Former President Donald Trump has increased his lead in the Real Clear Politics average of national polls against President Joe Biden in recent weeks as Democrats sound alarm bells about Biden’s chances in 2024.
Trump leads Biden 46% to 44.6% in the RCP average as of Wednesday afternoon with the four most recent polls factored in by RCP all giving Trump the edge. The former president’s 1.4-point lead is his highest over Biden since late September when he was ahead by an average of 1.6 points. Trump has either led or been tied with Biden in the RCP average of national polls for nearly two straight months as the president struggles with low approval ratings and multiple global and national crises.
The latest poll from CNN, conducted between October 27 and November 2, puts Trump at 49% to Biden’s 45%. Trump leads Biden 44% to 42% in a Morning Consult poll taken last week, and he’s up 51% to 48%, according to a CBS News poll conducted between October 30 and November 2. A Messenger/Harris X poll conducted last week also has Trump in the driver’s seat 51% to 49%.
A common theme among the surveys was how much weight respondents placed on the economy as the biggest issue going into 2024. According to the CNN poll, 33% of respondents said the economy was the most important issue to them while 12% of respondents said voting rights/election integrity and immigration were the most important issues. The CBS News poll found that only 30% of respondents said the economy was in good condition while 66% said the economy was doing poorly. The same CBS News poll also found that registered voters were more likely to have a positive outlook on their finances under Trump than under Biden.
A New York Times/Siena poll released earlier this week got the attention of some Democrats who expressed worry about how well the former Republican president performed in important battleground states against Biden. In the poll, Trump led Biden in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania.
Sen. Richard Blumenthal said he was “mystified” by Trump’s polling lead in the battleground states after numerous federal- and state-level charges were levied against the former president.
“I have no explanation based on my lifetime in paying attention to American civic life and politics. In most times in our history, one indictment would have been enough to disqualify a presidential candidate for the types of crimes alleged,” Blumenthal said, according to The Hill. “I’m mystified, perplexed, bewildered and, frankly, a bit angry that people can give [Trump] credibility.”
On Biden, the Democrat senator praised the president’s handling of foreign policy issues, but admitted that many people are concerned about the 80-year-old running for a second term.
“I hear immense praise for what he has done and how well he is doing on foreign policy and on extremism at home. He’s doing everything right, is what I’m hearing. And yet there’s this lingering concern about electability,” said Blumenthal.
Blumenthal’s concern was echoed by his fellow Senators Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI), Dick Durbin (D-IL), and John Tester (D-MT) who all said they want to see Biden perform better in the polls, but added that the president still has a year to pick up some momentum. Former Obama adviser and Democratic strategist David Axelrod wasn’t as optimistic about a Biden re-election campaign, however.
“The stakes of miscalculation here are too dramatic to ignore,” Axelrod wrote on X. “If he continues to run, he will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. What he needs to decide is whether that is wise; whether it’s in HIS best interest or the country’s?”