Brand-new polling out of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin shows Kamala Harris’ blue wall seems to be collapsing.
If former President Trump wins North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona — which I think he will — Harris needs to hold all three of the blue wall states to win in 2024.
In recent years, those three states have been crucial. When Trump defeated Hillary Clinton, she thought that she had the blue wall locked up. But that was not the case because she had a real problem with blue-collar white men. That problem for the Democrats still exists.
In the last five Pennsylvania polls, Donald Trump is tied in two and ahead in three. Fox News has Donald Trump tied at 49%. Atlas Intel has Trump plus three. Trafalgar has Trump plus three. Emerson has a tie. Insider Advantage has Trump plus two.
Meanwhile, in Wisconsin, the race has gotten a lot closer over the course of the last few weeks. The last three polls show: Atlas Intel: Trump plus two; New York Times/Siena: Harris plus two; Trafalgar: Trump plus one. In addition, Cook Political Report <a href="https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/senate/wisconsin-senate/wisconsin-senate-shifts-lean-democrat-toss" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported</a> on Tuesday:
<blockquote>Our Swing State Project surveys last week showed Wisconsin to be the closest Senate race of the five battlegrounds polled, with Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin’s seven-point August lead shrinking to two points, 49%-47%, over GOP challenger Eric Hovde.</blockquote>
In Michigan, a lot of news about internal polling from Michigan reveal Harris is having serious problems. In the last four polls, Atlas Intel has Trump up plus four; New York Times/Siena has Harris plus one; Trafalgar has Trump up plus two and MIRS/MI News Source has Trump plus one.
In other words, these are very close states, but Trump seems to be picking up some momentum.
Not only that, the union men who are very prevalent in these three states are turning against Kamala Harris and Tim Walz. A Teamsters Union poll showed Joe Biden beating Donald Trump among Teamsters union members. As soon as Kamala Harris got in, it flipped and suddenly Trump was winning those union members 60 to 40.
<h3><a href="https://www.dailywire.com/episode/ep-2063-kamala-s-blue-wall-is-collapsing-member-exclusive" target="_blank" rel="noopener">WATCH: The Ben Shapiro Show</a></h3>
That leads to my theory that there is a very large and very quiet male pro-Trump vote. That men, particularly blue-collar white men, look at Kamala Harris and see someone who disdains traditional masculinity. The attempts to turn Doug Emhoff into an icon of the new masculinity or Tim Walz, the weirdo, into some sort of icon, what it&#8217;s like to be a “true man” in America in 2024, is not just missing its desired impact, it is exacerbating male feelings that the Democratic ticket is no longer interested in them.
Those men may have a bunch of cross-cutting concerns, including concerns about what Kamala Harris is going to do on the economy, concerns about the attack on traditional masculinity, concerns that Kamala Harris does not have them in her heart. There is a lot of good evidence to that effect, which is why Kamala Harris right now has some serious problems in these blue wall states.
The Wall Street Journal <a href="https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/kamala-harris-struggling-to-break-through-with-working-class-democrats-fear-fe2038b8">reported</a> on Tuesday:
<blockquote>Democrats have privately grown worried about Kamala Harris’s standing among working-class voters in the crucial ‘blue-wall’ states—particularly in Michigan. &#8230; Recent polling <a href="https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/survey-research/2024-swing-state-project/swing-state-polling-finds-deadlocked-presidential">shows Harris and Trump essentially tied</a> in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. &#8230; Donald Trump has assiduously courted union members and noncollege-educated white voters with a message focused on high costs, manufacturing, and the threat of China to the U.S. economy.</blockquote>
There is a culture war that has been going on in this country that is clearly evident. It can be summed up by noting that in recent weeks, Donald Trump has been holding rallies in the blue wall states and appearing on conservative podcasts like mine or appearing on Fox News. Meanwhile, Harris has been jet-setting to every single Left-wing cultural glitterati elite show she can find.
There is a vast culture gap between the kinds of people that Donald Trump is appealing to and the kinds of people that Kamala Harris is appealing to. And when you add the fact that she seems to be a self-glorifying, absolutely empty suit, that is not a good look.
Kamala Harris is out of touch. She&#8217;s an elite West Coast Left-winger from San Francisco and then Montreal and then back to California, where she lived in coastal enclaves, living the high life and drinking chardonnay at 2:00 p.m. until she was made vice president of the United States.
That appears to be the image that she is cultivating, and I&#8217;m not sure why she thinks that is good for her. I assume that she believes that if she runs up the vote with suburban white women by talking about abortion on a podcast that only women listen to, it will magically spur her to victory.
But here&#8217;s the problem.
She&#8217;s mining where she already has the gold. There&#8217;s nothing else to be found there.
If the people she needs to win over are white blue-collar men, she isn&#8217;t going to do that by going on the “Call Her Daddy” podcast.

