After a primary season marked by socialist wins — and a party that can&#8217;t seem to stop the dramatic lurch to the Left — Democrats are losing the public relations game with average voters, and they&#8217;re losing big.
CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten detailed the Democratic Party&#8217;s flagging favorability numbers during a Tuesday morning segment — and although he was also careful to note that President Donald Trump was not faring any better in recent polls, he made it clear that Democrats still had some serious work to do ahead of November&#8217;s midterm elections.
&#8220;Donald Trump&#8217;s political brand ain&#8217;t too hot to trot these days,&#8221; Enten explained, holding his nose for emphasis when he added, &#8220;But I gotta tell you, P-U when it comes to the Democratic brand.&#8221;
&#8220;The net favorability rating of the Democratic Party — you know, back in 2018, when Democrats during the first Trump presidency, right? When they were able to win back control of the House? They were even,&#8221; Enten said.
Enten&#8217;s tone was incredulous as he dropped the comparison to 2026: &#8220;Twenty-five points underwater! Oof. Oof. You know, the Dem brand, it&#8217;s not too good these days, it&#8217;s not too good. It kind of smells like a New York sidewalk in the summer.&#8221;
But what Enten did not address was the wide ideological chasm between the Democrats who ran — and ultimately flipped a number of seats — in the 2018 midterms and the Democrats who have secured primary wins in the 2026 cycle.
Among the 2018 winners were two who eventually switched their party affiliation either to Republicans or independent: New Jersey&#8217;s Rep. Jeff Van Drew — now a Republican — and Arizona&#8217;s former Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, who declared her affiliation to be independent in 2022. Others, like Reps. Max Rose (D-NY), Antonio Delgado (D-NY), Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D-FL), and Chrissy Houlahan (D-PA) were somewhat moderate in their voting records.
Just eight years later, the big primary wins have gone to a number of far-Left candidates who openly attack Israel and embrace socialism — and even a few who are card-carrying members of the Democratic Socialists of America.
Michigan&#8217;s Democratic Senate nominee <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/dsa-whistleblower-says-hell-do-everything-he-can-to-elect-mike-rogers">Abdul El-Sayed</a>, for example, proudly campaigned alongside antisemitic communist and Mao Zedong superfan <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/cnn-gives-el-sayed-a-chance-to-renounce-hasan-piker-he-does-the-opposite">Hasan Piker</a> — and he was not the only one to do so. DSA-aligned candidates won primaries in New York on the coattails of Democratic socialist New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani.
And as more moderate Democrats lose to primary challenges from the far-Left, a number of others have opted to <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/panic-sets-in-dems-tailspin-as-they-realize-the-hostile-socialist-takeover-already-started">fall in line</a> in an attempt to save their own skins, defending the rise of socialism by claiming that the Democrat tent is big enough for everyone.

Michigan Senate Candidate Abdul El-Sayed Holds Rally In Detroit With Sen. Bernie Sanders And Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Dems Are Losing The Public Relations War As Party Lurches Left

The Normies Don't Like Socialism, Dems Hardest Hit: Poll

Democratic Socialists Of America

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A pair of high-profile Democratic primaries in the Midwest were supposed to be runaway victories for far-left candidates, according to weeks of bloated survey numbers. Instead, election night delivered a pair of nail-biting finishes that exposed pollsters as completely out to lunch.
In Wisconsin, Democratic socialist state Rep. Francesca Hong was supposed to waltz into the governor’s nomination. Pundits spent months hyperventilating over her double-digit dominance. Poll after poll showed Hong lapping the field. A late PPP poll put her up by 18, while Marquette had her leading by an eye-popping 22 points in late July.
Yet when voters actually showed up, the supposed landslide vanished into thin air.
Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, who had actually suspended his struggling campaign earlier this summer due to low numbers and thin cash, staged an incredible resurrection. Re-entering the fray with the crucial backing of outgoing Gov.Tony Evers, Crowley pulled off a jaw-dropping comeback. With 95% of the vote tallied, Crowley squeaked out a victory with 39.81% over Hong’s 39.34%, while Kelda Roys lagged far behind at 7.5%. The Associated Press officially called the race for Crowley, capping off one of the biggest polling whiffs in recent Badger State history.
Across the lake in Michigan, pollsters didn&#8217;t fare any better.
In the Democratic senatorial primary, hard-Left favorite Abdul El-Sayed was projected to crush rival Rep.Haley Stevens. Emerson had El-Sayed cruising ahead by 15 points, Mitchell Research put him up by 14, and Data for Progress called it a 13-point lead.
When the final tallies rolled in, the &#8220;landslide&#8221; turned into a total mud fight. El-Sayed barely managed to cross the finish line, eking out a razor-thin 1% victory over Stevens (48.5% to 47.5%), with Mallory McMorrow taking 4.0%.
While both contests ended with outcomes vastly different from the promised hype, one trend is crystal clear: If you’re looking for accurate predictions, you’d probably have better luck asking a crystal ball than reading the latest poll.

