President Joe Biden enters 2024 with job approval and poll numbers that bode ill for the incumbent, a political analyst told an MSNBC audience on New Year’s Eve.
National political correspondent Steve Kornacki explained on Sunday, armed with his signature charts, how NBC’s final poll of the year compares with the statistics for other presidents heading into a re-election year.
Biden stood at 40% approval and 57% disapproval in November, which Kornacki said is the “lowest” dating back to President George H.W. Bush, who lost his attempt to secure a second term, and others who won or got defeated in the intervening years.
MSNBC's Steve Kornacki: Biden's approval rating is "the lowest NBC poll for an incumbent facing a re-election year" pic.twitter.com/W8MEDKLO77
— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) December 31, 2023
Moving on to an average of 2024 general election polls, which over course of 2023 has flipped from favoring Biden in a head-to-head rematch against former President Donald Trump by 2 points to giving Trump a plus-two margin over Biden, Kornacki noted that it looks to be a “very close race.”
Kornacki said the “big thing” on his radar is how voters — three out of four of them — have major to moderate concerns about Biden’s age (81) and fitness to continue serving as commander in chief. As for Trump, Kornacki continued, the X factor appears to be rising anxiety about his legal situation, particularly if there is a conviction.
Though Biden and Trump are dominating in their respective parties, at least in the polls, less than a month before the caucuses and primary contests get under way, Kornacki also unpacked some data showing that both candidates came up short behind a “generic” member of their own party in the November poll from NBC News. Though unlike Trump, Biden trailed by double digits.
“Broadly there’s not a big appetite for Trump versus Biden, even though it seems that each party, at least as we enter 2024, is poised to go in that direction,” Kornacki said.
He showed another graphic, this one for a recent poll from The Wall Street Journal, which broadened the scope of a presidential contest beyond just the two major parties amid big names such as Robert Kennedy Jr. and potential Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV).
“They included a bunch of third party options and against Biden and Trump. They added up to 17%. That’s a big question heading into 2024. Is it going to be a real third party candidate to create a wild card in this?”