An egregiously wrong Des Moines Register poll by formerly well-respected pollster J. Ann Selzer published three days before the presidential election has catalyzed President-elect Donald Trump to say enough is enough — and sue them.
On November 2, the Register published Selzer’s poll, which came as a shock, as it showed Vice-President Kamala Harris with a three-point lead over Trump in a state Trump wound up winning by over 13 points. Within days after the election, Selzer abruptly retired.
There were suspicions about the apparent leaking of the poll prior to its release. “Roughly 45 minutes prior to the poll’s public release, a stray <a href="https://x.com/IllinoisLib/status/1852837036597948760" target="_blank" rel="noopener">tweet</a> predicted the poll’s findings,” Semafor <a href="https://www.semafor.com/article/11/10/2024/gannett-probes-possible-leak-of-bombshell-iowa-poll" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported</a>. “Its author <a href="https://x.com/PritzkerForPrez/status/1852879977487724566" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a> that Illinois Governor JB Pritzker, a Duke University alumnus, had mentioned the not-yet-released poll during a Duke Democrats meeting that day.”
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
Selzer is about to drop Kamala +3 
Source: Major campaign surrogate 
Not joking. Mark my words.
— Ryan 🥥🌴 (@IllinoisLib) <a href="https://twitter.com/IllinoisLib/status/1852837036597948760?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 2, 2024</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
our goat makes sure we eat 🍽️ <a href="https://t.co/uBH16bLlbq">pic.twitter.com/uBH16bLlbq</a>
— Socialists For Pritzker (@PritzkerForPrez) <a href="https://twitter.com/PritzkerForPrez/status/1852879977487724566?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 3, 2024</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
The lawsuit, filed Monday night and also naming Gannett, the Register’s parent company, states it seeks &#8220;accountability for brazen election interference committed by&#8221; the Des Moines Register (DMR) and Selzer &#8220;in favor of now-defeated former Democrat candidate Kamala Harris through use of a leaked and manipulated Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/politics/shock-poll-harris-leading-trump-iowa-3-point-shift-toward-vice-president-red-state" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Poll conducted</a> by Selzer and S&amp;C and published by DMR and Gannett in the Des Moines Register on Nov. 2, 2024,” Fox News <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-sues-des-moines-register-top-pollster-brazen-election-interference-fraud-over-harris-poll" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported</a>.
The lawsuit also states, “Contrary to reality and defying credulity, defendants’ Harris Poll was published three days before Election Day and purported to show Harris leading President Trump in Iowa by three points; President Trump ultimately won Iowa by over thirteen points.” It continues that the three-point Harris lead in &#8220;deep-red Iowa was not reality, it was election-interfering fiction.&#8221;
Selzer had &#8220;prided herself on a mainstream reputation for accuracy despite several far less publicized egregious polling misses in favor of Democrats,&#8221; the lawsuit continued, and that Selzer &#8220;would have the public believe it was merely a coincidence that one of the worst polling misses of her career came just days before the most consequential election in memory, was leaked and happened to go against the Republican candidate.&#8221;
<a href="https://get.dailywire.com/gift-guide/" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://get.dailywire.com/gift-guide/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1734465856887000&amp;usg=AOvVaw0yoXh27k1XJufgc_qcfvEq">CHECK OUT THE DAILY WIRE HOLIDAY GIFT GUIDE</a>
More from the lawsuit:
<blockquote>
The Harris Poll was no ‘miss’ but rather an attempt to influence the outcome of the 2024 Presidential Election &#8230; defendants and their cohorts in the Democrat Party hoped that the Harris Poll would create a false narrative of inevitability for Harris in the final week of the 2024 Presidential Election. &#8230; Instead, the November 5 election was a monumental victory for President Trump in both the Electoral College and the Popular Vote, an overwhelming mandate for his America First principles, and the consignment of the radical socialist agenda to the dustbin of history. 
</blockquote>
&#8220;Left-wing pollsters have attempted to influence electoral outcomes through manipulated polls that have unacceptable error rates and are not grounded in widely accepted polling methodologies,” the lawsuit contends. &#8220;While Selzer is not the only pollster to engage in this corrupt practice, she had a huge platform and following and, thus, a significant and impactful opportunity to deceive voters. As Selzer knows, this type of manipulation creates a narrative of inevitability for Democrat candidates, increases enthusiasm among Democrats, compels Republicans to divert campaign time and money to areas in which they are ahead, and deceives the public into believing that Democrat candidates are performing better than they really are.&#8221;
Trump&#8217;s attorneys stated that voters were &#8220;badly deceived and misled as to the actual position of the respective candidates in the Iowa Presidential race. &#8230; Moreover, President Trump, the Trump 2024 Campaign, and other Republicans were forced to divert enormous campaign and financial resources to Iowa based on the deceptive Harris Poll.”

Meet the Press – Season 78

‘Election-Interfering Fiction’: Trump Sues Iowa Pollster, Publisher For Poll Released November 2

