasn’t as optimistic about a Biden re-election campaign, however. 
“The stakes of miscalculation here are too dramatic to ignore,” Axelrod wrote on X. “If he continues to run, he will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. What he needs to decide is whether that is wise; whether it’s in HIS best interest or the country’s?”

Latest Presidential Polls: Democrats Panic As Trump Outperforms Biden In Vital Swing States

Democrats

&#8220;The View&#8221; host Sara Haines lamented the Democrats&#8217; lack of options going into the 2024 presidential election, saying that the party didn&#8217;t really have the &#8220;privilege&#8221; of a candidate other than President Joe Biden.
Haines began by referencing the most recent poll numbers — which have only gotten worse for Biden as he approaches the last year of his term. She then noted that even if Biden were to step aside, the traditionally logical next choice seemed to be a non-starter as well — mainly because Vice President Kamala Harris was doing worse in polls than Biden.
WATCH:
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Sara Haines argues Democrats don&#39;t have &quot;the privilege of another candidate&quot; and noted &quot;Vice President Harris is polling even worse&quot; than him and &quot;You can&#39;t step over her.&quot; <a href="https://t.co/T32MyWX1uj">pic.twitter.com/T32MyWX1uj</a>
&mdash; Nicholas Fondacaro (@NickFondacaro) <a href="https://twitter.com/NickFondacaro/status/1721563189014405180?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 6, 2023</a></blockquote>
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The conversation began with cohost Ana Navarro, who said that Democrats should be looking at Biden&#8217;s poor poll numbers as a call to action.
Saying that it was &#8220;a wake-up call to organize, to mobilize, to register people, to talk about the accomplishments of this administration,&#8221; Navarro added, &#8220;Stop clutching your pearls and get to work.&#8221;
Haines responded by expressing her concern that Democrats didn&#8217;t have many options left, saying, &#8220;With all the disclaimers about polls in general, I do think these numbers were really echoing what we&#8217;ve been hearing lately, of people saying they had concerns of certain things.&#8221;
&#8220;I see it more as a campaign strategy, because I think the privilege of another candidate is just not there. What&#8217;s the — when they talk about Biden stepping down, what&#8217;s the next choice? Where do you go from there?&#8221; she asked. &#8220;Because now you talk about Vice President Harris, who is polling, if we would go with the polling, even worse. But you can&#8217;t step over her, so what are you doing in this one-year runway?&#8221;
Haines went on to say that the one thing she had seen that shocked her was polling indicating that former Governor Nikki Haley (R-SC) might do well in a head-to-head match-up with former President Donald Trump – who is currently leading a still-crowded field by a wide margin in the Republican primary.

SARA HAINES

‘The View’ Host Complains Democrats Don’t Have The ‘Privilege’ Of A 2024 Candidate Who Isn’t Biden

'The View' Host Complains Democrats Don't Have The 'Privilege' Of A 2024 Candidate Who Isn't Biden