Gubernatorial Candidate Francesca Hong Holds A Campaign Rally In Milwaukee

From Landslides To Nail-Biters: The Great Midwest Polling Meltdown

Michigan

Wisconsin

Texas has long been one of the Republican Party&#8217;s strongest states, particularly in the Trump era. But with just three months until Election Day, the GOP is confronting an uncomfortable reality: one of its safest Senate seats is suddenly looking competitive.
Three public polls released in the last week show Democratic state Rep. James Talarico narrowly leading Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, raising concerns that a bruising Republican primary and lingering questions about Paxton’s personal controversies may have left the GOP nominee vulnerable in November.
A <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-gop-divisions-shape-texas-senate-race">Fox News poll</a> released last week found Talarico leading Paxton 51% to 48% among registered voters. A <a href="https://texaspublicopinionresearch.substack.com/p/new-poll-james-talaricos-lead-over">Texas Public Opinion Research</a> (TPOR) survey of likely voters found Talarico ahead 45% to 40%, while the latest survey from the <a href="https://static1.squarespace.com/static/67aa7aa3e284b002cd6a420e/t/6a713767d4ed824b91ea090d/1785804647961/Texas+Statewide+August2026.pdf">Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center</a> showed Talarico leading 47% to 45%.
While all three results fall within or near the polls’ margins of error, the consistency of the findings has forced Republicans to confront a difficult reality: Paxton is not beginning the general election with the overwhelming advantage traditionally enjoyed by Republican nominees in Texas.
President Donald Trump carried Texas by nearly 14 percentage points in 2024, but Paxton has struggled to replicate the strength of the broader Republican coalition, particularly among independents and some factions of the GOP electorate. The central challenge for Paxton is not simply convincing undecided voters to choose him, it is repairing the fractures created during a bitter Republican primary against longtime Sen. John Cornyn.
Paxton defeated Cornyn after receiving Trump’s endorsement, but the contest exposed a deep divide inside the Texas Republican Party. Cornyn, a longtime Senate leader with strong support among establishment Republicans and major donors, was defeated despite millions of dollars in outside spending aimed at stopping Paxton.
That division has carried into the general election. Several prominent Republican donors who supported Cornyn have been slow to fully embrace Paxton’s campaign, creating concerns among Republicans that their nominee may lack the financial resources necessary to define Talarico before Democrats can define him first. Talarico, meanwhile, has built a <a href="https://abcnews.com/Politics/democrats-dominate-fundraising-key-senate-races-republicans-ample/story?id=134829415">significant fundraising operation</a>, raising tens of millions of dollars as he attempts to become the first Democrat in more than three decades to win statewide office in Texas.
The polling suggests that Paxton’s personal image remains one of his biggest liabilities. The Fox News survey found 59% of Texas voters are concerned Paxton lacks the character necessary to serve in the Senate, compared with 47% who believe Talarico is too extreme. Even among Republicans, 36% expressed concerns about Paxton’s character. The TPOR poll found Paxton with the worst favorability rating of any major figure tested, with 33% viewing him favorably and 46% unfavorably. Talarico, meanwhile, held a net positive rating, with 43% favorable and 31% unfavorable.
The Barbara Jordan survey showed a similar dynamic, with 39% of likely voters viewing Paxton favorably compared with 57% who viewed him negatively. Talarico was more evenly rated, with 46% favorable and 47% unfavorable.
Still, Paxton’s supporters argue his personal numbers are less important than the ideological contrast between the two candidates. The Fox News poll found roughly eight in 10 supporters of both candidates said their vote was primarily about where the candidates stand on issues rather than their personal qualities.
Republicans have already begun attacking Talarico over his past statements and positions on issues including transgender policy, immigration, religion, and healthcare. 
The challenge, however, is that Talarico enters the general election with some advantages of his own. The TPOR poll found voters trusted Talarico more than Paxton on the issue dominating many voters’ concerns: affordability. 44% of respondents said the cost of living was among their top priorities heading into 2026, and voters trusted Talarico over Paxton by nine points when asked who they trusted more to lower costs and improve Texans’ financial situations.
The Democratic candidate has also performed strongly among independents. The TPOR survey found Talarico leading Paxton among independent voters 43% to 23%, while the Barbara Jordan poll showed Talarico ahead among independents 63% to 23%. The Fox News poll also found signs of an enthusiasm advantage for Democrats, with Democratic voters more likely than Republicans to describe themselves as highly motivated and highly interested in the midterms.
The demographic breakdowns have similarly raised concerns for Republicans. Texas Republicans have historically relied on overwhelming margins among rural white voters to offset Democratic strength in urban areas and minority communities. But the latest surveys suggest Paxton’s advantage among white voters is significantly smaller than recent Republican nominees.
The Barbara Jordan poll found Paxton leading among white voters by 14 points, 53% to 39%. That compares with Trump’s 33-point advantage among white voters in Texas in the 2024 election. 
The same survey found Talarico leading among Hispanic voters by 19 points, 57% to 38%, while Fox News found Talarico ahead among Hispanic voters by 18 points. The shift among Hispanic voters is particularly significant because Texas Republicans had hopes that gains could be made with the demographic after Trump won Hispanic voters in Texas narrowly in 2024.
Despite the warning signs, Republicans remain confident the race can be stabilized. Republicans have controlled every statewide office for more than three decades, and the Fox News poll found the Republican Party holding a higher favorability rating than the Democratic Party statewide.
For Republicans, the path forward is clear but difficult: unite the party, rebuild donor support, and convince voters that Talarico represents a Democratic agenda they do not want in Washington.
For Democrats, the challenge is equally clear: overcome decades of Republican dominance and prove that Texas has become competitive enough for a statewide breakthrough.
Texas is still a Republican state. But for the first time in years, Republicans are entering a Senate race there facing a question that once seemed impossible: whether their hold on the Lone Star State is beginning to weaken.