2024 Election

Donald Trump

Iowa

Lawsuit

Poll

Nearly three weeks after the polls closed on Election Day, voters are still waiting for the final results in three U.S. House races: two in California and one in Iowa.
Republicans will hold a slim majority in the 119th Congress, but the exact size of that majority remains up in the air as the final results for three close races remain unknown. The Associated Press and Decision Desk HQ have yet to declare a winner in the races for California&#8217;s 13th and 45th Congressional districts. The AP also has not made a call in the race for Iowa&#8217;s 1st Congressional district, as ballots continue to be counted.
According to the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/05/us/elections/results-california-us-house-13.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">latest count</a> in California&#8217;s 13th district, Republican Rep. John Duarte holds a 204-vote lead over Democrat Adam Gray. Fox News <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/politics/size-slim-republican-house-majority-hangs-5-uncalled-races" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported</a> that less than 3% of the vote still needs to be counted. The contest is similar to the 2022 midterm election when Duarte <a href="https://californiaglobe.com/fr/13th-house-district-race-between-duarte-gray-within-351-votes-with-98-of-the-vote-in/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">won</a> over Gray in what was the closest House race in the country, squeaking out a victory by just 564 votes. The 2022 race wasn&#8217;t called until early December.
In California&#8217;s 45th Congressional district, Democrat Derek Tran leads Republican Rep. Michelle Steel by 545 votes, according to <a href="https://www.mercurynews.com/2024/11/25/election-2024-results-derek-tran-adds-a-little-to-his-lead-over-michelle-steel/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Mercury News</a>. Ninety-nine percent of the vote in the 45th district race has been counted.
In Iowa, Republican Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks is hoping to hold onto her slight lead over Democrat Christina Bohannan as a recount of the race began over the weekend. Miller-Meeks leads by 800 votes and <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/politics/incumbent-iowa-republican-says-dem-house-opponent-wasting-taxpayer-money-recount" target="_blank" rel="noopener">slammed</a> her opponent&#8217;s recount request as a waste of &#8220;taxpayer money.&#8221; Decision Desk HQ has called the race for Miller-Meeks, but the Associated Press has not declared a winner.
<a href="https://get.dailywire.com/gift-guide/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CHECK OUT THE DAILY WIRE HOLIDAY GIFT GUIDE</a>
According to the AP&#8217;s results, Republicans hold 219 seats to Democrats&#8217; 213. If the current results hold in each of the uncalled House races, the final tally would be 221 seats for the GOP and 214 for the Democrats. Republicans will also be faced with special elections to replace Reps. <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/trump-offers-elise-stefanik-u-n-ambassadorship" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Elise Stefanik</a> (NY) and <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/trump-taps-mike-waltz-as-national-security-advisor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Mike Waltz</a> (FL), who were tapped to serve in the new Trump administration, and former Florida Rep. <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/matt-gaetz-says-he-will-not-rejoin-congress-after-withdrawing-from-ag-consideration" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Matt Gaetz, </a>who resigned.

House GOP Leadership

Multiple House Races Remain Uncalled Nearly 3 Weeks After Election

California

Elections

House Republicans

Politics

U.S. House of Representatives

Pollster J. Ann Selzer announced over the weekend that she would be stepping away from election polling after her survey in <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/topic/iowa" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Iowa</a>, which had been widely regarded as a <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/gold-standard-poll-a-bad-omen-for-biden-in-midwestern-states" target="_blank" rel="noopener">&#8220;gold-standard&#8221;</a> poll in political forecasting, fumbled the 2024 presidential election.
&#8220;Over a year ago I advised the Register I would not renew when my 2024 contract expired with the latest election poll as I transition to other ventures and opportunities,&#8221; Selzer wrote in a guest column <a href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/opinion/columnists/2024/11/17/ann-selzer-conducts-iowa-poll-ending-election-polling-moving-to-other-opportunities/76334909007/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">published</a> on Sunday by the Des Moines Register.
&#8220;Would I have liked to make this announcement after a final poll aligned with Election Day results? Of course,&#8221; she added. &#8220;It’s ironic that it’s just the opposite.&#8221;
Selzer &amp; Company&#8217;s final poll of the 2024 election cycle for the Register and Mediacom <a href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/02/iowa-poll-kamala-harris-leads-donald-trump-2024-presidential-race/75354033007/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">found</a> Vice President Kamala Harris leading President-elect Donald Trump 47% to 44% among likely voters in Iowa, while other surveys conducted in the final stretch of the 2024 campaign <a href="https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/iowa/trump-vs-harris" target="_blank" rel="noopener">showed</a> Trump ahead of Harris. Ultimately, Trump <a href="https://election.dailywire.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">defeated</a> Harris 56% to 42.7% in Iowa, marking his third general election victory in the Hawkeye State in a row.
Trump&#8217;s campaign released a <a href="https://x.com/AlexPfeiffer/status/1854002937330311175" target="_blank" rel="noopener">statement</a> mocking Selzer after it became clear that Trump would beat Harris in Iowa.
&#8220;Congratulations to Donald J. Trump and J.D. Vance on their victory,&#8221; Trump Campaign Deputy Political Director Alex Latcham said in a statement. &#8220;After four years under Kamala Harris, Hawkeye state voters are eager for President Trump to fix what Kamala Harris broke. Starting on Day 1, President Trump and Vice President JD Vance will help to ease costs, secure the border, and protect Social Security for retirees like Ann Selzer.&#8221;
On Election Night, Selzer <a href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/opinion/2024/11/07/ann-selzer-well-look-at-data-to-try-to-understand-iowa-poll-miss/76100172007/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a> that she would be reviewing the data from her &#8220;outlier&#8221; poll that showed Harris leading Trump by 3 percentage points when it became clear that it had missed the mark. And Register Executive Editor Carol Hunter <a href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/05/pollster-j-ann-selzer-to-review-data-after-iowa-poll-misses-trump-win/76085598007/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a> her newspaper would also be &#8220;closely reviewing the disparity.&#8221;
In her guest column on Sunday, Selzer wrote that her &#8220;history of accuracy&#8221; might have &#8220;made the outlier position too comfortable.&#8221; She said that polling &#8220;is a science of estimation, and science has a way of periodically humbling the scientist. So, I’m humbled, yet always willing to learn from unexpected findings.&#8221; Selzer also shared her future plans, saying, &#8220;My work will continue for current clients and for clients yet to come. In addition, I’m thinking about how to put other talents to work for the benefit of new clients.&#8221;

‘Gold-Standard’ Pollster Who Overlooked Trump Win In Iowa Calls It Quits

Kamala Harris

Polls

U.S.