Kamala Harris

Media

The View

Independent presidential candidate <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/topic/robert-f-kennedy-jr" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Robert F. Kennedy Jr.</a> took nearly a quarter of the vote in a new poll examining a hypothetical three-way matchup in <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/topic/2024-election" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2024</a>.
The results of a Quinnipiac University national poll <a href="https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us11012023_uomg47.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">released</a> on Wednesday showed Kennedy with 22% support among registered voters, behind President <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/topic/joe-biden" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Joe Biden</a> with 39% and former President <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/topic/donald-trump" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Donald Trump</a> with 36%, nearly one year away from the general election.
A four-way contest, which featured Left-wing activist <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/green-party-candidate-cornel-west-democrats-beyond-redemption-bernie-and-aoc-are-window-dressing?%3Futm_source=twitter&amp;utm_medium=social&amp;utm_campaign=dwnewstwitter" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Cornel West</a> also running as an independent, put Kennedy slightly lower. That hypothetical showed Biden at 36% support, Trump at 35%, Kennedy at 19%, and West at 6%.
Crucially for Kennedy, roughly a third of independents as well as a third of younger voters under the age of 35 lean toward his candidacy across each scenario. And the poll shows he has double-digit support among minority groups, including around a third of Hispanic voters.
“With minority and younger voters seeming intrigued, Kennedy, for now, enjoys the kind of demographic support his charismatic father and uncles generated decades ago,” said Quinnipiac University polling analyst Tim Malloy.
Kennedy, the nephew of former President John F. Kennedy and son of former U.S. Attorney General Robert F. Kennedy, initially entered the 2024 contest seeking the Democratic Party&#8217;s nomination. But he <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/rfk-jr-switches-to-running-for-president-as-an-independent" target="_blank" rel="noopener">switched</a> to an independent run last month after raising complaints with how the Democrats have run their election process, <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/biden-challengers-rage-over-lack-of-2024-dem-debates" target="_blank" rel="noopener">including a lack of debates</a>. Biden still faces primary challengers in <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/democratic-congressman-launches-primary-challenge-against-president-biden" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN)</a>, who joined the race very recently, and self-help author Marianne Williamson.
Also last month, West <a href="https://apnews.com/article/cornel-west-president-independent-green-party-2024-57dd7dbc0bccc10ea866005663398823" target="_blank" rel="noopener">dropped</a> his Green Party bid to compete as an independent.
Biden and Trump have generally dominated in primary polling for their respective parties while surveys looking at a 2020 rematch between them <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/latest-presidential-polls-trump-continues-dominance-in-early-primary-states-stays-neck-and-neck-with-biden" target="_blank" rel="noopener">have been very close</a>. The new Quinnipiac poll was no exception, with the GOP primary question showing Trump at 64% support over the next-closest candidate Florida Governor Ron DeSantis at 15%, and a two-way general election competition showing Biden at 47% support and Trump at 46%.
Other options in these poll questions gave respondents the opportunity to pick someone else, say they would not vote, go undecided, or refuse.
Another area examined by the poll was candidate favorability. The survey found 31% of voters had a &#8220;favorable&#8221; opinion of Kennedy while 36% said &#8220;unfavorable.&#8221; A relatively high number — 31% — said they have not heard enough about him. Biden&#8217;s numbers were 40% &#8220;favorable&#8221; and 56% &#8220;unfavorable&#8221; while Trump got 39% &#8220;favorable&#8221; and 57% &#8220;unfavorable.&#8221;
The entire survey polled 1,610 self-identified registered voters nationwide from October 26-30, according to Quinnipiac. The pollster said the overall survey had a margin of error of plus-or-minus 2.4 percentage points.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

RFK Jr. Gets 22% In 3-Way Matchup Against Biden And Trump: Poll

U.S.

As former President <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/trump-blasts-bidens-foreign-policy-says-his-weakness-provokes-war-and-death" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Donald Trump</a> continues to dominate national and state <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/latest-presidential-polls-does-an-rfk-jr-independent-run-hurt-trump-or-biden" target="_blank" rel="noopener">polls</a> in the GOP primary, trailing Republican candidates are placing their time, energy, and money on the Iowa caucuses. 
Candidate and Senator Tim Scott (R-SC) <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/tim-scott-says-iowa-or-bust-for-his-presidential-campaign" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a> last week that for his campaign, “it’s Iowa or bust,” while Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has moved a large portion of his campaign staff to the Hawkeye State in an attempt to gain some early momentum and keep his struggling presidential bid alive. Meanwhile, former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley is gaining ground in Iowa as the caucuses approach. 
But according to the latest polls, Iowa voters still heavily favor Trump as their first-choice candidate as the calendar inches closer to the January 15 caucuses. 
According to an <a href="https://iastate.app.box.com/s/3ri8thp3v7jqgyww09iyqw6ombkuh8cp" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Iowa St./Civiqs survey</a> of 425 likely caucusgoers taken between October 6-10, Trump was the first choice among 55% of them, while DeSantis was at 17%, Haley was at 11%, tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy was at 5%, and Scott sat at 4%. For caucusgoers’ second choice, DeSantis led with 22%, above Haley (18%), Ramaswamy (16%), Scott (13%), and Trump (8%). 
Trump’s lead in Iowa wasn’t as large, according to the most recent <a href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/caucus/2023/10/30/iowa-poll-donald-trump-leads-ron-desantis-nikki-haley-tied-presidential-candidates-gop-caucus/71342485007/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">poll</a> conducted by the Des Moines Register and NBC News. That survey, conducted between October 22-26, found that 43% of caucusgoers picked the former president as their first choice while DeSantis and Haley tied at 16% in what the pollsters said was a big win for Haley, the former U.S. ambassador to the U.N. Haley’s good showing in the poll was bolstered by independents, 22% of whom picked her as their first choice compared to 12% who chose DeSantis. Trump leads among independents with 33% marking him as their first choice. 
DeSantis was the leading candidate for second choice, according to the poll, as 27% of likely caucusgoers said the Florida governor is their second pick compared to 17% who marked Haley as their number two choice. 
There was more good news for Trump in the Des Moines Register/NBC News poll, which found that nearly two-thirds of the Republican caucusgoers who picked Trump said their minds were made up to vote for him as their first-choice candidate. Only 30% of DeSantis voters and 26% of Haley voters said their minds were made up, while 70% of DeSantis voters and 74% of Haley supporters said they could still be persuaded to vote for someone else as their first choice candidate.  
While the poll on its surface didn’t look great for the DeSantis campaign, there was a bright spot for the Florida governor. According to the survey, DeSantis has the same &#8220;footprint of support in Iowa&#8221; as Trump. The Des Moines Register wrote, “Likely Republican caucusgoers were asked their first choice for president, their second choice and which of the other Republican candidates they were actively considering. The total represents a candidate’s full footprint of support in Iowa, where likely caucusgoers often weigh several candidates before zeroing in on their Caucus Day choice.” 
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Both Trump and DeSantis had a footprint of 67%, Haley sat at 54%, Scott was at 49%, and Ramaswamy was at 32%. But with 63% of Trump’s voters saying their minds are made up to go with the former president, trailing candidates have a lot of ground to make up even to make the Iowa race competitive come January 15. 
The Real Clear Politics <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/ia/2024_iowa_republican_presidential_caucus-8164.html">average</a> of Iowa polls shows Trump (48.8%) leading DeSantis (17.3%) by 31.5 percentage points. Haley (11.5%) sits in third place in the state over Scott (6.0%), and Ramaswamy (5.3%).

