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Who Will Win The Democratic Primary? The Latest On 2020 Presidential Primary Polling.

By  Josh Hammer
DETROIT, MICHIGAN - JULY 31: Democratic presidential candidates Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO) (L-R), Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY), former housing secretary Julian Castro, Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ), former Vice President Joe Biden, Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) , former tech executive Andrew Yang, Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI), Washington Gov. Jay Inslee, and New York City Mayor Bill De Blasio take the stage at the Democratic Presidential Debate at the Fox Theatre July 31, 2019 in Detroit, Michigan. 20 Democratic presidential candidates were split into two groups of 10 to take part in the debate sponsored by CNN held over two nights at Detroit’s Fox Theatre. (Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images)
Scott Olson/Getty Images

As we approach the first-in-the-nation Iowa caucuses, former Vice President Joe Biden continues to hold a sizable lead over the rest of the 2020 Democratic Party presidential primary field in national polling. Biden currently stands 8.0% above second-place Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) in the average of recent national polling. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg, and former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg round out the top five in most recent national polling. Sanders’ lead over third-place Warren is now substantial: 5.6%.

Buttigieg and Sanders have both been surging in the crucial early-voting states of Iowa and New Hampshire over the past couple of months, although Buttigieg’s moment may have finally passed. Sanders can always reliably count on the fact that his supporters are the most enthusiastic and loyal of any candidate’s in this 2020 Democratic presidential primary field. The septuagenarian socialist Sanders is likely the candidate with the most momentum at the present moment, although Biden himself has slowly crept back up in both the Iowa and New Hampshire statewide polling averages. Alas, never count out Joe Biden.

Warren emerged over the latter parts of the summer as a national frontrunner, but her moment has passed — she will all but assuredly need a surprise victory in Iowa or New Hampshire to resuscitate her campaign’s fading hopes. Biden’s consistent polling has remained relatively unaffected by the onset of the Ukraine scandal and subsequent impeachment imbroglio — perhaps to the surprise of many pundits who thought he would ultimately have to be dumped by Democrats as a sacrificial lamb of sorts.

At this point, pundits should be hard-pressed to predict anyone other than Biden as the likely Democratic presidential nominee — at least until we get results from Iowa and New Hampshire. But Bernie Sanders, with his rabid base of Soviet Union-nostalgic radicals, has now positioned himself as a very serious contender. The uniquely wealthy Bloomberg is also a candidate to still keep a close eye upon, despite the Democratic National Committee’s recurring outside donation debate criterion that portends to box out the self-funding Bloomberg from the debate stage for the foreseeable future.

Electoral prediction market website PredictIt now has Biden as its frontrunner, although Sanders is in second by a wide margin. After that large gap, Bloomberg, Warren, and Buttigieg then all distantly follow. The Warren campaign collapse from its erstwhile frontrunner perch, with now even Bloomberg leading her in the electoral betting market, is truly something to behold.

The RealClearPolitics polling average for 1/06/20 – 1/16/20 shows Biden with an average national polling lead of 8.0%.

A recent SurveyUSA national poll conducted from 1/14/20 – 1/16/20 showed Biden, at 32%, with an 11-point lead over Sanders. Sanders was up seven points on Warren, and no one else polled in double digits.

A recent Economist/YouGov national poll conducted from 1/11/20 – 1/14/20 showed Biden, at 27%, with a seven-point lead over Sanders. Sanders was up one point on Warren, and no one else polled in double digits.

A recent Hill/HarrisX national poll conducted from 1/13/20 – 1/14/20 showed Biden, at 29%, with a 10-point lead over Sanders. Sanders was up eight points on Warren, and no one else polled in double digits.

A recent Quinnipiac national poll conducted from 1/08/20 – 1/12/20 showed Biden, at 25%, with a six-point lead over Sanders. Sanders was up three points on Warren, and no one else polled in double digits.

A recent Morning Consult national poll conducted from 1/06/20 – 1/12/20 showed Biden, at 29%, with a six-point lead over Sanders. Sanders was up nine points on Warren, and no one else polled in double digits.

Will Biden remain the frontrunner? Can Sanders sustain his early state surge? Stay tuned.

Latest Aggregate Early State-By-State Polling Data

Iowa: Biden 21.0%, Sanders 17.3%, Warren 16.7%, Buttigieg 16.3%, Klobuchar 8.3%

New Hampshire: Sanders 19.8%, Biden 18.5%, Buttigieg 14.3%, Warren 14.3%, Klobuchar 5.8%

Nevada: Biden 25.0%, Sanders 19.3%, Warren 14.7%, Buttigieg 7.7%, Steyer 7.3%

South Carolina: Biden 32.0%, Sanders 15.0%, Warren 14.0%, Steyer 8.3%, Buttigieg 6.3%

This article has been updated to reflect the most recent survey data.

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  11. Pete Buttigieg
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