Daily Wire host and author Michael Knowles gave a speech titled, “We Are So Back: How The Libs Lost Everything,” at the University of Iowa Monday night, where he was met with dozens of protesters. 
The protesters at the event, which was hosted by Young America’s Foundation (YAF), <a href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/local/2024/11/12/protesters-gather-on-ui-campus-as-daily-wires-michael-knowles-visits/76223743007/?taid=6733b746f5c1290001e1b6f2&amp;utm_campaign=trueanthem&amp;utm_medium=social&amp;utm_source=twitter">chanted</a>, “F*** you, fascists,” &#8220;Transphobes you better beware, we&#8217;re not going anywhere,&#8221; &#8220;We will not be silenced by transphobic violence,” and other left-wing slogans. 
Knowles reacted to some of the protests online, writing, “Do all my protesters have COVID?” — a reference to the many students wearing masks. 
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
Do all my protesters have COVID? <a href="https://t.co/Jrry11KtC7">pic.twitter.com/Jrry11KtC7</a>
— Michael Knowles (@michaeljknowles) <a href="https://twitter.com/michaeljknowles/status/1856197178214986178?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 12, 2024</a></blockquote>
During the speech, Knowles also addressed the protests that had been taking place at the university leading up to his speech. Knowles referenced a reporter who claimed it was the conservative who “incited” the pushback on campus, which included vandalism. 
“Apparently, my very presence stirs in liberals an irrepressible urge to commit violence,” Knowles mocked. “How dare I! How dare all of us conservatives ever speak!” 
Transitioning to the media, Knowles explained how the “libs lost everything” this election cycle. 
&#8220;How did the libs lose everything? I think the press, as much as any other person or institution &#8230; deserves credit for the landslide victory last Tuesday,” he said.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
.<a href="https://twitter.com/michaeljknowles?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@michaeljknowles</a>: &#8220;How did the libs lose everything? I think the press, as much as any other person or institution&#8230;deserves credit for the landslide victory last Tuesday. The press&#8230;overplayed its hand.&#8221; <a href="https://t.co/oLq52Hjyzx">pic.twitter.com/oLq52Hjyzx</a>
— YAF (@yaf) <a href="https://twitter.com/yaf/status/1856144838078370036?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 12, 2024</a></blockquote>
Knowles also talked about transgender politics, which has been dubbed the “sleeper issue” of the 2024 election. 
<a href="https://www.amiracist.com/?_gl=1*jtghwp*_gcl_au*ODQ1NjYzNTg2LjE3Mjg5MDk3OTE.*_ga*MTc2NzM0NDQ2NS4xNzI4OTA5Nzkx*_ga_CZKR9ZYKJP*MTczMDEyMDgwOS40OS4xLjE3MzAxMjA4MzkuMzAuMC4w" target="_blank" rel="noopener">MATT WALSH’S ‘AM I RACIST?’ NOW STREAMING ON DAILYWIRE+</a>
&#8220;The trans issue has taken on such national prominence because it reveals the extent to which our political elites are willing to lie to us,” Knowles said. “The transgender issue revealed that the Left had lost common sense.&#8221;
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-media-max-width="560">
.<a href="https://twitter.com/michaeljknowles?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@michaeljknowles</a>: &#8220;The trans issue has taken on such national prominence because it reveals the extent to which our political elites are willing to lie to us&#8230;The transgender issue revealed that the left had lost the common sense.&#8221; <a href="https://t.co/bR6ve8fpAV">pic.twitter.com/bR6ve8fpAV</a>
— YAF (@yaf) <a href="https://twitter.com/yaf/status/1856148570816024988?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 12, 2024</a></blockquote>
The trans issue was further discussed after one female student suggested Knowles and other conservatives are mean to people who say they are transgender and need to merely open their hearts. Knowles rejected the premise and explained why transgenderism, as the Left understands it, does not actually exist since men cannot be women and women cannot be men. 
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-media-max-width="560">
&#8220;&#8216;Transgenderism is normal&#8217; seems to undercut the transgender ideology.&#8221;<a href="https://twitter.com/michaeljknowles?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@michaeljknowles</a> responds to transgender advocate. <a href="https://t.co/t6EkSSjnHw">pic.twitter.com/t6EkSSjnHw</a>
— Daily Wire (@realDailyWire) <a href="https://twitter.com/realDailyWire/status/1856152348193693783?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 12, 2024</a></blockquote>
WATCH the full speech <a href="https://www.youtube.com/live/qsCgSoP3uHs?si=bS7aHVbuZII1bfGS" target="_blank" rel="noopener">HERE</a>.

Michael Knowles

‘F*** You, Fascists!’: Michael Knowles Addresses Protests, Trans Issues In Campus Speech

‘F*** You, Fascists!’: Michael Knowles Addresses Protests, Trans Issue During Speech At UI

