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Who Will Win The Democratic Primary? The Latest On 2020 Presidential Primary Polling.

By  Josh Hammer
DETROIT, MICHIGAN - JULY 31: Democratic presidential candidates Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO) (L-R), Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY), former housing secretary Julian Castro, Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ), former Vice President Joe Biden, Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) , former tech executive Andrew Yang, Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI), Washington Gov. Jay Inslee, and New York City Mayor Bill De Blasio take the stage at the Democratic Presidential Debate at the Fox Theatre July 31, 2019 in Detroit, Michigan. 20 Democratic presidential candidates were split into two groups of 10 to take part in the debate sponsored by CNN held over two nights at Detroit’s Fox Theatre. (Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images)
Scott Olson/Getty Images

Former Vice President Joe Biden’s once-solid double-digit lead over the rest of the field of 2020 Democratic Party presidential nominees shrunk, over the latter parts of the summer, before dramatically re-expanding over the past two months. Biden currently stands 11.0% above second-place Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) in the average of recent national polling. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg, and former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg round out the top five in most recent national polling. Buttigieg, in particular, has been dramatically surging in the crucial early-voting states of Iowa and New Hampshire.

Biden’s once-formidable lead has faltered over the dog days of summer, but it has since grown back substantially from a recent nadir of less than 1%. Warren generally emerged over the latter parts of the summer as a frontrunner, although her national polling has dropped off considerably over the past couple of months. Biden’s consistent polling has remained relatively unaffected by the Ukraine/impeachment scandal — perhaps to the surprise of many pundits who thought he would ultimately have to be dumped by Democrats as a sacrificial lamb of sorts. Right now, it seems that all the momentum in the race is actually with Buttigieg — with Warren being a remnant of the summer. Bloomberg is also a candidate to keep a close eye upon.

Electoral prediction market website PredictIt now finally has Biden as its frontrunner, after months of showing Warren as the frontrunner. Buttigieg, Warren, and Sanders all follow fairly closely after Biden — with Bloomberg not terribly far behind.

The RealClearPolitics polling average for 11/21/19 – 12/01/19 shows Biden with an average national polling lead of 11.0%.

A recent Hill/HarrisX national poll conducted from 11/30/19 – 12/01/19 showed Biden, at 31%, with a 16-point lead over Sanders. Sanders was up five points on Warren and no one else polled in double digits.

A recent Politico/Morning Consult national poll conducted from 11/25/19 – 12/01/19 showed Biden, at 29%, with a nine-point lead over Sanders. Sanders was up five points on Warren and no one else polled in double digits.

A recent Economist/YouGov national poll conducted from 11/24/19 – 11/26/19 showed Biden, at 23%, with a six-point lead over Warren. Warren was up two points on Sanders, and Sanders was up three points on Buttigieg.

A recent Quinnipiac national poll conducted from 11/21/19 – 11/25/19 showed Biden, at 24%, with an eight-point lead over Buttigieg. Buttigieg was up two points on Warren, and Warren was up one point on Sanders.

A recent CNN national poll conducted from 11/21/19 – 11/24/19 showed Biden, at 28%, with an 11-point lead over Sanders. Sanders was up three points on Warren, and Warren was up three points on Buttigieg.

A recent SurveyUSA national poll conducted from 11/20/19 – 11/21/19 showed Biden at 30%, with a 13-point lead over Sanders. Sanders was up two points on Warren, and Warren was up four points on Buttigieg.

A recent Emerson national poll conducted from 11/17/19 – 11/20/19 showed Biden and Sanders tied at 27% apiece. Warren was seven points behind and no one else polled in double digits.

Will Warren and Biden remain the two frontrunners? Will Buttigieg’s remarkable Iowa surge continue to hold? Stay tuned.

Latest Aggregate Early State-By-State Polling Data

Iowa: Buttigieg 24.0%, Sanders 18.3%, Warren 17.7%, Biden 16.3%, Klobuchar 5.3%

New Hampshire: Buttigieg 20.0%, Sanders 17.0%, Warren 14.3%, Biden 13.7%, Gabbard 5.0%

Nevada: Biden 29.0%, Warren 20.0%, Sanders 19.8%, Buttigieg 7.3%, Harris 4.0%

South Carolina: Biden 35.3%, Warren 16.3%, Sanders 12.8%, Buttigieg 6.5%, Harris 6.3%

This article has been updated to reflect the most recent survey data.

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