Vice President Harris Visits North Carolina to Assess Hurricane Response

Kamala’s Blue Wall Is Collapsing

2024 Election

Ben Shapiro

Democrats

Donald Trump

Kamala Harris

Leftists

Opinion

Pennsylvania

Polls

U.S. Politics

Wisconsin

The <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/topic/wisconsin" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Wisconsin</a> Senate race is now a “toss up” between incumbent Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin and Republican challenger Eric Hovde, according to the Cook Political Report.
The election forecaster <a href="https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/senate/wisconsin-senate/wisconsin-senate-shifts-lean-democrat-toss" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> on Tuesday that the race had shifted from “lean Democratic” to “toss up” as polls show Baldwin’s lead decreasing. The move comes after a survey from Cook found that Baldwin held a 49%-47% lead over Hovde, much smaller than her seven point lead in Cook&#8217;s previous poll.
The race has tightened because Hovde had consolidated Republican support and made gains among independents, according to Cook.
&#8220;Sen. Baldwin&#8217;s radical agenda has sparked record high inflation, created chaos [at] the southern border, and made our communities less safe,” Hovde spokesman Zach Bannon <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/politics/wisconsin-senate-race-shifts-toss-up-handicapper-tammy-baldwin-fights-re-election" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a> in response to the news. “Eric Hovde is going to win because the people of Wisconsin are ready for change.&#8221;
The National Republican Senatorial Committee said that the ratings shift demonstrated that Wisconsin was ready for change.
&#8220;After 25 years in Washington, Tammy Baldwin has become the typical D.C. politician, voting in lockstep with the failed Biden agenda and hiding her Wall Street partner&#8217;s stock trades from her constituents. Wisconsinites are ready for change, and Eric Hovde has the momentum,&#8221; spokesman Tate Mitchell said.
Last week, it was <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/democrats-sounding-alarm-bells-over-holding-senate-seat-in-battleground-state-report" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported</a> that Democratic strategists were having “alarm bells” and &#8220;growing fear&#8221; about retaining Baldwin’s seat as Axios reported that her lead in internal polls had shrunk to just two points.
<a href="https://www.amiracist.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.amiracist.com/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1726313279401000&amp;usg=AOvVaw115_qPFFEePDP86-Fvo-Vd">Am I Racist? Is In Theaters NOW — Get Your Tickets Here!</a>
The Democratic fears come as Hovde has <a href="https://nypost.com/2024/09/30/us-news/senate-gop-super-pac-dumps-nearly-70m-into-pennsylvania-wisconsin-and-michigan-races/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">benefited</a> from a recent influx of cash backing his campaign. The Republican Senate Leadership Fund, a super PAC linked to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), is committing $17 million to elect Hovde.
With Democrats currently holding a 51-49 advantage in the Senate, both parties are gearing up for what is expected to be a tight battle for the majority. Republicans are currently expected to pick up seats in West Virginia and Montana, while races in states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin are all expected to be competitive.
&#8220;I wish I had better news, but four recent polls show this race statistically tied,&#8221; Baldwin <a href="https://www.facebook.com/TammyBaldwin/posts/i-wish-i-had-better-news-but-four-recent-polls-show-this-race-statistically-tied/1103397807808238/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a> in September. &#8220;Our Senate majority will come down to Wisconsin.&#8221;
Hovde and Baldwin are set to debate on October 18 in Madison, just weeks before Election Day.

Republican Vice Presidential Nominee JD Vance Holds News Conference On Crime And Safety In Kenosha, Wisconsin

Republicans Claim Momentum As Battleground Senate Race Becomes ‘Toss Up’