Education

The Daily Wire

Transgender

Young America's Foundation

While most Americans focus on the presidential election between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, the undercard fights on every ballot in the country will determine which party will control the House of Representatives in 2025.
Unlike the U.S. Senate, where winning the election puts you in office for six years, every single House seat is up for grabs each election cycle. Republicans currently <a href="https://pressgallery.house.gov/member-data/party-breakdown" target="_blank" rel="noopener">control</a> the House by a slim eight-seat majority — 220 to 212 — and there are three vacancies. That means Democrats need to pick up at least five seats to tilt the scales.
There are dozens of competitive races that will determine who holds the all-powerful gavel going into 2025 — and whichever party wins the presidency will be hamstrung without control of the lower chamber of Congress.
Here are 10 toss-up House races to watch on Election Day, and potentially in the days following:
<h4>Alaska — Lone District</h4>
The only House district in Alaska is held by Democrat Mary Peltola who beat out Republicans Sarah Palin and Nicholas Begich in 2022. With her 2022 win, Peltola became the first Democrat from Alaska to serve in the House since 1972. Peltola&#8217;s victory two years ago was due, in part, to Alaska&#8217;s ranked-choice voting system, which split the Republican vote between Palin and Begich. This year, Peltola is running against Begich, Democrat Eric Hafner, and John Howe of the Independence Party.
Following a September <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/alaska-democrat-flips-on-men-in-womens-sports-following-daily-wire-report" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Daily Wire report</a> on Peltola&#8217;s transgender stances, the Democrat flipped her position on men competing in women&#8217;s sports, saying during a debate in October, &#8220;I don’t think that we should have men competing in women’s sports.&#8221;
In the most recent polls of the race, Begich <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/house/2024/alaska/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">leads</a> Peltola by around 4 points. In Alaska&#8217;s ranked-choice voting system, a candidate must reach over 50% before being declared the winner. The Decision Desk HQ <a href="https://elections2024.thehill.com/forecast/2024/house/alaska-at-large/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">forecast</a> currently gives Begich a 62% chance of winning the race.
<h4>Arizona — 1st District</h4>
Republican David Schweikert has held the 1st District seat in Arizona since 2023 after serving as the 6th District&#8217;s congressman for 10 years. Schweikert has focused on fiscal conservatism and addressing the national debt. Schweikert squeaked out a victory by just over 3,000 votes in 2022 over Democrat Jevin Hodge. His opponent this year is Democrat Amish Shah, a current state representative and emergency room doctor, who has <a href="https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/10/08/amish-shah-gets-primetime-interview-as-david-schweikert-avoids-debate/75210240007/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">focused</a> on abortion.
Parts of Arizona&#8217;s 1st District fall in Maricopa County, where election officials <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/officials-in-arizonas-maricopa-county-say-counting-ballots-could-take-up-to-13-days" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a> last month that it could take up to 13 days to “complete tabulation of all the ballots that come in.” Maricopa County, which is the largest county in Arizona, was also at the center of controversy in the aftermath of the 2020 and 2022 elections.
The Decision Desk HQ <a href="https://elections2024.thehill.com/forecast/2024/house/arizona-1/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">forecast</a> currently gives Schweikert a 68% chance of winning re-election.
<h4>Arizona — 6th District</h4>
First-term Republican Juan Ciscomani is running for re-election in Arizona&#8217;s 6th District and is in a tight race with the Democrat he barely beat in 2022, Kirsten Engel. Ciscomani has centered his campaign on pushing for more border security amid the record border encounters during the Biden-Harris administration. Engel, meanwhile, is focused on pro-abortion policies.
The 6th Congressional District is located in Arizona&#8217;s southeast corner. The Decision Desk HQ <a href="https://elections2024.thehill.com/forecast/2024/house/arizona-6/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">forecast</a> currently gives Ciscomani an 83% chance of winning.
<h4>California — 13th District</h4>
First-term Republican John Duarte faces off against Democrat Adam Gray in California&#8217;s 13th District. Duarte narrowly defeated Gray in the 2022 election. The freshman congressman is a moderate Republican who officially <a href="https://www.turlockjournal.com/news/government/rep-duarte-backs-trump-calls-conviction-miscarriage-justice/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">endorsed</a> Trump earlier this year after the former president was convicted on 34 felony counts in a Manhattan court. Gray, who served in California&#8217;s State Assembly, lost to Duarte in 2022 by just over 500 votes in what was one of the closest House races that year.
The Decision Desk HQ <a href="https://elections2024.thehill.com/forecast/2024/house/california-13/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">forecast</a> gives Duarte a 55% chance of defeating Gray again.
<h4>Colorado — 8th District</h4>
Another freshman congressman, Democrat Yadira Caraveo, is being challenged by Republican Gabe Evans, a state representative and former police officer and Army captain. The race in Colorado&#8217;s 8th District has grown closer in recent weeks. Caraveo currently has a 71% chance of winning, according to <a href="https://elections2024.thehill.com/forecast/2024/house/colorado-8/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Decision Desk HQ</a>.
<h4>Iowa — 3rd District</h4>
Republican Zach Nunn, a first-term congressman, faces Democrat Lanon Baccam in Iowa&#8217;s 3rd District. Baccam, a veteran and federal Agriculture Department official, has hammered Nunn over the issue of abortion. Nunn, meanwhile, has focused his campaign on the economy and has hit the trail with Iowa Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds.
Nunn pulled off an upset over Democrat Rep. Cindy Axne in 2022, helping the GOP secure control of the House. Decision Desk HQ gives Nunn a <a href="https://elections2024.thehill.com/forecast/2024/house/iowa-3/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">55% chance</a> of winning.
<h4>Michigan — 7th District</h4>
After Democrat Rep. Elissa Slotkin entered the race for retiring Sen. Debbie Stabenow&#8217;s seat, Michigan&#8217;s 7th District was thrown wide open with Republican Tom Barrett seeking to flip the seat for the GOP. Curtis Hertel is challenging Barrett in hopes of keeping the district in the hands of the Democrats. Barrett lost to Slotkin by around 5 points in the 2022 election.
Hertel was recently <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/dem-running-in-michigan-swing-district-says-americans-owe-a-debt-to-illegal-immigrants" target="_blank" rel="noopener">criticized</a> for saying on video that Americans &#8220;owe a debt&#8221; to illegal immigrants, adding that he has no &#8220;interest in deporting anybody.&#8221;
Current polling shows Barrett with a slight edge over Hertel. Barrett has a <a href="https://elections2024.thehill.com/forecast/2024/house/michigan-7/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">63% chance</a> of winning, according to Decision Desk HQ.
<h4>Michigan — 8th District</h4>
Another district in the battleground state of Michigan could be a pick-up for Republicans. Democrat Rep. Dan Kildee, who represented Michigan&#8217;s 8th District, announced last year that he would not seek re-election, creating another open House seat. Republican Paul Junge has focused on securing the border while Democrat Kristen McDonald Rivet has focused on abortion.
According to <a href="https://elections2024.thehill.com/forecast/2024/house/michigan-8/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Decision Desk HQ</a>, Junge currently holds a 55% chance of winning the race.
<h4>New York — 19th District</h4>
Republicans could lose a seat in New York&#8217;s 19th District where incumbent Republican Marc Molinaro faces a tough challenge from Democrat Josh Riley. Molinaro has voted across the party line while in Congress, but during the campaign, he has focused on immigration, a top issue for Republicans. Riley served as general counsel to U.S. Senator Al Franken on the Senate Judiciary Committee and has &#8220;<a href="https://joshrileyforcongress.com/meet-josh/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">championed</a> an effort in federal court to ratify the federal Equal Rights Amendment, which would make abortion access a constitutional right.&#8221;
The 2024 race is a rematch of 2022 when Molinaro won by nearly 4 points. Molinaro was favored to win the race for most of the 2024 campaign, according to forecasts by <a href="https://elections2024.thehill.com/forecast/2024/house/new-york-19/">Decision Desk HQ</a>, but now Riley currently has a 58% chance of winning.
<h4>Oregon — 5th District</h4>
In Oregon&#8217;s 5th District, Republicans are hoping to hold onto another seat as incumbent Lori Chavez-Deremer faces Democrat challenger Janelle Bynum. Chavez-Deremer won in a tight race in 2022 over Democrat Jamie McLeod-Skinner, giving the Republicans another important seat in its slim majority.
The Daily Wire <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/swing-state-dem-voted-to-fund-down-payment-assistance-for-illegal-immigrants" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported</a> in September that Bynum sponsored legislation that sent hundreds of thousands of dollars to a program that discriminates against U.S. citizens and offers down payment assistance to illegal immigrants.
Chavez-Deremer is narrowly favored to win the race, standing at 58% in Decision Desk HQ&#8217;s <a href="https://elections2024.thehill.com/forecast/2024/house/oregon-5/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">forecast</a>.
<h4>Many other close races to watch</h4>
Of course, this isn&#8217;t an all-encompassing list of House races to keep an eye on come Election Night. But each one will play a pivotal role in determining which party will be in power in January. Decision Desk HQ gives Republicans a 53% chance of maintaining a majority in the House, with the overall seat <a href="https://elections2024.thehill.com/forecast/2024/house/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">projections</a> showing the GOP at 218 and Democrats at 217.