James Talarico/Ken Paxton

Senate Race In Solid Red State Remains Too Close For GOP Comfort

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Kalshi on Wednesday launched its Midterm Elections Hub, the first-ever election dashboard fueled by &#8220;the wisdom of the crowd.&#8221;
The latest venture from the country&#8217;s largest prediction market features polling averages, fundraising data, historical results, and campaign news and analysis, as well as access to Kalshi&#8217;s election markets. The company says the hub will provide accurate, unbiased forecasts of midterm races based on where people are risking real money.
“Prediction markets don’t care about spin or partisanship. They cut through polarization and show you what the wisdom of the crowd actually believes, backed by real money, not rhetoric,” Kalshi co-founder and CEO Tarek Mansour said in a press release. “That kind of clarity is rare right now and that’s what people are getting with the Midterms Hub.”
Millions of Americans already use Kalshi to see what other citizens predict will happen in upcoming elections. According to the market, roughly 75% of visitors check odds while 25% are actively trading. Kalshi’s new site gives an unfiltered, view of how an election is currently taking place. The Midterms Hub will update by the second based on breaking news, speeches, polls, and more.
Kalshi being powered by the “wisdom of the crowds” allows their markets to be perfectly aligned to up-to-date predictions on candidates winning their respective race, which has been proven for years.
In every American election since 2024, candidates favored to win on Kalshi won roughly 90% of the time.
The Washington Post <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/06/23/why-prediction-markets-election-picks-are-useful-even-when-they-seem-wrong/">analyzed</a> hundreds of the 2026 primary races on the prediction market. It found that candidates priced “70-80%” odds on Kalshi won “75%” of the time, confirming Kalshi’s proclaimed “statistically calibrated” 2024 election markets.
The Midterms Hub also builds on Kalshi’s recent release of KPOW, the American Power Index. KPOW will combine information on who currently holds seats of power with what the prediction market expects to happen next. It will give a number on a scale from +50D, full Democratic control, to +50R, full Republican control.
Kalshi will mark the hub&#8217;s launch today in Washington, D.C., at an event featuring a live demonstration of the hub and a panel featuring Mansour, Republican pollster Kristin Soltis Anderson, and former White House Director of Digital Strategy Rob Flaherty.

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Kalshi Launches Midterms Hub Powered By ‘The Wisdom Of The Crowd’

Congress

Election

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A new poll finds that a plurality of Gen Z would hop in a time machine and leave their life behind as many young people grow disillusioned with modern technology and increasingly pessimistic about their economic futures.
If given the option, nearly half (47%) of 18-29-year-olds said they&#8217;d choose to live in the past, according to an <a href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/28059030-genz-nbc-news-decision-desk-poll-march-2026-topline/">NBC News Decision Desk Poll</a>. One in three surveyed said they’d pick a time period less than 50 years ago, while another 14% would choose more than 50 years in the past. Only 38% of young people said they’d prefer to live in the present.
Members of this generation, born in 1997 or later, yearn for an era “right before social media and computers mediated life,” Clay Routledge, a nostalgia researcher and existential psychologist, said in an <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/discomfort-modern-technology-gen-z-desire-live-past-poll-rcna340897">interview with NBC News</a>.
Ben Isaacs, a 20-year-old Colorado student, said he’d choose to live in the 1990s, arguing smartphones are eroding young people’s ability to connect face-to-face and live beyond “the realm of the phone,” according to NBC.
The survey captures Gen Z’s deepening dissatisfaction with the country’s trajectory, social cohesion, and their financial futures.
A whopping 80% of Gen Z—more than any other generation—said the United States is headed in the wrong direction, according to the NBC poll, and 62% expect their lives will be worse than those of previous generations.
Plus, a majority rated the economy—especially inflation and the cost of living—as their top political concerns.
Artificial intelligence, which is transforming the higher education landscape and entry-level job market, is adding to the uncertainty and economic anxiety. <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/704087/college-students-weigh-impact-majors-careers.aspx">One in six college students</a> has changed their major because of AI, and 48% of Gen Z workers now say its negatives outweigh its benefits—an 11-point increase from 2025, according to a recent Gallup poll.
Unemployment among recent college graduates has risen since the pandemic, reaching 5.6% at the end of 2025 and extending well beyond the humanities, according to the <a href="https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/college-labor-market#--:explore:unemployment">Federal Reserve Bank of New York.</a> Computer engineering now has one of the <a href="https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/college-labor-market#--:explore:unemployment">highest unemployment rates</a> among college majors at 7.8%, a sharp reversal from 2021, when it ranked among the lowest at 3.2%.
Economic, cultural, and political turbulence is helping drive a cultural shift among some young people, especially men. Another Gallup poll released this month indicates that young men have become more religious in recent years.
<a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/708410/young-men-religious-young-women.aspx">The survey</a>, released April 16, finds that 42% of men ages 18–29 now say religion is “very important” in their lives, up sharply from 28% in 2022–2023. Monthly religious attendance among young men also rose to 40% from 33%, the highest level in more than a decade, surpassing women for the first time.
&#8220;When there’s a lot of disruptions — political divisiveness, or, you know, worries about AI or other kinds of societal, technological or social, cultural changes — people tend to become more nostalgic for the past to help them with the things that they’re worried about,” <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/discomfort-modern-technology-gen-z-desire-live-past-poll-rcna340897">Routledge told NBC</a>.