Elections

Politics

U.S. Senate

An extensive survey of voters in the &#8220;bellwether&#8221; Pennsylvania counties that could determine who wins the state found that former President Donald Trump holds a slim lead over Vice President Kamala Harris and is favored on the issues they say are most important to them, according to results released by Cygnal exclusively to The Daily Wire. 
The two counties, Erie and Northampton, have voted with the winning side in every election since 2008 — they sided with President Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, Donald Trump in 2016, and Joe Biden in 2020. Pennsylvania is considered one of the most important battleground states in the 2024 election with most polls showing a statistical tie between Trump and Harris.
Trump is ahead in the swing districts by just one percent, 49 to 48, according to the <a href="https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2024/10/Cygnal-Daily-Wire-PA-Bellwethers-Poll-Deck-compressed.pdf">Cygnal survey</a>.
&#8220;In a reversal from 2020, Pennsylvania’s &#8216;Bellwether Counties&#8217; have narrowly swung back to Donald Trump,&#8221; the pollster wrote, determining that the former president is winning over traditional Democrat voters that view Harris as too radical. &#8220;As Democrats have a 4-point party registration advantage in these counties, this is further evidence of these ancestral Democrats increasingly leaving the party of their forefathers.&#8221;
As with the rest of the country, the economy and immigration are at the top of mind for bellwether voters, with 31% listing inflation and the economy as their top issue, and 24% saying the biggest issue is immigration and border security. 
Former President Trump holds a 6-point lead on the economy (52-46) and a significant 15-point lead (56-41) on immigration. He’s also ahead by 6% on crime (52-46), while Harris holds a 14% advantage on abortion (53-39), though fewer than one in five bellwether voters share her position that it should be legal up until birth. 
<div class="image"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-large wp-image-808509" src="https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2024/10/Screenshot-2024-10-07-at-9.53.57-AM-851x576.png" alt="" width="851" height="576" srcset="https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2024/10/Screenshot-2024-10-07-at-9.53.57-AM-851x576.png 851w, https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2024/10/Screenshot-2024-10-07-at-9.53.57-AM-300x203.png 300w, https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2024/10/Screenshot-2024-10-07-at-9.53.57-AM-768x520.png 768w, https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2024/10/Screenshot-2024-10-07-at-9.53.57-AM-1536x1040.png 1536w, https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2024/10/Screenshot-2024-10-07-at-9.53.57-AM.png 1846w" sizes="(max-width: 851px) 100vw, 851px" /></div>
The poll found that the key for Harris is presenting herself as a moderate — only two-in-ten voters characterized Harris as a moderate, and she won the support of nearly all of them, 95%.
&#8220;This underscores the need of the Trump campaign to triple-down on defining Harris as the far-left, radical San Francisco Liberal she is,&#8221; Cygnal writes in its report. &#8220;50% of voters currently say Harris’s political ideology and beliefs are very liberal and Trump wins 87% of these voters.&#8221;
According to the new poll, half of likely voters in Pennsylvania approve of Trump’s performance in the White House, while just 39% approve of the Biden-Harris administration. 
In addition to leading in a hypothetical head-to-head, the former president also boasts a higher job approval, more trust on the issues, and a more favorable image. Even more alarming for the Harris campaign are the vice president’s and Democratic Party’s net favorability ratings (-8 and -13, respectively). Donald Trump and the Republican Party each have net favorability ratings of -4. 
<div class="image"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-large wp-image-808511" src="https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2024/10/Screenshot-2024-10-07-at-9.53.00-AM-843x576.png" alt="" width="843" height="576" srcset="https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2024/10/Screenshot-2024-10-07-at-9.53.00-AM-843x576.png 843w, https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2024/10/Screenshot-2024-10-07-at-9.53.00-AM-300x205.png 300w, https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2024/10/Screenshot-2024-10-07-at-9.53.00-AM-768x525.png 768w, https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2024/10/Screenshot-2024-10-07-at-9.53.00-AM-1536x1050.png 1536w, https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2024/10/Screenshot-2024-10-07-at-9.53.00-AM.png 1864w" sizes="(max-width: 843px) 100vw, 843px" /></div>
Polling from Cygnal indicates that Donald Trump has further solidified his support among working-class voters. He holds a 16% lead among union households and a 13% advantage with voters earning less than $100,000 a year.
While Harris holds a 27-point lead with college-educated bellwether voters, Trump is ahead by 20 points among those without a college degree. 
Harris also outperforms Trump with wealthier households — she’s up by 18 points among those earning over six figures — and women under 55 — a group she carries by 25 points. 
In addition to a wide education and wealth gap, the poll also shows a stark divide along gender lines. Harris leads by 25% with women, while Trump is ahead by 29% among men. 
According to the new polling, the decision to pass over Shapiro could prove costly in Pennsylvania. Before selecting Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate, Harris was considering Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, but was reportedly concerned that the Jewish governor’s stance on Israel was at odds with her party’s base. 
Among bellwether voters in the state, Shapiro has a plus-14-point favorability rating, while Walz sits at plus-2. And more importantly, in a hypothetical Trump/Vance — Harris/Shapiro head-to-head, the Democrats are ahead by one point (48-47).

Kamala Harris/Donald Trump

EXCLUSIVE POLL: Trump Holds Slight Edge In Pennsylvania’s Swing Counties

Tim Walz

Top pollster <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/topic/frank-luntz">Frank Luntz</a>’s focus group overwhelmingly decided that Sen. JD Vance from Ohio was the victor against Minnesota Governor Tim Walz in the <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/cbs-vp-debate-moderators-blasted-for-fact-checking-vance-and-cutting-his-mic">CBS Vice Presidential debate</a>.
Wednesday on <a href="https://x.com/FrankLuntz/status/1841521956035952733">X</a>, Luntz shared a clip of his post-debate focus group and wrote, “An overwhelming majority (12-2) said JD Vance won the debate, and also felt he was far better at communicating the MAGA agenda than Donald Trump.”
In the clip shared by the pollster, the focus group analyzed the responses of both former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris’ running mates — and found that it wasn&#8217;t even close.
Some of the answers the group gave were that Vance appeared “very battle-tested, very ready. You could just see he went to Yale and he’s very intelligent.” Another person added, “his strong control of the facts,” noting that Vance “ran the show.”
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
I joined <a href="https://twitter.com/sarasidnerCNN?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@SaraSidnerCNN</a> this morning to share results from my <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/VPDebate?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#VPDebate</a> focus group.
An overwhelming majority (12-2) said JD Vance won the debate, and also felt he was far better at communicating the MAGA agenda than Donald Trump. <a href="https://t.co/3aalhnhBX0">pic.twitter.com/3aalhnhBX0</a>
— Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) <a href="https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/1841521956035952733?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 2, 2024</a></blockquote>
One person said that Vance “humanized himself and actually looked like a regular guy.” The last comment will most likely please the Trump team after it had to battle a perception for weeks — created by Walz and the Democratic party — that Vance was “weird.”
Speaking to CNN, Luntz pointed out that the focus group loved both candidates and, if they could, they would reverse the tickets of the Republicans and Democrats, placing Vance and Walz at the top of the ticket for president.
He also said that only twice in his career, has he had a focus group that had such an overwhelmingly positive feeling about one candidate over the other as this one did about Vance.  However, he did not explain further what the other example was. 
When pressed by CNN how the group felt about Walz, he said they felt the first 30 minutes the Gov. was “stumbling” and “struggled,” but got better as the debate went on. He also said the focus group didn’t give him as high marks as Vance because they were critical of how Walz wasn’t “answering the questions” that the moderators posed to him.
The opinion that Walz did not beat Vance seemed to be a consistent one, as political commentators on the Left quickly pivoted their views to say that vice presidential debates don&#8217;t matter and are inconsequential, as previously <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/walz-falls-flat-in-debate-and-dems-pivot-from-consequential-vp-kamala-to-vps-control-nothing">reported</a>.
“Here’s the thing,” <a href="https://x.com/davidaxelrod/status/1841290392106328207">David Axelrod</a>, a former Barack Obama advisor, said. “VPs don’t make policy. Presidents do. Who talks about the Pence years?!?”
“I actually think most Americans fundamentally understand that the VP is not the President,” former Missouri Senator and MSNBC contributor <a href="https://x.com/clairecmc/status/1841303520655417476">Claire McCaskill</a> added.
Related: <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/top-pollster-predicts-vances-debate-performance-will-sway-undecided-voters" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Top Pollster Predicts Vance’s Debate Performance Will Sway Undecided Voters</a>