The United States Capitol building

10 Must-Watch Races That Could Determine Control Of The House

10 Races That Could Determine Control Of The House

Alaska

Colorado

Michigan

New York

Oregon

More than 2,100 people on Iowa’s voter rolls self-declared as non-citizens when registering for drivers licenses, Iowa Secretary of State Paul D. Pate said.
He provided the names to US Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS), which researched each name and determined that at least 250 are still non-citizens &#8212; but refused to tell Iowa which ones, Pate said.
Meanwhile, left-wing groups sued to block him from directing local officials to challenge votes cast by people on the list on the basis that the data wasn&#8217;t fully confirmed.
“The Des Moines Field Office [of USCIS] has since informed us that they had completed a review of every name. Now, the office in Washington, D.C. is refusing to let the Des Moines office share those results with us. This information would be critical to Iowa’s election officials in this process,” Pater wrote in an October 31 letter.
“The work has been done. The most current, verified information is available. Yet Washington, D.C. will not share it with us,” it continued. “If the federal government has information that will ensure only U.S. citizens vote AND ensure naturalized citizens can cast their ballot as normal, that information must be shared.” 
Pate said he has asked the federal Department of Justice to intervene, but it refused. That led him to resort to seeking intervention from the state’s senators, Chuck Grassley and Joni Ernst, both Republicans. The pair wrote to USCIS Director Ur Jaddou to demand that he provide the data by November 1, but he did not, they said.
“Anything short of the information Secretary Pate requested is unacceptable. Iowa has worked in good faith to secure its electoral process and safeguard Americans’ cherished right to vote. Unfortunately, USCIS’ stonewalling has led to more questions than answers,” they <a href="https://www.grassley.senate.gov/news/news-releases/grassley-and-ernst-advocate-for-election-integrity-demand-uscis-respond-to-iowas-data-request-on-potential-non-citizen-voters" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a> in a statement.
Pate was not attempting to remove them all from the voter rolls and people who were flagged would still be able to cast provisional votes.
The refusal of the federal government to tell a state whether registered voters are citizens or not is a stunning development after the DOJ sued the state of Virginia for removing self-declared noncitizens from its rolls by saying that it could only be done if each case was researched individually, and if it could be ensured that American citizens who were mistakenly listed would not be removed from the rolls. Both of those things apparently occurred in the Iowa case, yet the federal government still made it impossible to remove the names.
In Virginia, people who said they were not citizens when applying for drivers licenses, then registered to vote, were sent a letter asking them to clarify whether it was a mix-up or not, and if they did not respond within 14 days, then they were removed from the rolls but would still be able to cast a provisional ballot. The Biden-Harris DOJ <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/exclusive-biden-suing-va-for-purging-illegals-from-voting-rolls-even-though-doj-approved-the-law" target="_blank" rel="noopener">sued</a> to block the move, claiming it was burdensome for people to have to respond to a letter. 
The lawsuit said that Virginia was free to remove non-citizens from its rolls through “systematic” means, but only outside of a 90-day “quiet period” before an election. Given that there are primary and general elections, that could mean the majority of an election year is off-limits.
Two lower courts sided with the DOJ, but the Supreme Court reversed them and allowed Virginia to remove the voters.
Update: On Sunday evening, a federal judge sided with Iowa, saying no one disputed that at least some names on the list were, in fact, noncitizens who registered to vote, and &#8220;it would not be appropriate for the court to respond by granting injunctive relief that effectively forces local election officials to allow ineligible voters to vote.&#8221;

Homeland Security

DHS Says Iowa Has Hundreds Of Noncitizens On Voter Rolls, But Won’t Tell State Who They Are

