A leading independent pollster said Saturday that polls might seriously undercount Republican voters in the current political climate.
In a Twitter thread, Trafalgar Group chief pollster Robert C. Cahaly said that President Joe Biden’s recent attacks on so-called “MAGA Republicans” will make polling supporters of former President Donald Trump even harder to poll than in previous years. Cahaly pointed out that in the last two presidential election cycles, name-calling and threats from prominent Democrats contributed to the phenomenon of the “shy Trump voter.” But as the 2022 midterms have begun in earnest, Biden’s escalating rhetoric against Trump supporters, accusing them of embracing “semi-fascism” and being a threat to America, will make these voters even harder to reach in polling.
“In 2016 Trump supporters were called ‘Deplorables’ and other unflattering names,” Cahaly wrote on Twitter. “This was a major contributor to the ‘shy Trump voter’ phenomenon that ‘most’ polling missed which resulted in a major loss in public confidence for polling flowing the election.”
In 2016 Trump supporters were called “Deplorables” and other unflattering names. This was a major contributor to the “shy Trump voter” phenomenon that “most” polling missed which resulted in a major loss in public confidence for polling flowing the election.
— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) September 17, 2022
“In 2020 people who supported Trump or espoused conservative values out of step with ‘Woke’ culture found themselves being ‘canceled’ or ‘doxed,’” Cahaly continued. “This led to ‘hidden voters’ that ‘most’ polling under counted, therefore Trump support in key battleground states exceeded expectations. Now [the] Biden administration has essentially classified ‘MAGA Republicans’ as a threat to democracy marshaling federal law enforcement to focus on them. This move has created a new type of voter that will be even harder to poll or even estimate.”
Now that the Biden administration has essentially classified “MAGA Republicans” as a threat to democracy marshaling federal law enforcement to focus on them. This move has created a new type of voter that will be even harder to poll or even estimate.
— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) September 17, 2022
“I call this new group ‘submerged voters,’” Cahaly went on. “They aren’t putting stickers on their cars, signs in their yards, posting their opinions, or even answering polls. At this point I think it’s fair to say that Biden’s pursuit of and attacks on ‘MAGA Republicans’ has created an army of voters who will be virtually impossible to poll (even for us) and more difficult still to estimate.”
”The 2022 Republican turnout will likely be higher than any of the polls or models are showing,” he concluded. “All polls (including ours) will understate the impact of these ‘submerged voters.’”
voters who will be virtually impossible to poll (even for us) and more difficult still to estimate.
The 2022 Republican turnout will likely be higher than any of the polls or models are showing. All polls (including ours) will understate the impact of these “submerged voters”.
— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) September 17, 2022
Other independent pollsters endorsed Cahaly’s assessment.
“Yes, call them an enemy of the state one month, and next month participation [falls],” Big Data Poll director Richard Baris said in response to Cahaly’s comments. “And those who do claim to be ‘undecided’ across the board.”
“Voter demonization leads to devilish difficulties in surveying,” Rasmussen Reports replied, promoting Cahaly’s thread.
Cahaly’s remarks come after New York Times chief political analyst Nate Cohn warned that mainstream polling is significantly overstating support for Democrats and is headed for yet another serious polling miss.
“[The] warning sign is flashing again: Democratic Senate candidates are outrunning expectations in the same places where the polls overestimated Mr. Biden in 2020 and Mrs. Clinton in 2016,” Cohn wrote.
Cohn pointed to the example of Wisconsin, where institutional polls in 2020 overstated Biden’s support in the state by about 8 points; in 2022, polls are favoring Democratic Senate candidate Mandela Barnes by a similar margin.
“It raises the possibility that the apparent Democratic strength in Wisconsin and elsewhere is a mirage — an artifact of persistent and unaddressed biases in survey research,” Cohn said. “If the polls are wrong yet again, it will not be hard to explain. Most pollsters haven’t made significant methodological changes since the last election.”