JD Vance/Tim Walz

Top Pollster’s Focus Group Overwhelmingly Gives Victory To Vance Over Walz In VP Debate

Top Pollster's Focus Group Overwhelmingly Gives Victory To Vance Over Walz In VP Debate

Frank Luntz

JD Vance

While most vice presidential debates have little impact on the election, a top pollster predicted on Wednesday that Sen. JD Vance&#8217;s performance against Gov. Tim Walz would convince undecided voters to show up for Republicans on November 5.
Conservatives and legacy media commentators praised Vance for appearing poised and taking numerous shots at the Democratic platform during Tuesday night&#8217;s debate. Cygnal pollster <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/this-race-is-still-trumps-kamala-trails-dems-2016-2020-polling-numbers" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Brent Buchanan</a> argued that Vance was a stark contrast to &#8220;Walz&#8217;s poor, bumbling performance.&#8221;
&#8220;We&#8217;re polling in Pennsylvania right now, and Harris would&#8217;ve been wise to pick [Pennsylvania Gov.] Josh Shapiro after Tim Walz&#8217;s poor, bumbling performance last night. Debates rarely persuade voters more than they solidify bases, but Vance&#8217;s performance last night, both in policy depth and political civility, showed undecided voters why his ticket is worth turning out for on Election Day,&#8221; Buchanan said in a statement. &#8220;Walz seemed to barely live up to the low expectations he set for himself.&#8221;
The latest polling from Cygnal, considered one of the country&#8217;s <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">most accurate</a> GOP polling firms, shows a tight race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris in battleground states, including Pennsylvania.
A Cygnal poll of battleground states from last month <a href="https://www.cygn.al/post-debate-poll-reveal-tight-race-trump-and-harris-neck-and-neck-in-key-battleground-districts/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">showed</a> Harris leading Trump in battleground states by just one percentage point. The poll was conducted after the debate between Trump and Harris, and while most of Cygnal&#8217;s respondents said Harris won the debate, Buchanan noted that the &#8220;race is still Trump&#8217;s.&#8221;
&#8220;When you look at where Biden was against Trump at this point, Harris is doing much worse in comparison,&#8221; Buchanan said last month.
The top pollster also said on Wednesday that the escalation in the Middle East between Iran and Israel, combined with a massive dockworkers&#8217; strike in the U.S., &#8220;will impact the election.&#8221;
<a href="https://www.amiracist.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.amiracist.com/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1726313279401000&amp;usg=AOvVaw115_qPFFEePDP86-Fvo-Vd">Am I Racist? Is In Theaters NOW — Get Your Tickets Here!</a>
&#8220;If Israel strikes back at Iran&#8217;s oil infrastructure, expect prices to go higher. That, along with the dockworkers&#8217; strike, is likely to cause either a spike in prices or a decrease in the availability of goods, both of which will impact the election,&#8221; he said. &#8220;Not sure this qualifies as an October surprise but these two issues set a new tone with little over a month till Election Day and offer a glimpse into how Trump or Harris might address them &#8211; the only difference is Harris currently has the power to address these challenges and she&#8217;s not showing leadership on that front.&#8221;
At the beginning of the debate, Vance and Walz were asked about Iran&#8217;s missile attack on Israel. Walz slammed Trump&#8217;s rhetoric and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G8fgGyoYu6Q" target="_blank" rel="noopener">argued</a> that the U.S. needs &#8220;steady leadership&#8221; on the world stage as Israel and Iran inch closer to a full-scale war. Vance <a href="https://www.facebook.com/WorldNewsTonight/videos/when-asked-about-the-conflict-in-the-middle-east-sen-jd-vance-said-effective-sma/1070429274617388/?_rdr" target="_blank" rel="noopener">responded</a> to Walz&#8217;s answer, saying, &#8220;Donald Trump consistently made the world more secure.&#8221;
&#8220;When did Iran and Hamas and their proxies attack Israel? It was during the administration of Kamala Harris,&#8221; Vance added.