Department of Justice

Immigration

Iowa police arrested a trans-identifying 19-year-old on Monday and charged her with a &#8220;threat of terrorism&#8221; after she revealed in therapy that she wanted to shoot up an elementary school, The Daily Wire has learned.
The Norwalk Police Department announced Monday that it had arrested Margaret Anderson after being made aware last week of a &#8220;potential threat&#8221; to Oviatt Elementary School, located in Norwalk, Iowa. In a release, the department said that Anderson has been charged with a &#8220;Threat of Terrorism&#8221; under Iowa Code 708A.5, and had been processed into the Warren County Jail.
Anderson is a 19-year-old female who identifies as a transgender man, Warren County Attorney Doug Eichholz confirmed to The Daily Wire on Tuesday. The police department said on Monday that Margaret also went by Maxwell, raising initial suspicions that gender identity was at play in the case.
Eichholz said that the case arose out of statements that Anderson made to her therapist during the course of her &#8220;regular treatment.&#8221; The therapist then reported the statements to the Des Moines Police Department, he said, which forwarded the information to the Norwalk Police Department in her hometown.
&#8220;And then the investigation took off from there,&#8221; he explained.
According to Eichholz, the complaint about Anderson says: &#8220;The defendant stated that she had thoughts that she wanted to take a gun to Oviatt Elementary School in Norwalk, at 11 am through the cafeteria, and shoot children.&#8221;
The complaint did not contain context as to why Anderson was motivated to shoot children, the Warren County Attorney said. He noted that after Anderson shared these thoughts, she was immediately entered into Iowa Lutheran Hospital in Des Moines, which has a mental health facility attached. She was then arrested on Monday, Eichholz said, released Tuesday morning to house arrest with restrictions including a GPS bracelet, and is currently on pretrial release.
Shawn Holloway, superintendent of Norwalk Community School District, did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
<div id="attachment_797997" style="width: 1538px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><a href="https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2024/09/Screenshot-2024-09-17-at-2.40.18%E2%80%AFPM.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-797997" class="wp-image-797997 size-full" src="https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2024/09/Screenshot-2024-09-17-at-2.40.18%E2%80%AFPM.png" alt="" width="1528" height="1272" srcset="https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2024/09/Screenshot-2024-09-17-at-2.40.18%E2%80%AFPM.png 1528w, https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2024/09/Screenshot-2024-09-17-at-2.40.18%E2%80%AFPM-300x250.png 300w, https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2024/09/Screenshot-2024-09-17-at-2.40.18%E2%80%AFPM-692x576.png 692w, https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2024/09/Screenshot-2024-09-17-at-2.40.18%E2%80%AFPM-768x639.png 768w" sizes="(max-width: 1528px) 100vw, 1528px" /></a>Courtesy of the Norwalk County Sheriff&#8217;s Department.</div>
The revelation comes more than a year after a trans-identifying shooter <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/covenant-shooters-entire-diary-published-revealing-obsession-with-white-privilege-transgenderism">killed three children and three adults</a> at Covenant Christian School in Nashville in March 2023. News that the shooter identified as transgender caused many in the mainstream media to suggest, even as families were newly mourning the victims, that the shooter&#8217;s transgender identity was irrelevant and that the LGBTQ community was in danger from reprisals.
A number of LGBTQ groups told <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/audrey-hale-manifesto-release-raises-major-concerns-among-lgbtq-groups-1790938?utm_medium=Social&amp;utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1680027396" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Newsweek</a> that the publication of the shooter&#8217;s manifesto could have “serious consequences,&#8221; and <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/nbc-out/out-news/fear-pervades-tennessees-trans-community-focus-nashville-shooters-gend-rcna77066?cid=sm_npd_nn_tw_ma" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">NBC News published</a> a story saying that “fear pervades Tennessee’s trans community amid focus on Nashville shooter’s gender identity,&#8221; citing a transgender activist who reportedly told the publication, “We were already fearing for our lives. Now, it’s even worse.”
The FBI would claim that it withheld the shooter&#8217;s 100-page journal in the name of public safety, <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/fbi-told-nashville-police-release-of-school-shooter-writings-would-lead-to-conspiracy-theories-inaccurate-info">suggesting that it would lead</a> to “conspiracy theories” and “inaccurate information.&#8221; The Tennessee Star published the shooter&#8217;s entire journal in early September, and the writings <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/covenant-shooters-entire-diary-published-revealing-obsession-with-white-privilege-transgenderism">revealed</a> the shooter was obsessed with ideas of transgenderism and white privilege, and frequently wrote about her autism and depression.

Screenshot 2024-09-17 at 2.58.59 PM

Trans-Identifying 19-Year-Old Arrested After Expressing Desire To Shoot Up Elementary School

LGBTQ

The <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/topic/iowa" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Iowa</a> Supreme Court ruled on Friday that a law banning abortion when an unborn baby&#8217;s heartbeat can be detected can take effect in a victory for pro-life advocates.
In a 4-3 decision, the court said that protecting unborn babies when their heartbeats can be detected is a legitimate state interest. The decision means that Iowa’s previous 20-week limit on abortion <a href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2024/06/28/iowa-supreme-court-clears-way-for-6-week-fetal-heartbeat-abortion-ban-womens-rights/74169072007/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">will soon</a> be around six weeks once the court&#8217;s ruling officially takes effect.
“We have previously held that abortion is not a fundamental right under the Iowa Constitution,” Justice Matthew McDermott <a href="https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/24781867/231145_c03d97c16be14.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">wrote</a> for the majority. “Applying our established tiers of scrutiny, we hold that abortion restrictions alleged to violate the due process clause are subject to the rational basis test. Employing that test here, we conclude that the fetal heartbeat statute is rationally related to the state’s legitimate interest in protecting unborn life.”
“We thus reverse the district court order entering the temporary injunction blocking enforcement of the fetal heartbeat statute and remand for further proceedings,” McDermott wrote.
The state was sued by Planned Parenthood and the American Civil Liberties Union after Governor Kim Reynolds signed the heartbeat bill into law after Republican lawmakers passed it during a special session last year. The law includes exceptions for rape and incest.
In a dissenting opinion, Chief Justice Susan Christensen claimed the law was a setback for women.
“Today, our court’s majority strips Iowa women of their bodily autonomy by holding that there is no fundamental right to terminate a pregnancy under our state constitution,” she wrote. “The majority’s rigid approach relies heavily on the male-dominated history and traditions of the 1800s, all the while ignoring how far women’s rights have come since the Civil War era.”
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Iowa Republicans <a href="https://governor.iowa.gov/press-release/2024-06-28/gov-reynolds-republican-leaders-release-statements-iowa-supreme-court-fetal-heartbeat-ruling" target="_blank" rel="noopener">celebrated</a> the ruling from the court.
&#8220;There is no right more sacred than life, and nothing more worthy of our strongest defense than the innocent unborn,” Reynolds said in a statement. “As the heartbeat bill finally becomes law, we are deeply committed to supporting women in planning for motherhood, and promoting fatherhood and its importance in parenting.”
House Speaker Pat Grassley said that courts had stood in the way of pro-life protections for a long time.
“This ruling is a victory in the fight to protect unborn children in Iowa,” Grassley said. “The Legislature is elected by the people, and for too long, the courts have stood in the way of Iowans having their voices heard on this matter.”

Iowa:  First Battleground State In The Presidential Election

Top Iowa Court Allows State’s Heartbeat Law To Take Effect After Planned Parenthood Lawsuit