Ron DeSantis/Donald Trump/Nikki Haley

Latest Presidential Polls: All Eyes On Iowa

Iowa

Iowa Caucuses

Republican Primary

Former Democratic candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. threw a wrench in the 2024 presidential race earlier this month when he announced he would run as an independent. With President Joe Biden caught and former President Donald Trump stuck in a statistical polling tie, a looming question remains: who loses votes to RFK Jr.? 
Three of the most recent polls take the question into consideration, but voters will likely be disappointed to find that the answer is murky. Two of the polls appear to show that Trump is hurt the most by RFK Jr.’s independent bid, while the third poll indicates that RFK Jr. takes more vital independent votes away from Biden than from Trump. 
A USA Today/Suffolk University <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2023/10/23/biden-trump-rfk-jr-poll/71281814007/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">poll</a> released on Monday found that in a four-way race between Biden, Trump, and the two independents — RFK Jr. and Cornel West — Biden and Trump are tied at 37% while Trump loses more voters to RFK Jr. than Biden does. Among the 1,000 registered voters surveyed by USA Today, 13% said they support RFK Jr., who drew potential Republican voters away from Trump by a 2-1 margin. Leftist political activist Cornel West took votes away from Biden, but sitting at 4% in the poll, West’s effect on Biden was minimal. 
The USA Today/Suffolk poll found that RFK Jr.’s independent run cost Trump what would have been a narrow lead. 
A Messenger/HarrisX <a href="https://themessenger.com/politics/poll-rfk-jr-throws-wrench-into-2024-race-between-trump-biden-exclusive" target="_blank" rel="noopener">poll</a> released on Tuesday similarly found that Trump loses ground when an RFK Jr. independent run is factored in, but according to this poll, the difference isn’t enough to take away Trump’s polling lead. According to the Messenger/HarrisX poll, Trump leads Biden 45% to 41%, but when the independent candidates are added into the mix, Trump drops to 38% and Biden falls to 35% while RFK Jr. again takes 13% of the support. While Trump’s overall support dropped seven points because of RFK Jr., his lead over Biden only suffered a one-point drop. 
Dritan Nesho, CEO and chief pollster at HarrisX, said that “RFK Jr. pulls equal numbers of 2020 Trump and Biden voters,” but it’s the all-important independent voters that should worry the Trump campaign. Nesho said RFK Jr. won “the lion&#8217;s share of undecided Independents, hurting Trump more than Biden in the process and thus making the horserace closer.” 
That comment might revive bad memories for the Republican Party whose candidate George H.W. Bush lost to Democrat Bill Clinton in 1992 thanks to an independent run by conservative businessman Ross Perot. But the Trump campaign likely isn’t sweating an RFK Jr. independent run yet. The findings from HarrisX are put into question by a Harvard/Harris <a href="https://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/HHP_Oct23_KeyResults.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">poll</a>, which shows that RFK Jr. leads Biden among independent voters while Trump takes the most of the independent vote. 
The Harvard/Harris survey of over 2,000 registered voters, conducted on October 18 and 19, showed a much bleaker outcome for Biden than it did for Trump when factoring in RFK Jr.’s independent bid. Trump, sitting at 39%, leads a four-way race over Biden (31%), RFK Jr. (18%), and Cornel West (3%) while 9% said they were unsure, according to the poll. Meanwhile, among those who remained undecided, 41% lean toward Trump, 34% lean toward Biden, and 21% lean toward RFK Jr.  
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The RFK Jr. shakeup caused a stir between the Trump and DeSantis campaigns after Florida Governor Ron DeSantis said the independent candidate would hurt Trump’s chances more than they would hurt his own chances if he were the nominee. 
“RFK Jr. will be a vessel for anti-lockdown and anti-Fauci voters if Trump is the nominee,” DeSantis told a group of New Hampshire voters during a campaign stop earlier this week. “If I’m the nominee, they all go to me because I stood up against Fauci, I’m going to clean out the CDC … it’s a big part of my platform. With Trump, though, he created Fauci, he elevated Fauci; he never fired him.” 
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Kennedy conundrum: Ron DeSantis says he’d be stronger against RFK Jr. in a general election than Donald Trump because of his anti-Fauci and anti-lockdown platform. 
“He would hurt Trump,” DeSantis says of Kennedy at a New Hampshire campaign stop. <a href="https://t.co/KUOAejWx8H">pic.twitter.com/KUOAejWx8H</a>
&mdash; Stephanie Murray (@stephanie_murr) <a href="https://twitter.com/stephanie_murr/status/1716811524814344551?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 24, 2023</a></blockquote>
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The Trump campaign responded to DeSantis’ comments with chief spokesman Steven Cheung, <a href="https://twitter.com/stephanie_murr/status/1716829210294288722" target="_blank" rel="noopener">telling</a> the Messenger that “Ron DeSantis is a dumbass to have that type of uninformed take.” 
Trump holds a massive lead in the GOP primary, <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/us/2024_republican_presidential_nomination-7548.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">according</a> to the Real Clear Politics polling average, sitting at 59.1% to DeSantis’ 12.6%. The RCP <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/us/general-election-trump-vs-biden-7383.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">average</a> also shows Trump currently leading Biden by less than one percentage point.

