Heading into the final hours before the first-in-the-nation Iowa caucuses begin on Monday, polls show former President Donald Trump maintaining a commanding lead over his GOP rivals in the Hawkeye State.
A final Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll, the results of which were released on Saturday night, matched the general trend seen in recent surveys: Trump dominating the field with 48% support, former South Carolina Governor and United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley hanging far back in second place at 20%, and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis close behind Haley at 16%. Other surveys released in the last few days indicate a dead heat between Haley and DeSantis.
Tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy took fourth place in the Des Moines Register poll with 8% support — up 3 points from December. He was followed by former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson and Texas pastor Ryan Binkley, each of whom got 1% support.
The RealClearPolitics average of polls for Iowa showed everyone behind the top three stuck in single digits, including former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, who last week became the latest candidate to drop out of the race.
Trump is running a third presidential campaign, seeking a second term in the White House, as he faces off against a bevy of criminal cases and ballot access challenges. If he wins the GOP nomination, Trump could get a 2020 rematch against President Joe Biden.
Since the spring, the RealClearPolitics average of Iowa GOP polls has shown Trump between 40% and nearly 54%. As of Sunday afternoon, Trump was riding high at 52% while Haley took the No. 2 spot at 18.2% and DeSantis came in third with 15.6%.
DeSantis formally entered the race in May, with early polling showing him with a lock on second place with numbers in the mid to upper 20 percentile in Iowa. But after months of the Florida governor’s average being mostly stuck in the mid to upper teens, Haley’s poll numbers crept up, and some polls have showed her with an edge on DeSantis over the past couple of weeks.
The four surveys that preceded the Des Moines Register Iowa Poll and released in the week ahead of the caucus found Trump with a solid lead, while three out of four of them found Haley and DeSantis tied. A survey by Trafalgar showed Trump at roughly 52%, Haley at 18%, and DeSantis at 18%. An Iowa State poll found Trump at 55%, Haley at 14%, and DeSantis at 14%. A survey by Suffolk showed Trump at 54%, Haley at 20%, and DeSantis at 13%. And InsiderAdvantage poll showed Trump at 51%, Haley at 17%, and DeSantis at 17%. Ramaswamy stayed in single digits throughout.
Though polls may not necessarily predict the actual winner — especially with the uncertainty brought by a winter storm hitting Iowa and extreme cold weather far below the freezing mark — some other data from the final poll bode ill for anyone hoping to snag victory from Trump. The Des Moines Register reported that about 68% of voters have made up their minds, while only 25% said they could still be persuaded.
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Beyond the Iowa caucuses is New Hampshire’s primary on January 23, where Haley has focused a great deal of time and resources. The RealClearPolitics average of polls show Trump again with the lead in the Granite State, at 43.5%, but with Haley in an even stronger second-place position at 29.3%. Christie had been in third place with about 11.3%, while DeSantis sat in fourth with 6.5%.
It remains to be seen just how much the standings will shift in future New Hampshire polls that factor in Christie suspending his campaign. Next on the election calendar is the late February primary in South Carolina, Haley’s home turf, where DeSantis has signaled that he plans to head right after the Iowa caucuses.
Trump’s poll numbers on the national level are even higher than what he’s received lately in Iowa and New Hampshire. The RealClearPolitics average on Sunday put him at 60.9%. Haley was positioned in second place at 11.9%, DeSantis in third at 11%, and Ramaswamy in fourth at 4.3%.
A new ABC/Ipsos poll found 68% of Republican-leaning adults say Trump has the best chance of winning in November, while 12% and 11% said the same of Haley and DeSantis, respectively.