Abortion

ACLU

Courts

Kim Reynolds

Planned Parenthood

An <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/topic/illegal-immigration" target="_blank" rel="noopener">illegal alien</a> who entered the U.S. under President Joe Biden has recently pled guilty to raping a 12-year-old girl in Iowa.
The Washington Examiner exclusively <a href="https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/immigration/3051196/illegal-immigrant-iowa-pleads-guilty-sexually-assaulting-12-girl/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported</a> on Tuesday that Honduran national Junior Manuel Dubon Benitez, 18, pled guilty last month in Iowa District Court to raping the child.
He was arrested this year on Valentine&#8217;s Day on suspicion of “sexual abuse upon Jane Doe a 12 year old child” at a home in Waterloo, Iowa. The attack happened a few days before he was arrested.
Dubon Benitez was initially charged with second-degree sexual abuse, but accepted a plea deal for third-degree sexual abuse, the report said, adding that he faces up to 10 years in state prison.
Dubon Benitez, 18, illegally entered the U.S near Hidalgo, Texas, in April 2022 as a 16-year-old, the report said.
U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) filed a detainer request against him so that when he is released from state prison, he will be deported back to Honduras.
The news comes after another Biden-era illegal alien admitted to prosecutors in New York City this week that he, too, raped a young girl.
Christian Geovanny Inga-Landi, 25, was arraigned on multiple charges after a group of Good Samaritans beat him up and held him until authorities were able to arrest him early on Tuesday. He had been on the run for several days after the attack on a 13-year-old girl in Kissena Park in Queens.
The New York Post <a href="https://nypost.com/2024/06/19/us-news/ecuadorian-migrant-who-allegedly-raped-13-year-old-nyc-girl-said-he-recorded-the-attack-in-sickening-confession-da/?utm_campaign=nypost&amp;utm_source=twitter&amp;utm_medium=social" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported</a> that the Ecuadorian national was charged with predatory sexual assault, first-degree rape, two counts of second-degree kidnapping, two counts of first-degree robbery, second-degree rape, first-degree sexual abuse, obstructing governmental administration, and two counts of endangering the welfare of a child.
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Prosecutors said in court that Inga-Landi, who illegally entered the U.S. in 2021, stated during a videotaped confession: “I was nervous at first, then got comfortable and recorded it.” Assistant District Attorney Kasey Esposito reportedly read the transcript of the videotaped statement.
The illegal alien allegedly tied them together, stuffed a bandana in the girl’s mouth and cut off her shorts and underwear, and then raped her.
He then took their phones, ran away, and bought drugs, prosecutors said.
The New York Post separately <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/biden-admin-failed-to-deport-illegal-alien-accused-of-violent-child-rape-after-judge-ordered-it-2-years-ago" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported</a> that a federal immigration judge ordered him to be deported in February 2022, according to sources at the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). The report said that Inga-Landi illegally crossed into the U.S. at Eagle Pass, Texas, in June 2021 as part of the unprecedented wave of millions of illegal aliens pouring into the country under Biden.

Joe Biden

Biden-Era Illegal Alien Pleads Guilty To Raping Child In Iowa

Biden Administration

Illegal Immigration

Rape

An Iowa bill that was signed into law by Republican Governor Kim Reynolds in April allowing state authorities to arrest and deport some illegal immigrants was blocked by a federal judge, who ruled on Monday that the policy is unconstitutional.
U.S. District Judge Stephen Locher, who was appointed by President Joe Biden, wrote that Iowa&#8217;s &#8220;illegal reentry&#8221; law violates the Supremacy Clause of the Constitution and interferes with the federal government&#8217;s authority to enforce immigration laws, the Des Moines Register <a href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/crime-and-courts/2024/06/17/iowa-immigration-law-enforcement-blocked-by-federal-court/74130393007/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported</a>. The Department of Justice <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/biden-admin-sues-iowa-over-immigration-law-allowing-state-to-arrest-and-deport-illegal-immigrants" target="_blank" rel="noopener">sued</a> Iowa over the law last month, arguing that the state was &#8220;disregard[ing] the U.S. Constitution and settled Supreme Court precedent.&#8221;
The law, which was passed as Senate File 2340, allows state authorities to arrest and deport illegal immigrants who had previously been removed from the U.S. or denied entry into the country. It was set to take effect on July 1.
&#8220;As a matter of politics, the new legislation might be defensible. As a matter of constitutional law, it is not,&#8221; Locher wrote. &#8220;Under binding Supreme Court precedent, Senate File 2340 is preempted in its entirety by federal law and thus is invalid under the Supremacy Clause.&#8221;
Locher pointed to a 2012 Supreme Court ruling on an Arizona law that allowed state authorities to stop and detain people suspected of illegally crossing the border. The Supreme Court <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/2011/11-182" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ruled</a> 5-3 — with Justices Anthony Kennedy and John Roberts joining three liberal justices — that the Arizona immigration law interfered with federal government enforcement of laws already on the books. Justice Antonin Scalia argued that the Arizona law did not conflict with federal law and even worked to better enforce federal law.
Under Iowa&#8217;s law, illegal immigrants could face up to 10 years in prison for illegally reentering the U.S. if they were arrested for committing a separate felony. A judge would also be required to submit an order for deportation of an illegal immigrant convicted of unlawfully entering the U.S. Reynolds <a href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2024/04/10/reynolds-signs-law-letting-iowa-police-arrest-undocumented-immigrants-texas-illegal-reentry/73279222007/">said</a> in April that the state law was necessary because President Joe Biden &#8220;has failed to enforce our nation’s immigration laws, putting the protection and safety of Iowans at risk.&#8221;
Reynolds and Iowa Republican Attorney General Brenna Bird have vowed to appeal Judge Locher&#8217;s ruling, according to the Des Moines Register.
&#8220;I am disappointed in today’s court decision that blocks Iowa from stopping illegal reentry and keeping our communities safe,&#8221; Bird said. &#8220;Since Biden refuses to secure our borders, he has left states with no choice but to do the job for him.&#8221;
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The Iowa immigration law is similar to legislation passed in other GOP-controlled states such as Texas and Georgia. Texas&#8217; law authorizing state authorities to prosecute migrants for illegally crossing the southern border has also been <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2024/03/19/texas-sb-4-illegal-immigration/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">blocked</a>.
As Reynolds argued in Iowa, Texas Republican Governor Greg Abbott and Attorney General Ken Paxton said that the Biden administration is failing to address illegal immigration. Paxton added that the state has a constitutional duty to protect its citizens &#8220;from violent transnational cartels that flood the State with fentanyl, weapons, and all manner of brutality.”