Joe Biden/RFK Jr./Donald Trump

Latest Presidential Polls: Does An RFK Jr. Independent Run Hurt Trump Or Biden?

Bad <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/topic/polls" target="_blank" rel="noopener">polling</a> numbers for President <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/topic/joe-biden" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Joe Biden</a> are fueling concerns about his 2024 re-election campaign seeking a second term in the <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/topic/white-house" target="_blank" rel="noopener">White House</a>.
Biden&#8217;s <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president-biden-job-approval-7320.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">job approval figures</a> have dropped to the low 40s on average while some polls indicate a hypothetical 2020 rematch <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/us/general-election-trump-vs-biden-7383.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">leaning in favor</a> of former President <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/topic/donald-trump" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Donald Trump</a>.
Then there is the fact that Biden is already the oldest person to be president at 80. In recent polls, voters have expressed <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/another-poll-shows-grim-numbers-for-biden-on-age-question" target="_blank" rel="noopener">deep reservations</a> about the president regarding his age and fitness to lead effectively.
Amid a growing debate about whether Biden should step aside, Democratic strategist James Carville recently summed up the dilemma for his party <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2023/09/25/carville_on_75_not_wanting_biden_to_run_again_thats_a_big_fcking_number.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">during a conversation</a> on HBO host Bill Maher&#8217;s &#8220;Club Random.&#8221;
&#8220;If we had somebody under 60 and ran against Trump, we would get 55%. &#8230; I don&#8217;t like when people take one poll and you extrapolate too much of it. I&#8217;ve seen the last eight polls and they&#8217;re all the same,&#8221; he said.
&#8220;Seventy-three percent to 77% of the country does not want Biden to run again — I&#8217;m just going to round that to 75. Okay?&#8221; Carville added. &#8220;That&#8217;s a big f***ing number, man.&#8221;
A lot could change in the next 405 days until the <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/topic/2024-election" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2024 election</a>, but in the past few weeks, Biden has faced increased pressure to drop out of the race as a myriad of issues pile up, including an <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/mccarthy-launches-impeachment-inquiry-into-biden-mutually-assured-destruction-can-be-a-good-thing" target="_blank" rel="noopener">impeachment inquiry</a>, a <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/buttigieg-claims-biden-did-what-needed-to-be-done-with-migrant-surge" target="_blank" rel="noopener">surge in migrants</a>, and a possible <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/topic/government-shutdown" target="_blank" rel="noopener">government shutdown</a>.
<a href="https://www.dailywire.com/topic/msnbc" target="_blank" rel="noopener">MSNBC</a> host <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/topic/joe-scarborough" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Joe Scarborough</a> said on his &#8220;Morning Joe&#8221; show that Democrats <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/msnbc-host-says-democrats-admit-off-air-that-biden-is-too-old-to-run-for-second-term" target="_blank" rel="noopener">concede off the air</a> that Biden is too old to seek another term. And Washington Post columnist David Ignatius <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/09/12/biden-trump-election-step-aside/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">called</a> on Biden to end his 2024 campaign with Vice President Kamala Harris as his running mate, who has also struggled with <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/approval/kamala-harris/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">low approval numbers</a>.
&#8220;It’s painful to say that, given my admiration for much of what they have accomplished,&#8221; <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/09/12/biden-trump-election-step-aside/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Ignatius wrote</a>. &#8220;But if he and Harris campaign together in 2024, I think Biden risks undoing his greatest achievement — which was stopping Trump.&#8221;
Former presidential candidate Andrew Yang, who started his own Forward Party, <a href="https://twitter.com/AndrewYang/status/1706660725974859912" target="_blank" rel="noopener">shared</a> in a post to X on Tuesday, &#8220;I’m hearing that recent polling has shaken some Dems enough that potential primary challengers to Biden from within the party are taking another look at it.&#8221;
So far, Biden dominates a small field in <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/democratic_nomination_polls/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">primary surveys</a> focused on the Democratic Party. He regularly got about 60% to 70% support in polls this past month, while the next closest competitor, <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/topic/robert-f-kennedy-jr" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Robert Kennedy Jr.</a>, hovered between single digits and numbers in the teens.
But another competitor still could enter the picture.
Rep. Dean Philips (D-MN) <a href="https://news.yahoo.com/dem-congressman-wont-rule-2024-162832551.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a> he is thinking about challenging Biden for their party&#8217;s nomination, though the congressman noted that he believes &#8220;there are people who are more proximate, better prepared to campaign with national organizations, national name recognition.&#8221;