Top Pollster Predicts Vance’s Debate Performance Will Sway Undecided Voters

Top Pollster Predicts Vance's Debate Performance Will Sway Undecided Voters

Multiple Democratic senators expressed concern that former President Donald Trump has more support from the American people than polling suggests.
After Trump performed better than the polling projections in both 2016 and 2020, Democrats told <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4891637-democratic-lawmakers-worry-pollsters/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Hill</a> in an article published on Monday that the 2024 election will be close no matter what the polls are currently showing. Trump trails Vice President Kamala Harris by 2.2 points nationally as of Monday afternoon, according to the <a href="https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris" target="_blank" rel="noopener">RealClearPolitics</a> average. The margin between Harris and Trump is closer than Biden&#8217;s lead over Trump at this point in 2020 (7 points) and Hillary Clinton&#8217;s lead at this point in 2016 (3 points).
“That’s ominous,&#8221; said one anonymous Democratic senator while discussing how Trump is performing better in the polls against Harris. &#8220;There’s no question that is concerning, but you’re working as hard as you can work, no matter what. My sense there’s not a lot more you can do than we’re already doing.&#8221;
The lawmaker added that he thinks undercounting of Trump&#8217;s support may be due to people feeling &#8220;embarrassed.&#8221;
&#8220;Most of what he preaches, most of us have taught our children to try to not be that way on the playground,&#8221; the senator said. &#8220;So there’s a certain amount of reluctance to admit I’m going to vote for somebody whose conduct I tell my children is wrong.&#8221;
Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA) warned against putting any stock in the polls, arguing, &#8220;Polling has really been seriously damaged since 2016. And that’s one of the truths, is that Trump is going to be tough in Pennsylvania, and that’s absolutely the truth.&#8221;
Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock from the battleground state of Georgia said that &#8220;the only poll that matters is Nov. 5.&#8221;
&#8220;We know this election is going to be close. It’s going to be close in the battleground states, including Georgia, which is why I’m doing everything I can to make sure we put Georgia in our column,&#8221; he said. &#8220;The only poll that matters is Nov. 5, right?&#8221;
&#8220;We talk about margin of error for a reason,&#8221; Warnock added.
Another Democratic senator who spoke to The Hill on the condition of anonymity said, &#8220;I don’t think any poll right now means much of anything.&#8221; The lawmaker added that many people are &#8220;delusionally&#8221; viewing the Trump administration&#8217;s economic policies as successful.
<a href="https://www.amiracist.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.amiracist.com/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1726313279401000&amp;usg=AOvVaw115_qPFFEePDP86-Fvo-Vd">Am I Racist? Is In Theaters NOW — Get Your Tickets Here!</a>
&#8220;I’m surprised that people look back on the Trump economy delusionally as being so good, which I think is the major factor that supports his approval rating,&#8221; the senator said.
In the all-important battleground states, Trump and Harris are essentially tied, according to <a href="https://www.realclearpolling.com/elections/president/2024/battleground-states" target="_blank" rel="noopener">RealClearPolitics</a>, and neither candidate <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/the-debate-had-no-major-effect-on-battleground-state-polling" target="_blank" rel="noopener">saw much of a change</a> in swing state polling following their September 10 debate.
&#8220;Figuring out the turnout is the hardest thing out there. This cycle there may be a surprise Trump vote and a surprise Harris vote,” Democratic pollster Celinda Lake said. &#8220;I, too, share the concern that there are going to be some surprises. What accentuates my concern is when you poll people who have not voted in ’20 but are planning to vote today, they are disproportionately Trump voters.&#8221;
&#8220;If you look at first-time voters who didn’t vote in ’20, they are leaning toward Trump and they’re very low information and they like his kind of style,&#8221; Lake added. &#8220;And they like Elon Musk and they like a lot of things like that. I worry about that. I think it’s definitely a concern, and I think we just have to get enough margin to compensate for that.&#8221;

Dem Senators Fear Trump’s Support Is Undercounted In Polls

Dem Senators Fear Trump's Support Is Undercounted In Polls

Senate Democrats

CNN hit Kamala Harris senior campaign spokesman Ian Sams with some tough poll numbers during a Monday interview, and Sams&#8217; response was essentially to reject the presented poll out of hand and substitute one that he liked better.
The CNN anchor presenting the poll — recently released by The New York Times and Siena College — conceded that not everyone believed what they saw in the polls but argued that this particular source was one that could be trusted.
WATCH:
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">
CNN: This credible New York Times/Sienna poll — 45% of voters say Trump&#39;s policies would help people like them versus just 37% for Kamala. What do you say to that?
HARRIS SPOX <a href="https://twitter.com/IanSams?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@IanSams</a>: *copes and seethes* <a href="https://t.co/uBqxE5rrv6">pic.twitter.com/uBqxE5rrv6</a>
&mdash; Trump War Room (@TrumpWarRoom) <a href="https://twitter.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1838252131985350710?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 23, 2024</a></blockquote>
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&#8220;When you look at this latest poll — and again, I know people have their views of the polls, but this is a credible New York Times/Siena College poll,&#8221; the anchor explained. &#8220;They actually asked voters about policies from both Trump and Harris that they think could impact them in the future.&#8221;
&#8220;And 45% of voters say Trump&#8217;s policies would help people like them versus just 37% for Harris. That&#8217;s looking at the future, not just the past here. What do you say to that, Ian?&#8221; she pressed Sams to respond.
The Harris campaign spokesman, rather than take the question head on, ignored the New York Times/Siena poll entirely. Instead, he brought up unspecified &#8220;Quinnipiac polls just over the last few days,&#8221; claiming that they were more favorable to Harris on specific issues.
&#8220;Well, again, there&#8217;s been some Quinnipiac polls just over the last few days that suggest a different picture of the country, of people thinking that her economic or immigration or reproductive freedom plans would help them more,&#8221; he said. &#8220;You know, the polls are going to kind of shift around a little bit.&#8221;
Of the three issues Sams listed specifically, however, the most recent <a href="https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3905" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Quinnipiac poll</a> gave Trump the edge on two. The poll, released on September 18, showed Harris beating Trump in the swing states of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan on the abortion issue — but Trump had a clear lead in all three states when it came to both the economy and immigration.

