President Donald Trump says he is in a &#8220;deciding mode&#8221; on Iran, weighing &#8220;wiping Iran out, letting them rot economically or making a deal.&#8221;
Trump explained Sunday that getting Iran to negotiate is difficult when “some of the officials are hiding like rats.” Trump <a href="https://x.com/FoxNews/status/2101672307622101431">told</a> Fox News&#8217; Trey Yingst that “very big things are going to be happening in the not-so-distant future” in Iran. He said, “My question is if and when do I blow the entire nation up? They better behave.&#8221;
President Trump will be attending the UN General Assembly this week and said he would be open to meeting with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, who will also be in attendance. The United States <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/live-updates-iranian-protests-intensify-as-citizens-demand-end-to-ayatollah-rule">approved</a> visas for Iran’s “core delegation” on Thursday. The State Department said the move was “consistent with our host country obligations.” 
The war has continued to escalate in September, with Iran shooting down at least two U.S. MQ-1 drones in recent days. Officials have not said where the aircraft went down or which variant of the MQ-1 was involved. Iran also struck a U.S.-contracted vessel near the Strait of Hormuz this week, according to Yingst&#8217;s sources. One projectile hit the ship, causing minor injuries to those aboard, including &#8220;U.S. personnel.&#8221;
The fighting has also spread to Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, where Iran-backed Houthi forces attacked Riyadh on Saturday. The State Department has urged Americans to reconsider travel to the region amid continuing missile and drone activity, warning that attacks are hitting not only military bases but also cities, airports, infrastructure and energy sites.
Ahead of a Tuesday meeting with Gulf leaders at the UN, Trump told Axios on Thursday, &#8220;I want to find out where they are and how they are doing. We have been very protective of them.&#8221;
Republicans are eager to reach a solution in Iran with the war causing increased prices for crude oil. The rise in energy costs has affected other goods and services, stirring dissatisfaction around affordability shortly before the midterm elections in November. Diesel prices hit an all-time high in September, reaching $6.40 per gallon on <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/diesel-prices-hit-all-time-high?author=Brecca+Stoll&amp;category=News&amp;elementPosition=4&amp;row=0&amp;rowType=Vertical+List&amp;title=Diesel+Prices+Hit+All-Time+High">Thursday</a>. Diesel is up 73% since last year. Trump said the increase in energy costs however were a “very inexpensive price to pay for what we’ve done” referencing his administration&#8217;s efforts to curb Iran’s ability to obtain a nuclear weapon. 
The administration predicts that prices will “come tumbling down” shortly after the midterm elections. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said crude oil could fall as low as $40 per barrel when the war ends. “We’re going to get on the other side of this Iran conflict, and I expect that oil will come down,” Bessent <a href="https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/oil-and-gas/us-treasury-secretary-scott-bessent-sees-crude-oil-as-low-as-40-post-iran-war-lower-bond-yields/133788620">said</a>. “We’re going to be very much oversupplied in the oil market after this.

President Trump Signs Executive Order On American Energy

Trump Warns Iran He May ‘Blow The Entire Nation Up’

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Drivers who typically opt for the driveway oil change to save a few bucks may soon find that the savings aren&#8217;t adding up the way they used to.
Club retailer Costco recently <a href="https://theautowire.com/2026/09/10/costco-synthetic-oil-price-jump-purchase-limit/">increased the price</a> of its generic synthetic motor oil blend — Kirkland Signature full-synthetic blend. The price jumped in recent months, from a little over $30 for a ten-quart case (enough for an oil change on a standard V6 or V8 engine) to $57.99 for the same two five-quart bottles. In addition, Costco is limiting members to one case per transaction and no more than two cases per week.
And it&#8217;s not just the store brand feeling the pinch: a six-quart case of Mobil 1 runs $44, and the retailer has introduced a five-per-member limit on that item as well.
The reasons for the price jump — and the limited stock — stem from a number of factors, not the least of which is the ongoing war between the United States and Iran and the dramatically slowed movement of oil through the Strait of Hormuz. In July, the price per barrel of Brent crude was around $72. Since then, the price has jumped to $109 as of Monday morning.
In addition to the increased prices, stock has also been <a href="https://abcnews.com/Business/wireStory/costco-raises-price-kirkland-motor-oil-sets-purchase-136426075">severely limited</a> as a result of the continued conflict in the region. Synthetic motor oil like the Kirkland blend and Mobil 1 rely on Group III base oils — and the United States typically relies on Middle Eastern sources for about 40% of those oils. Slower movement along that supply chain, caused by the ongoing war, has forced retailers like Costco to limit what customers can buy.
Limited stock has also been impacted by oil companies that have shifted production focus to diesel and gasoline in order to make the most of much higher profit margins and meet the much higher daily demands.
Further complicating matters, a <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/13/oil-price-iran-war-strait-hormuz-saudi-pipeline.html">major pipeline</a> in Saudi Arabia was shut down on Friday after a drone attack. Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, said a pump station had sustained damage in the attack.
&#8220;The longer the shutdown, the higher the price. Judging from the online pictures, it will take months to repair,&#8221; he said.
The pipeline was being used as an alternate route to avoid shipping oil through the Strait of Hormuz, and it remains to be seen whether the pipeline will be able to reopen with a bypass around the damaged pump station.