California Governor <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/topic/gavin-newsom" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Gavin Newsom</a> is seen as a rising star in the Democratic Party and a contender if he did jump in the race. So far, Newsom has deferred to Biden and his re-election effort, but he is making waves with his efforts to counter GOP messaging — including with a <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/desantis-on-his-upcoming-debate-with-newsom-florida-already-won-the-debate" target="_blank" rel="noopener">planned debate</a> against Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, another Republican presidential candidate.
White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/press-briefings/2023/09/25/press-briefing-by-press-secretary-karine-jean-pierre-and-secretary-of-agriculture-tom-vilsack/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">dismissed</a> Biden&#8217;s low approval numbers during a press briefing on Monday.
&#8220;Polls are polls — right? — they are going to be all over the place. They are going to — they’re going to — you know, they don’t tell the whole story, actually. And that is just the way a poll is,&#8221; she said.
Sen. Chris Coons (D-DE), who was picked as a <a href="https://ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/news/2023/04/25/biden-campaign-2024-whitmer-katzenberg-clyburn" target="_blank" rel="noopener">co-chair</a> of Biden&#8217;s re-election campaign, appeared a little more troubled by the numbers while trying to convey some optimism.
&#8220;Right now, the polls head-to-head are more concerning than I would expect, but I would so much rather be in this position of having an incredible record for our president to run on,&#8221; <a href="https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1706384857398460646" target="_blank" rel="noopener">he told CNN</a>.
There is some pushback to the negative headlines for Biden being generated from the polling bonanza by the very news agencies that commissioned a survey that found Trump with a <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/new-wapo-abc-news-poll-shows-trump-with-commanding-lead-over-biden" target="_blank" rel="noopener">commanding lead</a> by <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/troubles-biden-age-reelection-campaign-poll/story?id=103436611">9</a> or <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/09/24/biden-trump-poll-2024-election/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">10</a> points.
The Washington Post suggested its latest poll in partnership with ABC News was an <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/09/24/biden-trump-poll-2024-election/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">&#8220;outlier&#8221;</a> when <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/latest-2024-presidential-polling-trump-rises-above-biden-again" target="_blank" rel="noopener">compared</a> to other public polls and noted the &#8220;unusual makeup of Trump’s and Biden’s coalitions in this survey.&#8221; ABC News Political Director Rick Klein <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/week-transcript-9-24-23-secretary-pete-buttigieg/story?id=103437645" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a> on Sunday&#8217;s &#8220;This Week&#8221; their poll had some &#8220;quirks&#8221; and &#8220;oddities around the number of black voters and Hispanic voters, the younger voters who seem to be supporting Donald Trump.&#8221;
A top Republican in Congress, Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY), argued the fresh polling numbers are no fluke.
&#8220;It’s not an outlier,&#8221; the House Republican Conference chairwoman <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/new-wapo-abc-news-poll-shows-trump-with-commanding-lead-over-biden" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a> in a post to X on Sunday. &#8220;The elitist Left and their stenographers in the mainstream media should talk to more voters across America. President Trump has historic support in Upstate New York and all across the country!&#8221;
Trump faces his own hurdles. Though Trump has a large lead over the GOP field, he still needs to <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/us/2024_republican_presidential_nomination-7548.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">secure his party&#8217;s nomination</a> while a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/29/us/trump-pac-legal-fees.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">great deal of resources</a> are being spent on helping him combat four criminal indictments. And though age is seen as <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/another-poll-shows-grim-numbers-for-biden-on-age-question" target="_blank" rel="noopener">less of an issue</a> for 77-year-old Trump than it is for Biden, a recent poll <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/another-poll-shows-grim-numbers-for-biden-on-age-question" target="_blank" rel="noopener">found</a> nearly half of voters said Trump is too old.
Still, Trump and Biden are effectively locked in for a battle of messaging before the primary season truly gets underway with the first voting contests starting in January.
Biden <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/another-poll-shows-grim-numbers-for-biden-on-age-question" target="_blank" rel="noopener">traveled to Michigan</a> on Tuesday to join the United Auto Workers (UAW) picket line while Trump is expected to deliver a speech to striking auto workers in Detroit on Wednesday instead of attending the second GOP primary debate.
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Politicon 2019 – Day 1