Teens in circle holding smart mobile phones – Multicultural young people using cellphones outside – Teenagers addicted to new technology concept

Why Gen Z Wishes They Could Time Travel

Economy

Gen Z

Social Media

A sharp uptick in religiosity among young American men is reversing decades of cultural trends, with new polling showing the largest year-over-year increase in religious engagement for any age group in more than two decades, an outcome many on the Right have been working toward for years.
According to a <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/708410/young-men-religious-young-women.aspx">new survey from Gallup</a>, 42% of men aged 18 to 29 now say religion is “very important” in their lives, up from just 28% two years prior. The 14-point jump marks the steepest increase measured across any demographic group in the poll’s recent history and returns young men to levels of religiosity not seen since the early 2000s.
The surge has also upended a longstanding gender dynamic. For decades, young women consistently reported higher levels of religious commitment than their male peers; that gap has now reversed, with young men surpassing young women in the importance they place on religion, holding a slight edge in religious affiliation, and matching them in attendance at religious services.
Gallup’s data show the increase is not merely attitudinal, as religious service attendance among young men rose seven points over the same period, reaching 40%, their highest level in more than a decade, bringing them into parity with young women and closer to older male cohorts than at any point in recent years.
The poll finds that the rise in religiosity is concentrated heavily among Republicans, with young Republican men driving much of the increase. That political alignment hints that the trend is not simply an ideological shift, but part of a broader cultural realignment among younger Americans.
For years, conservative leaders, media figures, and grassroots organizations have placed renewed emphasis on religion, tradition, and moral structure, particularly in response to what they describe as a vacuum of meaning created by secular institutions. That messaging has been especially targeted toward young men, a demographic often described as politically disengaged and culturally adrift in the social media era.
The late Charlie Kirk was among the key forces in the movement, consistently urging young men to reject modern nihilism in favor of the &#8220;ancient and the beautiful.&#8221; Shortly before his death, he <a href="https://www.christianitydaily.com/news/charlie-kirk-beautiful-to-see-young-men-reengaging-with-church.html">delivered a call</a> that resonated with the very men now appearing in Gallup&#8217;s data: &#8220;Find yourself back to church &#8230; that will reorient your life. Do what the church tells you to do: Find a woman, marry her, provide &#8230; have more kids than you can afford.&#8221;
The data now suggest that his effort bore fruit. While the broader trajectory of American religiosity remains in decline — with overall levels of belief, affiliation, and attendance near historic lows — young men have emerged as a clear exception. Their return to levels of religious importance last seen in 2000-2001 stands in stark contrast to women of all age groups, as well as older men, who remain at or near their lowest points in Gallup’s long-term tracking.
At the same time, young women have moved in the opposite direction. At just 29%, they are now the least religious demographic measured, widening a gap that now extends beyond religion into politics and culture more broadly. The result is a striking divergence: one cohort moving back toward faith, structure, and institutional religion, while another continues to drift away.
Gallup’s own analysis suggests the answer may lie in politics as much as in theology. The sustained increase in attendance among young Republican men since the late 2010s, as well as the more recent acceleration, indicates that religious engagement is increasingly intertwined with political identity. That dynamic has amplified the impact of the shift. With nearly half of young men now identifying as or leaning Republican, gains within that group are large enough to reshape the overall trend line. It marks a major victory for the conservative movement’s central argument — that cultural renewal requires a return to faith and tradition.
The data offer early signs that such a shift may already be underway among a key demographic.
Whether that trend continues or expands beyond its current base remains to be seen. For now, however, the numbers point to a clear break from the recent past: after decades of steady decline, young men are moving back toward religion in measurable and historically significant ways.

intersection of religion & politics: rear view of rows of wooden pews with religious liturgy books stored in pew racks in church

Young Men Just Surged In One Key Area And It’s Flipping A Decades-Old Gender Gap

Christianity

Gender

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Candidates will likely take aim at health insurance companies on the campaign trail this election cycle, according to new polling.
Eighty-one percent of likely voters said they “would be more likely to vote for a candidate who wants to cut out waste, fraud, and abuse in government health care and health insurance programs,” according to a new survey conducted by the Insurance Watchdog Coalition and OnMessage Public Strategies.
“The cost of health insurance is near the top of the list of affordability issues now, for a big chunk of American voters,” OnMessage pollster Wes Anderson told The Daily Wire.
“I’m sure the insurance companies want themselves not to be in the spotlight, but I think gravity is gonna take us that way, because for too many middle-class families, their health insurance costs are starting to rival their mortgage payments,&#8221; Anderson added.
The poll also found that Americans have a 78% unfavorable opinion of health insurance companies, with only 17% viewing them favorably. Respondents said Congress should prioritize health insurance companies, while pharmaceutical companies were also cited as an industry deserving greater scrutiny.
Support for more aggressive action against insurers was also high. Ninety percent of those polled said they believe health insurance companies should be broken up, and 70% said they would be “more likely” to back a political candidate who supports such a move.
Similarly, 84% of respondents said they would back a candidate who “takes on insurance companies to lower costs,” while 86% said they would be “less likely to vote for a candidate funded by big insurance companies.”
The findings come as healthcare costs remain a major issue in Washington. The Trump administration in February launched what it calls &#8220;TrumpRx,&#8221; an initiative to “find the world’s lowest prices on prescription drugs.”
Broader healthcare policy debates are continuing following the expiration of some Affordable Care Act subsidies at the end of last year. The administration has also proposed drastic changes to the current system through what it has branded “The Great Healthcare Plan.”
&#8220;The Great Healthcare Plan stops sending big insurance companies billions in extra taxpayer-funded subsidy payments and instead send that money directly to eligible Americans to allow them to buy the health insurance of their choice,&#8221; according to the White House, adding that the plan would also include &#8220;a cost-sharing reduction program for healthcare plans.&#8221;
The path forward on health insurance policy will likely fall on Congress, as both parties are in a heated battle for control of the legislative branch for the second half of Trump&#8217;s term. Republicans currently hold narrow majorities in both chambers, and issues like healthcare could be deciding factors for voters in November.
The survey was conducted from April 8-11 among 1,000 likely voters across the United States and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