Costco Wholesale in Folsom California

Costco Just Put A Limit On How Much Shoppers Can Buy Of Popular Item

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Oil is now flowing out of the Persian Gulf at higher levels than before the war with Iran, according to the Trump administration, even as the U.S. and Iran exchanged strikes this week.
Forty commercial vessels carrying roughly 18 million barrels of oil moved through the Strait of Hormuz Tuesday, marking a wartime high, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/02/politics/latest-us-strikes-against-iran-marked-a-shift-in-strategy">CNN reported</a>, citing U.S. officials.
The latest figure follows U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright&#8217;s <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/02/energy-secretary-chris-wright-tells-cnbc-that-more-than-17-million-barrels-of-oil-transited-hormuz-on-monday.html">claim to CNBC</a> that more than 17 million barrels of oil crossed the Strait on Monday. He added that total regional exports have surged above pre-war levels when including oil from pipelines that bypass the strait. 
“With or without Iran, oil and gas will flow out of the Arabian Gulf region,” Wright said.
Before the conflict began on February 28, roughly 20 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum products moved through the Strait each day. That took a nosedive once Iran moved to restrict traffic through the critical waterway, making reopening the Strait a new central objective for the Trump administration. 
American forces have established a shipping corridor along Oman&#8217;s coast for tankers from allied Gulf states, with some vessels making the passage at night and turning off their tracking signals to make them harder to target. Iran has repeatedly threatened commercial shipping in the narrow waterway that carried roughly one-fifth of the world&#8217;s oil shipments before the war. 
The military said last month that it had cleared Iranian sea mines from the Strait. But Trump said Wednesday that Iran had attempted to develop missiles capable of deploying new mines, as he pointed to the U.S. strikes on Iranian military assets aimed at limiting Tehran’s ability to threaten commercial shipping this week.
The administration&#8217;s figures are higher than those from independent trackers. <a href="https://x.com/Kpler/status/2094728791557841128">Kpler</a> recorded just five confirmed crossings through Hormuz on Monday, down by half from the previous day. U.S. officials say the discrepancy comes from tankers moving covertly at night, sometimes with help from the Navy and with their transponders turned off.
The continued flow of oil has not, however, brought prices back to pre-war levels. Crude, which traded at about $70 a barrel before the conflict, has climbed to roughly $90 or more. The average price of gasoline in the United States has risen from about $2.98 a gallon on the eve of the war to roughly $4.14 on Thursday.
The war has also accelerated efforts by Gulf states to find ways to bypass the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint altogether. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said last month that new pipeline capacity could eventually make shipping through Hormuz “irrelevant.”
The United Arab Emirates is moving the fastest. Abu Dhabi is expanding the pipeline connecting its oil fields to the port of Fujairah, on the Gulf of Oman, allowing crude to reach the open sea without using the strait. Kpler estimates the project could raise the UAE&#8217;s bypass capacity from roughly 1.8 million barrels a day to 3.6 million, with the new line expected to begin operating in 2027.
Saudi Arabia is looking at expanding its East-West pipeline, which can already move as much as 7 million barrels a day from the kingdom&#8217;s eastern oil fields to Yanbu on the Red Sea. But increasing exports would require additional capacity at Yanbu&#8217;s terminals, making a major expansion a longer-term project.
The Iraqi government is considering routes that would connect its southern oil fields to Turkey and Syria, potentially giving Iraqi crude another path to Mediterranean markets without relying on Hormuz, though diplomatic disagreements between Turkey and Iraq have slowed efforts.
Still, analysts caution that the new pipelines will not replace the Strait&#8217;s capacity anytime soon, <a href="https://www.npr.org/2026/08/28/g-s1-140309/us-iran-middle-east-oil-pipelines-hormuz">reported Axios</a>. Goldwyn Global Strategies president David Goldwyn has estimated that projects expected to come online over the next several years would add only about 10 million to 12 million barrels a day of bypass capacity, compared with roughly 20 million barrels a day that moved through Hormuz before the war.
“I think that we have to accept that this crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, the constraints on exports are going to be a somewhat permanent feature for the next few years,&#8221; said Goldwyn to Axios.
And pipelines cannot solve the problem for every Gulf energy producer.
Liquefied natural gas, unlike crude oil, cannot simply be sent through oil pipelines. Qatar, one of the world&#8217;s largest LNG exporters, remains heavily exposed to the Strait because its offshore gas reserves are connected to the same giant field Iran calls South Pars.
“There is no bypass pipeline for LNG,” Goldwyn said. Qatar, he added, could therefore remain dependent on Iran for the safe movement of its exports, creating a risk that could eventually reach natural gas markets around the world.
The Strait has become a central focus of Trump’s campaign against Iran. On Wednesday, he took that focus a step further, suggesting on social media that it should be renamed.
“Should we change the name Hormuz Strait to TRUMP STRAIT???” he wrote.