Even James Carville Admits Biden Has A ‘Big F***ing’ Polling Problem

Readers Pass

The hosts of ABC’s midday talk show “The View” aired their grievances about a recent poll showing former President Donald Trump beating President Joe Biden in a head-to-head match-up.
The cohosts addressed the poll in question — which showed Trump holding a ten-point lead over Biden — during Monday’s broadcast.
WATCH:
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The View freaks out and attacks a poll from their own network (ABC) because it shows Trump up 10 points over Biden. Faux conservative Alyssa Farah Griffin calls the poll &quot;an outlier.&quot; But she warns that Biden has a reelection problem with poor approval ratings and other things. <a href="https://t.co/2qr5AEnbSR">pic.twitter.com/2qr5AEnbSR</a>
&mdash; Nicholas Fondacaro (@NickFondacaro) <a href="https://twitter.com/NickFondacaro/status/1706342172839104738?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 25, 2023</a></blockquote>
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Republican cohost Alyssa Farah Griffin attempted to qualify the results, suggesting that the poll was “an outlier” — but she did note that Biden certainly has some weak points going into his 2024 reelection campaign.
Griffin pointed to his consistently low job approval ratings — and concerns from both sides of the political aisle about his advanced age and mental acuity.
Cohost Sunny Hostin turned the attack on Trump then, arguing that the polls meant nothing as long as Trump’s trials had not yet begun.
Ana Navarro suggested that the pollsters had been “high” when they gave their responses, and went on to claim that the economy was in better shape under Biden — despite other <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/weekend-media-wrap-vol-10-what-you-missed-if-you-werent-glued-to-the-sunday-shows">polls</a> showing that nearly half of Americans believed that they were worse off financially since Biden had taken office.
WATCH:
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Whoopi says the &quot;problem&quot; is the &quot;messaging&quot; from the news media is off and they&#39;re not striking enough fear of Trump getting reelected. Sunny is forced to read a legal note saying ABC&#39;s pollsters were not &quot;high&quot; when conducting the poll and they abruptly ended the segment. <a href="https://t.co/SaHmFVpyIL">pic.twitter.com/SaHmFVpyIL</a>
&mdash; Nicholas Fondacaro (@NickFondacaro) <a href="https://twitter.com/NickFondacaro/status/1706344222423478672?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 25, 2023</a></blockquote>
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Whoopi Goldberg weighed in next, blaming the media for not doing enough to scare people off from voting for former President Trump and suggesting that if media outlets were better at “messaging,” no one would support him anyway.
Hostin spoke up again then, saying that the network had called on her to read a legal note — after which she conceded that the people polled had not, in fact, been “high” (as Navarro had suggested) when they gave their responses on the ABC poll.