Close-up of gloved hands passing the surgical scissors, operating room, hospital

Midterm Candidates Have A Major Political Target That Impacts Your Wallet

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insurance

Tucker Carlson&#8217;s popularity has collapsed and is in &#8220;absolute free fall&#8221; among Republican voters as President Trump blasts the former Fox News host as &#8220;<a href="https://nypost.com/2026/04/07/us-news/trump-tears-into-tucker-carlson-over-iran-war-claims/">a low IQ person that has absolutely no idea what’s going on.</a>&#8221;
The commentator&#8217;s favorability rating among Republican-leaning voters has dropped by a stunning 47 percentage points over the last two years, according to a <a href="https://www.uml.edu/docs/2026-Nat-Pol-March-Topline_tcm18-417813.pdf">poll</a> from YouGov and UMass Lowell. The poll was conducted at the end of March, before Trump&#8217;s full onslaught, but well into the war in Iran.
In March 2024, Carlson held a +54 favorability rating with conservative voters. Two years later, that figure has cratered to just +7, the poll shows.
The numbers reflect a trend that began with former Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene, who resigned from Congress after a bitter split with the president. Trump-backed Republican Clay Fuller <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/voters-pick-replacement-for-former-trump-ally-marjorie-taylor-greene?author=Jacob+Wheeler&amp;category=News&amp;elementPosition=7&amp;row=0&amp;rowType=Vertical+List&amp;title=Voters+Pick+Replacement+For+Former+Trump+Ally+Marjorie+Taylor+Greene">won the special election</a> Tuesday night to fill the seat.
CNN&#8217;s polling expert described Carlson as &#8220;electoral poison,&#8221; pointing to data showing that California Gov. Gavin Newsom would beat him by 11 percentage points in a general election. Vice President JD Vance, on the other hand, would win by 3 points over Newsom.
&#8220;When you go up against Donald Trump and you want to appeal to the Republican base, to quote the movie &#8216;Good Burger,&#8217; you&#8217;re going in the grinder, and that&#8217;s exactly what has happened to Tucker Carlson, who has absolutely collapsed among Republicans,&#8221; Enten said.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-media-max-width="560">
Tucker Carlson has been in absolute free fall among the GOP. His net favorable has dropped by 47 points.
Meanwhile, Trump crushes Tucker among the GOP. Trump&#8217;s net favorable is 54 pts higher than Carlson&#8217;s.
When you up against Trump, you in the grinder to quote Good Burger. <a href="https://t.co/oz30tsWGhW">pic.twitter.com/oz30tsWGhW</a>
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) <a href="https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/2042628510729277697?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 10, 2026</a></blockquote>
Kalshi prediction markets only give Carlson a five percent chance of securing the 2028 GOP nomination, with Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio running well ahead.
Republican voters &#8220;choose Donald Trump basically every single time,&#8221; Enten added, a point raised by conservative commentator Meghan McCain.
&#8220;I don&#8217;t know how every single podcaster and influencer hasn&#8217;t realized by this time that republicans will choose Trump over them &#8211; absolutely every single time,&#8221; McCain said.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
I don&#8217;t know how every single podcaster and influencer hasn&#8217;t realized by this time that republicans will choose Trump over them &#8211; absolutely every single time. <a href="https://t.co/Wi4z78YhQ5">https://t.co/Wi4z78YhQ5</a>
— Meghan McCain (@MeghanMcCain) <a href="https://twitter.com/MeghanMcCain/status/2042639626427375790?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 10, 2026</a></blockquote>
The fresh data comes after President Trump went scorched earth Thursday night on Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly, Candace Owens, and Alex Jones, calling the four podcasters &#8220;low IQ,&#8221; &#8220;losers,&#8221; and &#8220;nut jobs.&#8221;
&#8220;They’ve all been thrown off Television, lost their Shows, and aren’t even invited on TV because nobody cares about them, they’re NUT JOBS, TROUBLEMAKERS, and will say anything necessary for some &#8216;free&#8217; and cheap publicity,&#8221; Trump said in a <a href="https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116376634773749603">Truth Social post</a>.
In response, the Tucker Carlson Network started selling &#8220;low IQ&#8221; hats, &#8220;calling all nut jobs, troublemakers, and third rate podcasters&#8221; to buy their merchandise.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
Calling all nut jobs, troublemakers, and third rate podcasters! New merch just dropped: <a href="https://t.co/PICYxuIV5A">https://t.co/PICYxuIV5A</a><a href="https://twitter.com/TuckerCarlson?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@TuckerCarlson</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/megynkelly?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@megynkelly</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/RealCandaceO?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@RealCandaceO</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/RealAlexJones?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@RealAlexJones</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/mtgreenee?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@mtgreenee</a> <a href="https://t.co/O8s6DRpC29">https://t.co/O8s6DRpC29</a> <a href="https://t.co/XOKveI5h41">pic.twitter.com/XOKveI5h41</a>
— Tucker Carlson Network (@TCNetwork) <a href="https://twitter.com/TCNetwork/status/2042614462645956621?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 10, 2026</a></blockquote>
All four commentators have become <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/trump-goes-nuclear-on-tucker-megyn-and-candace?author=Zach+Jewell&amp;category=News&amp;elementPosition=undefined&amp;row=0&amp;rowType=Vertical+List&amp;title=Trump+Goes+Nuclear+On+Tucker%2C+Megyn%2C+And+Candace">increasingly critical</a> of the president over his decision to launch “Operation Epic Fury” against the Islamic Republic of Iran. Earlier this week, Carlson urged U.S. military members to refuse Trump’s orders and fumed at the president&#8217;s Easter Sunday message.
“Who do you think you are? You’re tweeting out the f-word on Easter morning?” Carlson said. “No president should mock Islam.”
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Tucker Carlson slams US President Trump for mocking Islam.
&#8220;No President should mock Islam.&#8221; <a href="https://t.co/ZnOtsLrDB6">pic.twitter.com/ZnOtsLrDB6</a>
— BRICS News (@BRICSinfo) <a href="https://twitter.com/BRICSinfo/status/2041312617717813468?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 7, 2026</a></blockquote>