Special Assistant To The President And Spokesperson For The White House Counsel’s Office Ian Sams Speaks To The Press

WATCH: Kamala Spox Tailspins When CNN Hits Him With Damning NYT Poll

Media

New York Times

Siena College

Ten days have passed since the first and only debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, and the polling in battleground states has remained mostly unchanged, with neither candidate getting much of a bump.
Polling averages posted by <a href="https://www.realclearpolling.com/elections/president/2024/battleground-states" target="_blank" rel="noopener">RealClearPolitics</a> and <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">FiveThirtyEight</a> show that the two candidates are still neck-and-neck in the seven major battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. According to RCP, Harris leads Trump by one-tenth of a percent in the averages of battleground state polling and has seen a slight dip since the September 10 debate on ABC. Trump&#8217;s average, meanwhile, is the same as it was 10 days ago.
Trump has held onto his slight lead over Harris in <a href="https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/arizona/trump-vs-harris" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Arizona</a> in the days following the debate, while his lead over Harris in <a href="https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/georgia/trump-vs-harris" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Georgia</a> has increased to just over 1 point, per the RCP average. FiveThirtyEight&#8217;s polling average also shows Trump remaining in the lead in <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Georgia</a>, but the candidates are tied in <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Arizona,</a> with Trump seeing a small dip since the debate.
In Nevada, Harris&#8217; average has gone down since the debate, according to <a href="https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/nevada/trump-vs-harris" target="_blank" rel="noopener">RCP</a>, but <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">FiveThirtyEight&#8217;s</a> average shows the vice president&#8217;s numbers in the state staying the same over the past week while Trump&#8217;s average has slightly dipped.
The best post-debate polls for Harris came from results in <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Michigan</a> and <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Pennsylvania</a> that showed the vice president leading Trump by five points in both states. A Quinnipiac poll of more than 900 likely voters in Michigan showed Harris leading 51% to 46%, while a Quinnipiac poll of more than 1,000 likely Pennsylvania voters put Harris ahead by the same margin.
The Quinnipiac results combined with other post-debate polls, however, only slightly moved the needle in Harris&#8217; direction in the two blue wall states. The Democratic nominee&#8217;s overall average lead in Pennsylvania since the debate has increased by just over a point while her lead in Michigan has gone up by less than a point since the debate, per FiveThirtyEight.
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The debate was viewed by many as lacking in-depth policy discussions, and the ABC News moderators were slammed by conservatives for targeting Trump and favoring Harris in their real-time fact-checks. Trump told Fox News&#8217; Greg Gutfeld on Wednesday night that his &#8220;<a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/trump-says-he-regrets-not-going-after-abc-moderators-during-debate" target="_blank" rel="noopener">only regret</a>&#8221; from the debate was not &#8220;going after&#8221; moderators David Muir and Linsey Davis for their &#8220;wrong&#8221; fact-checks.
Overall, neither Trump&#8217;s nor Harris&#8217; standing in the polling averages of RealClearPolitcs and FiveThirtyEight shows much movement since their face-off on September 10, and neither candidate holds a lead larger than 3 points in any of the battleground states. Trump continues to outperform his polling numbers in battleground states at this point in both 2016 and 2020. His current numbers are 4 points better than where he was polling against President Joe Biden at this point in 2020.
Statistician Nate Silver, who founded FiveThirtyEight but now runs his own polling forecast, <a href="https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1837125195800183250" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a> on Friday that the latest polling shows &#8220;more good than bad for Harris in state polls,&#8221; but he added that the race is still a &#8220;toss-up.&#8221;
&#8220;When you&#8217;re near 50/50, a 1-point shift in the polls = about 8% of win probability shift in November,&#8221; Silver wrote. &#8220;So easy to end up on either side of the line on any given day.&#8221;
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Debate