American Ballet Theatre’s 2022 Fall Gala

‘The View’ Hosts Go Off On Their Own Network Over Poll That’s Bad For Biden

'The View' Hosts Go Off On Their Own Network Over Poll That's Bad For Biden

Alyssa Farah Griffin

Sunny Hostin

Whoopi Goldberg

Former President Donald Trump’s massive lead in the Republican primary has grown even larger, according to the latest Real Clear Politics polling average. 
Trump, who has enjoyed a lead in the polls since announcing his candidacy in November 2022, is currently sitting at 58.8% in the national <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/us/2024_republican_presidential_nomination-7548.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">RCP average</a>, a new high for the former president as he faces a crowded field of GOP challengers. Trump leads his closest challenger, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who sits at 12.5%, by nearly 50 percentage points as DeSantis has fallen more than ten percentage points in the polling average since early June.
Those trailing behind Trump and DeSantis are tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy (7.5%), former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley (5.0%), former Vice President Mike Pence (4.1%), former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie (2.3%), and Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina (2.3%). North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum and former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson, who both qualified for the first GOP debate last month, are both polling below 1%, according to the RCP average. 
In each of the latest three polls, which came from Emerson, Yahoo News, and Morning Consult, Trump polled at 59%, while Harvard-Harris and Economist/YouGov polls taken earlier last week put Trump at 57% and 55%, respectively. DeSantis&#8217; best showing nationally came in the Economist/YouGov poll, which has shown him at 16% in each of its last three polls. Ramaswamy hit double digits at 10% in the Morning Consult poll and came within two percentage points of DeSantis in the Harvard-Harris poll. 
The positive polling for Trump also transfers to a hypothetical general election matchup with President Joe Biden as Trump has <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/latest-2024-presidential-polling-trump-rises-above-biden-again" target="_blank" rel="noopener">taken over</a> the lead, <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/us/general-election-trump-vs-biden-7383.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">beating</a> Biden 45.1% to 44.6% nationally. 
Trump’s decision to skip the first Republican debate appears to have had no effect on his polling nationally, and the former president will also <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/trump-plans-to-skip-second-gop-debate-to-rally-with-striking-autoworkers" target="_blank" rel="noopener">skip the second debate</a> next week, opting instead to speak to striking auto workers in Detroit. 
It remains unclear whether Trump will lose support in the polls for his latest comments on abortion, which were harshly criticized by many conservatives. Trump was interviewed by journalist Kristen Welker on “Meet the Press,” telling the journalist that he thinks it was “<a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/governors-kemp-reynolds-push-back-on-trump-calling-heartbeat-laws-a-terrible-thing" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a terrible mistake</a>” for Republican states to pass six-week abortion bans, also known as heartbeat bills. 
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While Trump enjoys a nearly 50 percentage point lead nationally, his support in Iowa, the first caucus state in the GOP primary, remains under 50%. As <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/latest-presidential-polls-where-the-candidates-stand-in-iowa" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported</a> last week, Trump stands at 46.0% in Iowa, and DeSantis holds second place at 15.8%, according to the latest RCP average. Scott (9.0%) and Haley (7.0%) got a recent boost in the state, coming in third and fourth place. Ramaswamy (6.5%), Pence (3.5%), Christie (3.5%), and Burgum (2.5%) round out the polling of candidates who hit above 2% in Iowa.

