Important Economic Indicator Surprises Experts With Big Surge In May

Consumer confidence, which helps measure economic growth, spiked by more than 12 points in May, far outpacing experts’ predictions as Americans grow optimistic about President Donald Trump’s potential trade deals.

A survey released Tuesday showed the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index standing at 98.0, which was up 12.3 points from April and much higher than the Dow Jones estimate of 86.0. The surge ended five straight months of declines in consumer confidence.

Even before President Trump agreed to a 90-day truce with China on May 12, which significantly reduced tariffs, consumer confidence was already rising, according to Stephanie Guichard, the Conference Board’s senior economist for global indicators.

“The rebound was already visible before the May 12 US-China trade deal but gained momentum afterwards,” Guichard said.

The May spike was celebrated by the White House with Communications Director Steven Cheung, crediting “THE TRUMP EFFECT!”

THE TRUMP EFFECT!

Consumer confidence rose 12.3 points this month to a reading of 98.

That’s higher than economists’ expectations for a reading of 88. https://t.co/yTJndbONkB

— Steven Cheung (@StevenCheung47) May 27, 2025

Along with consumer confidence spiking, the Present Situation Index — which is “based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions” — was up 4.8 points. The Expectations Index, which looks at consumers’ short-term economic outlook, also jumped “17.4 points to 72.8,” but remains under the threshold of 80, which the U.S. Consumer Conference Board said “typically signals a recession ahead.”

“Consumers were less pessimistic about business conditions and job availability over the next six months and regained optimism about future income prospects. Consumers’ assessments of the present situation also improved,” Guichard added. “However, while consumers were more positive about current business conditions than last month, their appraisal of current job availability weakened for the fifth consecutive month.”

The positive consumer confidence report for the U.S. economy comes after inflation hit its lowest point in over four years in April.

Trump announced his first trade deal with the United Kingdom earlier this month and is continuing trade negotiations with China and the European Union. The president said on Sunday that he will delay 50% tariffs on the European Union after a phone call with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

The Trump administration promises that more trade deals are currently in the works with Japan and South Korea, making significant headway.