The Debate Had No Major Effect On Battleground State Polling

Vice President Kamala Harris is not keeping up with the <a href="https://election.dailywire.com/?_gl=1*1nuwezz*_gcl_au*MjAyNjY0NDU0Mi4xNzI0MDY0OTMw*_ga*MTY1OTAyNTc3Ni4xNzI0MDY0OTMw*_ga_CZKR9ZYKJP*MTcyNjIzMTk3OS45Mi4xLjE3MjYyNDI4MTAuNjAuMC4w" target="_blank" rel="noopener">polling numbers</a> of the previous two Democratic presidential nominees at this point in the race as she remains in a neck-and-neck race with former President Donald Trump.
In top battleground states, Trump is performing more than 3 points better against Harris than he was against President Joe Biden in 2020 at this point in the campaign, according to the <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">RealClearPolitics</a> average. Polling for Trump is nearly 2 points better for him against Harris than it was for him against Hillary Clinton at this point in 2016.
The top pollster for Cygnal — one of the <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">most accurate</a> GOP polling firms in the country — said the historical polling data is bad news for Harris.
&#8220;When you look at where Biden was against Trump at this point, Harris is doing much worse in comparison,&#8221; Cygnal&#8217;s Brett Buchanan said. &#8220;In Arizona, she&#8217;s trailing Biden&#8217;s margin among younger voters by 3x (+11 v +31). Trump holds trust on the two key issues &#8211; inflation and immigration. This race is still Trump&#8217;s.&#8221;
Cygnal&#8217;s latest national poll <a href="https://www.cygn.al/national-poll-nearly-half-of-voters-blame-democrats-for-inflation-and-rising-costs-trump-harris-tied-despite-increased-participation-by-younger-voters/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">shows</a> Harris leading Trump by just 2 points — close to the RCP <a href="https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris" target="_blank" rel="noopener">national average</a>, which has Harris up by 1.5 points. At this point in 2020, Biden was leading Trump by more than 7 points nationally, per RCP.
FiveThirtyEight&#8217;s <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">average</a> of national polls gives Harris a slightly bigger lead than RCP, showing her at 48.1% to Trump&#8217;s 45.5% as of Friday morning. In the major swing states, Trump barely leads in Georgia and Arizona, while Harris has a slight edge in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, according to FiveThirtyEight. In Nevada and North Carolina, the two candidates are within 0.3 points of each other.
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Cygnal also released a <a href="https://www.cygn.al/michigan-statewide-poll-rogers-within-striking-distance-of-slotkin-as-republicans-gain-ground-across-the-state/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">poll</a> of Michigan, a vital battleground state, on Thursday, showing Harris with a slight advantage at 47% to Trump&#8217;s 46%. Both of Cygnals latest polls were conducted before the debate between Harris and Trump, but Buchanan said that he doesn&#8217;t think the debate will have much of an effect on the election.
&#8220;Mostly partisans watched the debate. Each candidate gave their base what they wanted. Undecided voters just see clips later,&#8221; he added. &#8220;Trump gave more and better sound bites, even if there are viral ones the Dems intend to hurt him. Harris left few to no sound bites and certainly did NOT deliver on economic policy specifics that matter to undecided voters.&#8221;
Trump <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/trump-declares-he-wont-debate-kamala-again" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a> on Thursday that he would not debate Harris. The debate&#8217;s moderators, ABC News&#8217; David Muir and Linsey Davis, were slammed by the former president and many conservatives for their apparent bias. Trump was fact-checked numerous times by Muir and Davis, but Harris was never fact-checked despite making multiple false statements.
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Donald Trump/Kamala Harris

‘This Race Is Still Trump’s’: Kamala Trails Dems’ 2016, 2020 Polling Numbers

'This Race Is Still Trump's': Kamala Trails Dems' 2016, 2020 Polling Numbers

Hillary Clinton

Joe Biden

An internal Trump campaign poll conducted after this week&#8217;s presidential debate shows that former President <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/topic/donald-trump" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Donald Trump</a> received a bump in his numbers following the debate while Vice President Kamala Harris remained flat.
The poll conducted by Trump campaign pollster Tony Fabrizio — one of the top pollsters in the country — focused on voters in the seven swing states where the election will be decided.
&#8220;Last night, we conducted a survey of 1,893 likely voters across our seven key target states,&#8221; a memo from the campaign said. &#8220;We found that despite the best efforts of Kamala Harris and media to portray the debate as some kind of overwhelming win for her, voters did not see it this way as support for her remained flat. The only change we saw was a 2-point bump for President Trump in both ballot configurations.&#8221;
&#8220;In last week&#8217;s data (pre-debate) from our surveys (N=5,600) across our seven target states, both the full and head-to-head ballots were split dead even,&#8221; the memo continued. &#8220;In our post-debate data, President Trump leads Vice President Harris by 2-points, 48% &#8211; 46%, and in the head-to-head ballot, he is up 3-points, 50% &#8211; 47%.&#8221;
The ballot configuration that included all of the other candidates — including Green Party candidate Jill Stein, Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Libertarian Chase Oliver, and Independent Cornel West — saw Trump gain two points after the debate to take a 48-46 lead over Harris, who saw no movement.
In the head-to-head ballot configuration, which only featured Trump and Harris, Trump gained three points after the debate and Harris dropped one point, moving the race from 48-48 before the debate to 50-47 after the debate.
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&#8220;Clearly, target state voters were not impressed by Kamala Harris&#8217; empty platitudes and while the media would have people believe she is cruising to victory, this couldn&#8217;t be farther from the truth,&#8221; the memo added.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
A Poll has just been released by Highly Respected Pollster, Tony Fabrizio, showing that I am up THREE POINTS after the Debate. These are largely Independent Voters, who are tired of watching our Country go down, and want to, MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!
Donald Trump Truth Social… <a href="https://t.co/CAGTfdkAl8">pic.twitter.com/CAGTfdkAl8</a>
— Donald J. Trump Posts From His Truth Social (@TrumpDailyPosts) <a href="https://twitter.com/TrumpDailyPosts/status/1834340465883447403?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 12, 2024</a></blockquote>