Latest Presidential Polls: Trump’s National Lead Hits New High

Latest Presidential Polls: Trump's National Lead Hits New High

Former President <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/topic/donald-trump">Donald Trump</a> has again surpassed President <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/topic/joe-biden">Joe Biden</a> in <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/topic/polls">polling</a> for a hypothetical face-off with about 415 days until the <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/topic/2024-election">2024 general election</a>.
With four out of seven polls taken this month leaning toward Trump, the Republican boasted a 0.6 percentage point edge over Biden as of Sunday, according to <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/us/general-election-trump-vs-biden-7383.html">a RealClearPolitics (RCP) average</a>.
The two have traded places multiple times since the aggregator began to keep track in November 2022 — when Trump announced his candidacy — with leads going as high as 2.5-2.8 percentage points. The last time Trump had an advantage in the RCP polling average was in July.
Trump is the front-runner in polling for the GOP nomination contest with 56.6 percent support. Florida Governor <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/topic/ron-desantis">Ron DeSantis</a> has remained in second place all along, but <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/us/2024_republican_presidential_nomination-7548.html">RCP&#8217;s tracker shows</a> his average dropping from a peak of 31.3% in January.
Biden dominates a much smaller field in <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/democratic_nomination_polls/">primary surveys</a> focused on the Democratic Party. He regularly gets about 40% to 60% support, while the next closest competitor, Robert Kennedy Jr., hovers between single digits and numbers in the teens.
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In recent polls, voters have expressed <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/another-poll-shows-grim-numbers-for-biden-on-age-question">deep reservations</a> about Biden regarding his age (80) and fitness to lead effectively. Respondents also have age concerns about Trump, who is 77, but not to the same degree. Biden also is contending with an <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/mccarthy-launches-impeachment-inquiry-into-biden-mutually-assured-destruction-can-be-a-good-thing">impeachment inquiry</a> into corruption allegations that House Speaker <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/topic/kevin-mccarthy">Kevin McCarthy</a> (R-CA) announced last week.
Meanwhile, Trump is facing four criminal cases as well as civil litigation. His legal defense effort is sapping up <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/29/us/trump-pac-legal-fees.html">a great deal of resources</a> as well as media attention. But Trump has denied any wrongdoing, pleaded not guilty to the charges he faces, and claims that politically motivated prosecutors are conducting a &#8220;witch hunt&#8221; against him.
Although polling is leaning in Trump&#8217;s favor as he seeks a 2020 rematch against Biden, a different metric still gives the incumbent an advantage. RCP&#8217;s <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting-odds/2024/president/">betting odds average</a> for the presidential contest shows Biden ahead with 32.6 over Trump&#8217;s 29. DeSantis, who led the field as recently as early February, has dropped to 6.4, behind California Democratic Governor <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/topic/gavin-newsom">Gavin Newsom</a> at 7.4. Newsom has not declared a candidacy for the White House at this time.

Former President Trump

Latest 2024 Presidential Polling: Trump Rises Above Biden Again

Republican presidential candidates hit the Iowa trail in recent weeks as potential nominees court voters who will partake in the nation’s first caucuses. 
Many of the GOP candidates attended the Iowa State Fair last month and the annual Iowa-Iowa State college football game over the weekend, trying to convince voters that they are the best option to beat President Joe Biden in 2024. State polling continues to show former President Donald Trump in a commanding lead in Iowa, but according to some recent polls, both Trump and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis have slightly dipped as other candidates got a small boost. 
Trump stands at 46.0%, and DeSantis holds second place at 15.8%, according to the latest Real Clear Politics <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/ia/2024_iowa_republican_presidential_caucus-8164.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">average</a> in Iowa. Two candidates from South Carolina have seen a recent boost in the Hawkeye State, as Sen. Tim Scott now sits at 9.0% and former Governor Nikki Haley improved to 7.0%, according to the RCP average. Tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy (6.5%), former Vice President Mike Pence (3.5%), former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie (3.5%), and North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum (2.5%) round out the polling of candidates who hit above 2% in Iowa. 
Trump’s polling in Iowa dropped significantly between May and last week, according to the latest Emerson poll. The former president stood at 62%, according to an Emerson poll taken in late May, but that dropped to 49% in the <a href="https://emersoncollegepolling.com/iowa-2024-biden-and-trump-remain-frontrunners-in-caucuses-but-both-losing-ground/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">poll</a> released last week. DeSantis also took a slight tumble, according to Emerson, dropping from 20% to 14% in the same time period. The May Emerson poll showing the Florida governor at 20% was released days before he officially launched his campaign, which has struggled to gain momentum. 
An Iowa State/Civiqs <a href="https://www.news.iastate.edu/news/2023/09/08/24caucus-poll1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">poll</a> also released last week showed similar results for Trump and DeSantis as the Emerson poll and better results for Haley, who reached 10%, just four percentage points behind DeSantis. Haley’s recent boost in Iowa comes as she’s also gained some momentum nationally. A recent CNN poll showed Haley was tied for third place with Pence at 7%, and the same <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/10/politics/nikki-haley-lead-biden-2024-poll-cnntv/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">poll</a> showed the former U.N. ambassador performing the best of any GOP candidate against Biden, beating him 49% to 43%. 
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Iowa voters will kick off the final stretch of the Republican race on January 15, 2024, when they caucus to pick their candidate for the GOP nomination. The state has a track record of picking some of the most conservative candidates to be the GOP nominee, but Republicans who won the Iowa caucuses in recent competitive races didn&#8217;t fare well in the long run. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), who won in 2016, former Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA), who won in 2012, and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, who won in 2008, all went on to lose the Republican primary.

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