For perhaps the first time during his entire presidency, it seems reasonably clear that President Donald Trump is a favorite to win a second term at the ballot box this November.
For a myriad of reasons, Trump has always been an ahistorical president. He famously lost the national popular vote in the 2016 presidential election, instead relying on a Rust Belt-centric coalition to secure a narrow victory in the Electoral College. The somewhat lopsided nature of the final Electoral College margin obscured the fact that Trump’s victory was only due to a mere 77,000+ voters spread across Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. And Trump’s job approval rating average has never once risen above 50%, which has oftentimes been viewed as a marker presidential incumbents strive to hit in order to feel comfortable about their chances for re-election.
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