Former Vice President Joe Biden’s once-solid double-digit lead over the rest of the field of 2020 Democratic Party presidential nominees shrunk, in recent weeks, before substantially re-expanding over the past few weeks. Biden currently stands 8.5% above second-place Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) in the average of recent national polling. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, and Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) round out the top five in most recent national polling. Increasingly, the field appears to be shaping up as a three-horse race among Biden, Warren, and Sanders, although Buttigieg has recently been surging in Iowa.
Biden’s once-formidable lead dramatically narrowed since its high watermark in May, although it has since grown back substantially from a recent nadir of less than 1%. Warren has generally been on the upswing over the course of the past few months, although her national polling has taken a bit of a drop over the past few weeks. Warren and Sanders seem to be competing for a very similar voting demographic, and it is interesting to ponder the possibility of how one candidate would likely be substantially elevated were the other to drop out and endorse the other. Some polling data suggests that Sanders hypothetically dropping out would help Warren more than it would help Biden. But Sanders may be in this for the long haul, after all.
Electoral prediction market website PredictIt also pegs Warren as the favorite to win the presidential nomination over Biden — with Buttigieg, Sanders, and none other than Hillary Rodham Clinton following next. But while PredictIt showed Warren with a huge lead recently, her lead has over Biden has narrowed, of late. It is likely that many of these bettors are skittish about Biden’s age and perceived substantive centrism — with the latter especially worrisome among a Democratic Party base that is increasingly brazen and unabashed in its promotion of ardent, full-spectrum leftism. But to the extent Warren is a statistical frontrunner, she remains an extraordinarily weak frontrunner who only seems to be getting weaker over time.
The RealClearPolitics polling average for 10/23/19 – 11/03/19 shows Biden with an average national polling lead of 8.5%.
A recent Politico/Morning Consult national poll conducted from 10/28/19 – 11/03/19 showed Biden, at 32%, with a 12-point lead over both Warren and Sanders. No one else polled in double digits.
A recent Harvard-Harris national poll conducted from 10/29/19 – 10/31/19 showed Biden, at 33%, with a 15-point lead over Sanders. Sanders was up three points on Warren and no one else polled in double digits.
A recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal national poll conducted from 10/27/19 – 10/30/19 showed Biden, at 27%, with a four-point lead over Warren. Warren was up four points on Sanders and no one else polled in double digits.
A recent ABC News/Washington Post national poll conducted from 10/27/19 – 10/30/19 showed Biden, at 28%, with a five-point lead over Warren. Warren was up six points on Sanders and no one else polled in double digits.
A recent Fox News national poll conducted from 10/27/19 – 10/30/19 showed Biden, at 31%, with a ten-point lead over Warren. Warren was up two points on Sanders and no one else polled in double digits.
A recent Economist/YouGov national poll conducted from 10/27/19 – 10/29/19 showed Biden, at 27%, with a four-point lead over Warren. Warren was up nine points on Sanders and no one else polled in double digits.
A recent IBD/TIPP national poll conducted from 10/24/19 – 10/31/19 showed Biden, at 29%, with a six-point lead over Warren. Warren was up ten points on Sanders and no one else polled in double digits.
Will Warren and Biden remain the two frontrunners? Will Buttigieg or Yang catch more traction? Stay tuned.
Latest Aggregate Early State-By-State Polling Data
Iowa: Warren 22.3%, Buttigieg 17.0%, Biden 15.7%, Sanders 15.3%, Klobuchar 3.7%
New Hampshire: Warren 25.0%, Biden 21.0%, Sanders 20.0%, Buttigieg 8.7%, Harris 4.0%
Nevada: Biden 26.0%, Warren 19.5%, Sanders 18.5%, Buttigieg 4.8%, Harris 4.3%
South Carolina: Biden 35.0%, Warren 15.5%, Sanders 12.8%, Harris 7.0%, Steyer 4.5%
This article has been updated to reflect the most recent survey data.