Donald Trump/Tucker Carlson

Tucker Carlson Popularity Is In ‘Absolute Free Fall’

Marjorie Taylor Greene

Tucker Carlson

Virginia Democratic Gov. Abigail Spanberger entered office with a decisive mandate and a carefully crafted centrist brand. Now, just months later, new polling suggests both are under strain.
<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/04/06/virginia-spanberger-approval-poll-affordability/">A survey</a> conducted by The Washington Post and George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government shows Spanberger at 47% approval and 46% disapproval, the weakest early-term standing for a Virginia governor in decades. The erosion is particularly sharp among independents, a key bloc that powered her November landslide. Just 45% now approve of her performance, while 46% disapprove, a stark shift from the 59% of independents she carried on Election Day, according to <a href="https://www.cnn.com/election/2025/exit-polls/virginia/general/governor/0">exit polls</a>.
Governors in the Commonwealth have typically enjoyed relatively stable approval ratings early in their terms, if not downright charitable. Glenn Youngkin, for example, maintained a solid 54% approval rating with just 39% disapproval at a comparable point in his tenure, despite only winning Virginia by two points in the 2021 election.
45% of voters say Spanberger’s views are “too liberal,” compared to 42% who say they are “just about right,” and just 7% who view her as “too conservative.” Nowhere is the shift clearer than on the issue that defined her campaign: affordability.
Spanberger repeatedly promised to lower costs, pledging an “Affordable Virginia” agenda aimed at easing pressure on health care, housing, and energy. But voters are increasingly skeptical. The poll finds 41% believe her policies will make Virginia less affordable, compared to 31% who say more affordable, while 23% expect no impact.
That skepticism extends across party lines. While 63% of Democrats believe her policies will improve affordability, a significant share, more than three in ten, say they will either make no difference or worsen costs. Among independents, the numbers tilt negative, with 41% saying her policies will make the state less affordable versus just 27% who expect improvement. Roughly eight in ten Republicans say her agenda will drive costs higher.
As <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/after-running-on-affordability-virginia-dems-push-for-nations-highest-income-tax?author=Drew+Berkemeyer&amp;category=News&amp;elementPosition=undefined&amp;row=0&amp;rowType=Vertical+List&amp;title=After+Running+On+Affordability%2C+Virginia+Dems+Push+For+Nation%E2%80%99s+Highest+Income+Tax">previously reported</a>, Democrats in Richmond have introduced sweeping tax proposals that would create new income brackets and expand taxes on investment income, potentially pushing Virginia’s top effective rate to roughly 13.8%, higher than California’s. Supporters frame the measures as a “fair share” approach to fund public priorities, but critics argue they directly undercut Spanberger’s affordability message. The tension between centrist campaign rhetoric and left-wing governing reality is becoming a defining feature of her early tenure.
Beyond taxes, Spanberger is facing mounting scrutiny over a broader policy slate. <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/blue-state-dems-plow-ahead-with-dozens-of-gun-control-bills?author=Drew+Berkemeyer&amp;category=News&amp;elementPosition=undefined&amp;row=0&amp;rowType=Vertical+List&amp;title=Blue+State+Dems+Plow+Ahead+With+Dozens+Of+Gun+Control+Bills">More than 30 gun control measures</a> are advancing through the legislature, including proposed bans and new restrictions on firearms and magazines. Her decision to end cooperation between state law enforcement and federal immigration authorities has also drawn criticism, as has her support for rejoining a regional climate initiative opponents say could increase energy costs.
Taken together, the policy direction has fueled a perception that her administration is governing to the left of where she campaigned, a dynamic reflected in the polling.
Political observers say the speed of the shift is notable. Larry Sabato has <a href="https://wjla.com/news/local/virginia-gov-abigail-spanbergers-approval-rating-drop-gmu-washington-post-poll-immigration-affordability-taxes-voters-redistricting">warned</a> the decline is “stunning” and could become a serious liability if it continues. Mark Rozell, dean of the Schar School of Policy and Government, similarly noted that while polarization is expected, the degree of early division is “unusual” for a governor who emphasized a centrist image.
But the more compelling explanation may not be polarization at all. Spanberger didn’t win as a culture-war left-winger or a doctrinaire liberal, she won as a center-leaning pragmatist who promised cost relief and moderation. What the early polling suggests is not simply that voters are sorting into partisan camps, but that a decisive bloc, particularly independents, believes the product they were sold is not the one being delivered.
The risk for Spanberger is that this isn’t a messaging problem, it’s a definitional one. Once voters conclude a candidate has misrepresented their governing approach, it becomes extraordinarily difficult to rebuild credibility, especially when the policy record continues to reinforce that perception.
In that sense, the centrist brand that carried her to office may not be fraying, it may already be gone.