Donald Trump Holds News Conference At Trump Tower

Trump Surges Past Harris In Post-Debate Internal Poll

Debates

The critical <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/topic/wisconsin" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Wisconsin</a> Senate race between incumbent Democrat Senator <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/tammy-baldwin-pushed-for-online-censorship-now-big-tech-employees-are-backing-her-campaign" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tammy Baldwin</a> and Republican challenger Eric Hovde is within the margin of error, according to a new poll out of the Badger State.
The Marquette Law School released a poll on Wednesday <a href="https://law.marquette.edu/poll/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">showing</a> Baldwin earning 52% of registered voters to Hovde’s 48%. The margin was identical for the presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, with Harris taking 52% and Trump 48%.
With third party candidates in the race, Harris drops to 47%, Trump to 43%, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who has dropped out and backed Trump, takes 6%.
The race between Baldwin and Hovde could prove critical for control of the Senate as Democrats currently have just a two seat majority with Sen. Joe Manchin set to retire in deep red West Virginia at the end of his term.
Both results are within the 4.6 percentage point margin of error that was given for the poll, which was conducted from August 28 until September 5 and surveyed 822 registered voters in Wisconsin.
The poll found that the top three issues for voters were the economy (41%), abortion (15%), and immigration and border security (12%). Voters have generally favored Republican candidates on economic and immigration issues while backing Democrats on abortion.
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Hovde, a businessman, has focused much of his campaign on economic issues. On Tuesday, he <a href="https://erichovde.com/icymi-eric-hovde-pens-op-ed-on-inflation-crushing-wisconsinites/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">published</a> an op-ed in the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel criticizing the massive spending bills pushed by the Biden-Harris administration.
“Inflation has crushed Wisconsin families, driving up prices and making it harder than ever to get by. To fix this problem, you have to elect folks who understand the root causes and how to address them in a lasting way,” he wrote. “Through a series of legislation like the Inflation Reduction Act, Biden, Harris, and Congress have added $4.1 trillion in federal spending on top of normal appropriations acts that were already causing deficit spending. They added more debt in the last 3.5 years than during our country’s first 230-year history.”
The Marquette poll said that 72% of Democrats said that they were very excited to vote in November while only 63% of Republicans said the same.
Wisconsin is expected to be one of the key states that will determine the outcome of the presidential election, with both Trump and Harris heavily investing campaign energy in the state.

MixCollage-11-Sep-2024-03-47-PM-4248

Critical Swing State Senate Race Within Margin Of Error, New Poll Shows

Senate

Michigan Democratic Gov. <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/topic/gretchen-whitmer" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Gretchen Whitmer</a> said on Thursday that she&#8217;s &#8220;nervous&#8221; about polls giving Vice President Kamala Harris a clear advantage over former President Donald Trump in the Great Lakes State.
Speaking at the Texas Tribune Festival, Whitmer mentioned a <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/04/politics/cnn-polls-battleground-states/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CNN poll</a> of battleground states that was released earlier this week that was very favorable toward Harris in Michigan and Wisconsin. According to the poll, Harris leads Trump 48% to 43% in Michigan and 50% to 44% in Wisconsin.
&#8220;It makes me nervous to see any poll that says there&#8217;s a five-point lead for Kamala Harris in Michigan now. It&#8217;s just not true,&#8221; Whitmer said, according to <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/media/gretchen-whitmer-rejects-polls-showing-harris-up-5-points-against-trump-michigan-not-true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Fox News</a>. &#8220;It&#8217;s gonna be a very close race. I believe we can win it. And I believe we wlll, but it&#8217;s gonna be very close.&#8221;
Whitmer incorrectly stated that the CNN poll didn&#8217;t take third-party and independent candidates into account. The latest CNN poll factored in Robert F. Kennedy Jr. — who has dropped out — Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein. None of them polled above 4% in Michigan.
&#8220;In 2016, Hillary Clinton lost to Donald Trump by 11,000 votes. Jill Stein was also on our ballot and earned more than 11,000 votes,&#8221; Whitmer said.
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Kennedy has been polling the highest among independent and third-party candidates in Michigan, even after suspending his campaign. Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/michigan-dem-sos-says-rfk-jr-s-name-must-remain-on-ballot" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a> late last month that Kennedy had to remain on the Michigan ballot despite dropping out of the race. The Michigan Court of Appeals, however, ruled on Friday that Kennedy&#8217;s name <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/rfk-jr-scores-major-wins-for-trump-in-2-battleground-states" target="_blank" rel="noopener">should be removed</a> from the Michigan ballot.
Judges in North Carolina also ruled in favor of Kennedy removing his name from the ballot. The independent candidate endorsed Trump last month and said he would seek to remove his name from ballots in battleground states where he could potentially act as a &#8220;spoiler.&#8221;
Whitmer discussed the unpredictable political direction of Michigan, saying, &#8220;I do think, you know, in Michigan over my lifetime, we take big swings. We&#8217;ve had 12 years of a Republican governor, and then we have term limits so eight years of a Democrat, then eight years of a Republican, then eight years of a Democrat. So it is a state that is notoriously kind of independent. We split our ticket a lot. And that&#8217;s who we are in Michigan.&#8221;
Trump won the state in 2016 over Hillary Clinton and lost to President Joe Biden in 2020. According to the latest <a href="https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/michigan/trump-vs-harris" target="_blank" rel="noopener">RealClearPolitics</a> polling average, Harris leads Trump in Michigan by just over 1 point.

Gretchen Whitmer

Whitmer ‘Nervous’ About Polls Showing Kamala With Solid Lead Over Trump In MI: ‘Just Not True’

Whitmer 'Nervous' About Polls Showing Kamala With Solid Lead Over Trump In MI: 'Just Not True'

Michigan

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