Iowa State Capitol

Federal Judge Blocks Iowa Law Allowing State Authorities To Arrest, Deport Illegal Immigrants

Federal Judge Blocks Iowa Law Allowing State Authorities To Deport Illegal Immigrants

Court

Judge

What is widely regarded as a &#8220;gold-standard&#8221; <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/topic/polls" target="_blank" rel="noopener">poll</a> in <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/topic/iowa" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Iowa</a> touched off a swirl of commentary on Monday about how it portends a poor showing for President <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/topic/joe-biden" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Joe Biden</a> in battleground states across the Midwest.
A new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll from J. Ann Selzer&#8217;s company, Selzer &amp; Company, <a href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/06/17/2024-election-donald-trump-vs-joe-biden-vs-robert-kennedy-jr-iowa-poll/74088665007/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">found</a> that former President <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/topic/donald-trump" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Donald Trump</a> got 50% support among likely voters, 18 points ahead of Biden. Independent candidate <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/topic/robert-f-kennedy-jr" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Robert F. Kennedy Jr.</a> received 9% support.
The findings from the new poll, which also showed Trump increasing his lead since his conviction in a hush-money trial and Biden with a net approval rating of -39 in June, prompted discussion on social media.
&#8220;In 2020, Trump won Iowa by +8 points,&#8221; pollster Frank Luntz <a href="https://x.com/FrankLuntz/status/1802719407124500947" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said on X</a> in response to the results. &#8220;Now, Iowa’s best pollster shows him up +18 in the state – which is bad news for Biden in more competitive Midwestern states, like Wisconsin and Michigan.&#8221;
Luntz also <a href="https://x.com/FrankLuntz/status/1802720656267846134" target="_blank" rel="noopener">pointed</a> to results from the same pollster in 2020 showing Trump with a 1-point advantage in June of that year, tying Biden in September, and breaking ahead with a 7-point lead over Biden in October.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">
Here’s how the same pollster fared in 2020.
Their final poll in October had Trump up +7, and he won by +8. <a href="https://t.co/Ww0AMjd4rI">https://t.co/Ww0AMjd4rI</a>
&mdash; Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) <a href="https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/1802720656267846134?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 17, 2024</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Meghan McCain, a conservative pundit and daughter of the late Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), also suggested that Biden appears to be in jeopardy of losing in Wisconsin — a state in which he narrowly defeated Trump in the 2020 election.
&#8220;There is no scenario where Trump wins Iowa by 18 points but loses Wisconsin,&#8221; McCain said in a <a href="https://x.com/MeghanMcCain/status/1802687811495014411" target="_blank" rel="noopener">post</a> to X. &#8220;Ann Selzer is arguably the best pollster in the country (certainly Iowa) and her polls should be taken extremely seriously.&#8221;
Like in Wisconsin, Trump lost to Biden in Michigan and Pennsylvania in 2020 after he beat Hillary Clinton in those states in 2016.
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&#8220;Iowa is a red state and won&#8217;t be competitive in 2024, but the gold-standard Selzer poll is still valuable for this reason: IA has had a 7-10 point delta with key battlegrounds like WI/MI/PA in the last two elections, so the size of Trump&#8217;s lead matters. (DJT won it by 8 in &#8217;20.),&#8221; NBC News reporter Sahil Kapur <a href="https://x.com/sahilkapur/status/1802730170249294215" target="_blank" rel="noopener">observed.</a>
Polls across the country have, on average, <a href="https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reflected</a> a close match-up between Trump and Biden. They are poised to face off in their first debate of the 2024 election cycle next week. Kennedy does not currently qualify for the debate, but <a href="https://www.axios.com/2024/06/16/robert-kennedy-jr-ballot-access-cnn-debate-elections-2024" target="_blank" rel="noopener">may yet meet the criteria</a>.
Statistician Nate Silver recently <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/statistician-nate-silver-its-more-than-fair-to-ask-if-biden-should-drop-out-amid-all-time-low-approval-ratings" target="_blank" rel="noopener">floated</a> the idea of Biden dropping out as the best option for Democrats given the president&#8217;s low approval ratings. He responded to the latest poll from Selzer &amp; Company with a post to X that <a href="https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1802755002974310758" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a>, &#8220;It&#8217;s not a great sign for Biden that some of his worst numbers come from the best pollsters.&#8221;

US President Joe Biden

‘Gold-Standard’ Poll A Bad Omen For Biden In Midwestern States

Executive

Pennsylvania

Wisconsin

Three American citizens were stabbed in <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/topic/communist-china" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China</a> on Monday in what Chinese officials are describing as an “isolated incident.”
The stabbing <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/10/world/asia/cornell-college-attack-china.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">took place</a> as three Americans alongside a non-citizen resident of Iowa with their group were visiting Beishan Park, a public park in Jilin. The four victims were sent to a nearby hospital for treatment and are expected to recover. They were all associated with Cornell College, a private institution in Mt. Vernon, Iowa.
“I am angered and deeply troubled by the stabbing of 3 US citizens + a non-citizen resident of Iowa in Jilin, China,” said U.S. Ambassador to China Nicholas Burns on X. “A US Consular Officer visited the 4 in Jilin Hospital today where they are receiving treatment. We are doing all we can to help them &amp; hope for their full recovery.”
Cornell College President Jonathan Brand <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/10/world/asia/cornell-college-attack-china.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a> that the school had been in contact with the instructors and had been assisting them after the stabbing. They had been visiting the park with a member of the college’s partner school in China, Beihua University.
Police <a href="https://apnews.com/article/china-iowa-cornell-college-instructors-attacked-59ebabadcfe4da3bf76e08121e1a1e9f" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a> they identified the attacker as a 55-year-old with the last name of Cui. No motive has yet been given, but police said there was an argument with the attacker.
“The isolated incident will not disturb the normal cultural and people-to-people exchanges between China and the United States,” said Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Lin Jian.
One of the victims of the attack was David Zabner, a brother of Iowa Democratic Rep. Adam Zabner.
&#8220;We’d like to see David home in Iowa as soon as possible,&#8221; Zabner <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c844q27v732o" target="_blank" rel="noopener">told</a> the BBC. &#8220;We’re deeply thankful to the State Department and Iowa’s federal delegation and understand that they are working hard to make that happen.&#8221;
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Multiple Iowa officials posted online saying that they were watching the situation.
“I am in touch with Iowa’s federal delegation and the state department in response to this horrifying attack,” Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds posted on X. “Please pray for their full recovery, safe return, and their families here at home.”
White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said he was “deeply concerned” by the stabbings and that he hoped that “appropriate law enforcement steps are being taken.”
Cornell <a href="https://news.cornellcollege.edu/2018/11/cornell-begins-partnership-university-china/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">first partnered</a> with Beihua University back in 2018 where Cornell agreed to provide instruction on computers, math, and science, and Beihua would fund for travel of Cornell faculty to China to live and teach a course.
The attack comes amid high tensions between the U.S. and China as American lawmakers have warned about Chinese theft of American economic, military, and intellectual property.

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