Abigail Spanberger Is Sworn In As First Female Virginia Governor

Spanberger May Have Won In A Landslide, But She Just Got Hit With A Reality Check

abigail spanberger

Virginia

CNN data analyst Harry Enten is pushing back on claims of a growing fracture within the Republican base, arguing that new polling shows continued and near-total loyalty to President Donald Trump among self-identified MAGA voters, even as a high-profile rift plays out on the right over Iran.
Speaking on CNN, Enten pointed to what he described as a number that “jumps off the screen”: Trump’s approval rating among MAGA Republicans sits at 100%, with zero percent disapproving. “You don’t have to be a mathematical genius to know you can’t go higher than 100%,” Enten said, comparing Trump’s standing within the movement to the undefeated 1972 Miami Dolphins.
Enten also dismissed the idea that the figure is being inflated by an exodus of disaffected voters. According to the polling he cited, “The MAGA base within the GOP is not shrinking. If anything, it is slightly larger,” rising from 28% to 30%.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
There&#8217;s no break in MAGA. Trump&#8217;s approval with MAGA GOP is literally 100%.
90% of MAGA GOP approve of US military action in Iran.
Those who disapprove of Trump are not MAGA at this point.
Importantly: MAGA makes up the same share of voters as it did when Trump won in 2024. <a href="https://t.co/LqMRHm8t1B">pic.twitter.com/LqMRHm8t1B</a>
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) <a href="https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/2034294893929968050?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 18, 2026</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
But that analysis is colliding with an increasingly visible backlash from prominent voices on the right, who argue that Trump’s posture toward Iran cuts against core promises that defined the MAGA movement. Tucker Carlson blasted the policy in stark terms, <a href="https://abcnews.com/US/trumps-iran-decision-sparks-backlash-tucker-carlson-maga/story?id=130622270">calling it</a> “absolutely disgusting and evil,” adding: “This is Israel’s war. This is not the United States’s war. This war’s not being waged on behalf of American national security objectives.”
Carlson further warned the conflict “will be catastrophic” and could “end Trump’s presidency” or “shuffle the deck in a profound way.” Donald Trump responded directly, <a href="https://x.com/jonkarl/status/2029650210125652143">saying</a> Carlson “has lost his way” and declaring “he’s not MAGA.”
In the same camp, former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene argued the move represents a fundamental break from the movement’s original platform.“We said on every single rally stage, no more foreign wars, no more regime change … this is a complete betrayal of those campaign promises,” Greene <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/16/politics/video/cnn-sitroom-pamela-brown-mtg-marjorie-taylor-greene-trump-president-war-iran-campaign">said</a>. “This is absolutely absurd. And it’s 100% a betrayal to what MAGA was supposed to be when we voted in 2024, and it’s turned into some perverted, deranged version of MAGA now that nobody wants.” 
Despite that rhetoric, Enten argued the available data does not show a measurable break within Trump’s base. Citing Republican views on potential U.S. military action in Iran, Enten said 90% of MAGA Republicans approve, compared to 54% of non-MAGA Republicans. Among MAGA voters, just 5% expressed disapproval.
“Those who disapprove… they ain’t MAGA,” Enten said.
The disconnect highlights a broader question emerging from the debate: whether the current divide represents a genuine fracture within the Republican electorate, or a loud but limited conflict among high-profile figures and online activists.
Critics of Enten’s analysis could argue that topline polling may not fully capture shifts in enthusiasm or intensity, particularly on an issue like foreign policy that has historically divided Republican factions. Supporters, meanwhile, can point to the numbers as evidence that Trump’s hold on the movement remains intact. For now, the data and the discourse appear to be telling two different stories, one of consolidation, and one of conflict, with the true state of the MAGA coalition to be tested in the midterms this November.

CNN Pollster Admits It: Reports Of MAGA’s Death Have Been Grossly Exaggerated

As the 2026 midterm elections approach, Democrats are fighting to claim the majority in one or both chambers of Congress. But, according to a recent poll, the Democratic Party is polling below almost every key figure and organization — with the exception of the brutal Iranian regime.
<a href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/27777984-nbc-news-march-2026-poll-03-08-2024-release-final/">An NBC News poll</a>, published by the legacy news outlet on March 8, asked a number of standard questions regarding the economy, military action in Iran, and the overall performance thus far of President Donald Trump — but it also ranked a number of key figures and organizations based on their net favorability.
The Democratic Party, with a net favorability rating of -22, ranked near the bottom of the list — in fact, only the Iranian regime ranked below the Democrats, albeit with a much lower net favorability of -53. Pope Leo the 14th ranked highest overall with a net favorability of 34.
President Donald Trump (-12) and the Republican Party (-14) were near the middle of the list — and as far as 2028 presidential contenders, Republicans fared far better than Democrats did there as well. Two of the most likely Democratic primary candidates — former Vice President Kamala Harris at -17 and Governor <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/feminist-hero-katie-couric-asks-gavin-newsom-if-hes-too-hot-to-be-president-in-hard-hitting-interview">Gavin Newsom</a> (D-CA) at -18 — ranked decidedly lower than current Vice President JD Vance (-11) and Secretary of State Marco Rubio (-7). Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), who is rumored to be considering either a presidential bid or a move to unseat Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, was the only Democrat to break into the top half of the list, tying with Vance at -11.
The poll surveyed 1000 registered voters, just over half of whom were female. They were evenly divided along political lines, with 42% saying they leaned Republican, 42% saying they leaned Democrat, and the rest identifying themselves as either independent or other.
As to the other questions, just under half (44%) said they approved of President Trump&#8217;s performance thus far, and 54% disapproved. On border security specifically, the president fared much better, with just over half (53%) approving of his actions and a little less than half (44%) disapproving. On foreign policy, 43% approved and 54% disapproved — a slight shift from one year prior, when 45% approved and 53% disapproved. On the war in Iran, more than one-third (41%) approved of the president&#8217;s actions, and just over half (54%) disapproved.
A number of <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/odds-have-gone-plummeting-down-cnn-data-guru-says-democrat-hopes-of-flipping-house-are-fading">polls</a> in recent months have <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/voters-abandon-democrats-support-hits-lowest-level-in-more-than-three-decades-poll">spelled trouble</a> for the Democrats, with one from The Wall Street Journal (in July of 2025) noting that Democrats had sunk to their lowest approval rating in decades, with well over half (63%) holding a negative view of the party.

Kamala Harris

Democrats Only Outrank Despotic Iranian Regime In Recent NBC Poll

Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE)

Iran

JD Vance

Marco Rubio

Republicans

While critics of President Donald Trump&#8217;s foreign policy push the narrative that his Iran strikes are dividing MAGA, a closer look at the data suggests that any cracks are at the surface rather than deep in the president&#8217;s Republican base.
The RealClearPolitics <a href="https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/issues/military-action-iran">Average</a> showed that overall support for Operation Epic Fury, the joint military campaign undertaken by the United States and Israel over the weekend, had the president underwater a bit with 39% approving of the action and 52% disapproving.
A breakdown of some of the individual polls showed that Republicans were united on the issue, with no one poll showing more than 18% opposing military action in Iran. The vast majority of the disapproval came from Democrats — who were also fairly united — and, to a lesser extent, independents.
A <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-trump-administration-iran-war-goals/">CBS/YouGov</a> poll taken between March 2 and March 3, for example, showed that just 10% of Democrats approved of military action in Iran and 90% disapproved. Among independents, 63% opposed the action and 37% were in favor. A majority of Republicans (85%) supported military action and just 15% did not.
A similar result came from a <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16eShJoxX7NNcoSPkAsymnz8loVbgDrC9HztvcTpS22Y/edit?gid=0#gid=0">Washington Post poll</a> taken on March 1, which showed Democrat opposition at 87% and support at 9%. On the Republican side, 81% approved and 12% did not — and independents once again fell in the middle, with 59% against military action and 28% in favor of it.
A <a href="https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2026-03/Reuters%20Ipsos%20Iran%20Airstrike%20Topline%203.1.2026.pdf">Reuters/Ipsos</a> survey followed the same pattern, with 5% of Democrats supporting military action in Iran and 95% against it. Republicans came out largely in favor of military action, showing 82% approving and 18% disapproving. Among independents, 67% disapproved and 29% supported the action.
The apparent outlier included in the average was a poll from <a href="https://insideradvantage.com/iran-flash-survey-top-line-tabs/">InsiderAdvantage</a> taken on February 28, but it still showed similar numbers from Republicans: 79.3% in favor and 12% opposed. The numbers for Democrats shifted slightly, with 62.5% disapproving and 32.1% approving. Independents also showed much higher numbers in favor of military action, with 45.3% supporting and 40.3% opposing.
Sentiments had been moving in Trump&#8217;s favor, if only slightly, just prior to the first strikes, however. A <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-news-poll-americans-views-on-iran-prior-to-conflict/">CBS/YouGov</a> poll taken on February 24 showed 47% in favor of Trump taking military action to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, and 53% opposed. Just three days later, 51% were in favor and 49% opposed.
A <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-views-divided-us-action-against-iran">Fox News poll</a> conducted between February 28 and March 2 showed overall approval and disapproval deadlocked at 50% on either side — but also showed that a majority (61%) view Iran as a national security threat.
Among Republicans, as in the other polls, the sentiment lies primarily (84%) on the side of taking military action against Iran. Among independents, support for military action was just under half, at 40% — and only 20% of Democrats were in favor.
The Fox News poll went a bit deeper as well, noting that among those who had served in the military, a majority (59%) favored the campaign against the Iranian regime and 39% opposed it.

President Trump Delivers The State Of The Union Address

MAGA Unity: Polls Show Republicans Opposed To Trump’s Iran Strikes Are Loud, Small Minority

MAGA Unity: Republicans Opposed To Trump Iran Strikes Are Loud, Small Minority

Military

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