Aerial view oil ship tanker waiting on the sea for load or unload oil from refinery. Business logistics import export shipping or freight transportation.

BACK IN BUSINESS: More Oil Is Coming From The Gulf Than Before Iran War, Trump Admin Touts

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China slashed its oil imports by more than half after the Iran war began, a move analysts say helped prevent global oil prices from climbing even higher despite major supply disruptions.
“China was definitely the most important factor in keeping prices down,” oil markets analyst Rory Johnston <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/economy/2026/07/china-iran-usa-oil-prices/688086/?gift=9raHaW-OKg2bN8oaIFlCou6OgfFJt1HZK-qCD-xfA5g&amp;utm_medium=social&amp;utm_campaign=share&amp;utm_source=chatgpt.com">said</a>. 
China typically imports about 11 million barrels of oil per day, but cut back on roughly 5 million after fighting disrupted Middle East energy markets and shipping routes, leaving more crude available to other buyers.
Analysts estimate oil could have reached $150 to $200 per barrel had China continued buying at its normal pace, rather than remaining around $90. China imports more than 70% of the oil it consumes, making it especially sensitive to price spikes. Instead of buying expensive crude on the open market, Beijing has increasingly relied on its strategic reserves, though analysts question how long that strategy can continue.  
Before the war, China’s Foreign Ministry <a href="https://www.anews.com.tr/world/2025/06/23/china-warns-iran-israel-war-could-impact-global-economy">urged</a> all sides to de-escalate tensions, warning that regional conflict could disrupt global energy markets.
&#8220;The international community [should] make greater efforts to promote de-escalation of the conflict and prevent regional instability from having a greater impact on global economic development,&#8221; foreign ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun said. 
The U.S. government estimates China holds nearly <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67504" target="_blank" rel="noopener">1.4 billion</a> barrels of oil in underground strategic reserves and commercial storage, enough to last between six months and more than a year depending on consumption. 
China employed the opposite strategy during the COVID-19 pandemic, dramatically increasing imports as oil prices collapsed. U.S. crude exports to China jumped <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/crude-oil/012021-china-data-2020-crude-imports-from-us-surge-211-to-396000-bd-valued-at-628-bil">211%</a> in 2020 while benchmark oil briefly traded below zero, allowing Beijing to stockpile cheap supplies. 
“China is doing this for China, fundamentally,&#8221; <a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/07/30/china-oil-price-iran-power?utm_source=newsletter&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&amp;stream=top">said</a> Ruby Osman, a senior policy advisor on China at the Tony Blair Institute. &#8220;But obviously it&#8217;s not unhelpful for China that it has become a global public good.&#8221;

TOPSHOT-VIETNAM-CHINA-DIPLOMACY-POLITICS

China’s Key Role In Your Gas Prices

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Oil prices climbed above $100 a barrel Thursday for the first time since May as markets reacted to a major escalation in the war with Iran. 
Brent crude, the international benchmark, briefly traded above the $100 threshold after Iranian-backed Houthi militants attacked two oil tankers transiting the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea. The attacks heightened concerns about global oil shipments as disruptions continued in the Strait of Hormuz. Together, the two waterways handle roughly 30% of the world&#8217;s oil.
Goldman Sachs <a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-could-surpass-120-per-barrel-if-disruptions-in-strait-of-hormuz-dont-ease-says-goldman-sachs-047f8f88">warned</a> Brent crude could climb as high as $120 per barrel if disruptions continue in both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
President Donald Trump responded Thursday by <a href="https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116969243226176328">warning</a> Iran would face dire consequences if the Houthis continued targeting commercial shipping.
Trump said on social media that if the Houthis “do this again, the U.S. will hold Iran responsible, in that the Houthis are a Surrogate and/or Proxy of Iran, and major military punishment will be inflicted upon Iran and, of course, the Houthis, themselves.” 
Reuters separately <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-flew-irgc-commanders-missile-gear-yemens-houthis-sources-say-2026-07-23/">reported</a> that Iran earlier this month flew military commanders, advisers, gold, and weapons into neighboring Yemen, citing two Iranian sources who said between 10 and 21 Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders were aboard the flight &#8220;to support Houthi operations and provide training on new missile systems.&#8221;
The spike in oil prices also rattled financial markets. The Nasdaq 100 was on <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-23/us-stock-futures-drop-as-traders-focus-on-ai-spending-oil-jumps">pace</a> for its worst day in a month, while the Nasdaq Composite fell <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/live/stock-market-today-thursday-july-23-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-oil-bonds-earnings-084444369.html">2.6%</a>, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.1%, and the S&amp;P 500 lost 1.4%. 
The selloff came despite otherwise encouraging economic news, with initial jobless claims <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/us-weekly-jobless-claims-fall-123957463.html">falling</a> to their lowest level since 1969. 
A sustained rise in crude prices could also complicate the fight against inflation by increasing fuel and transportation costs throughout the economy.
Despite Thursday&#8217;s surge, Goldman Sachs maintained its forecast for Brent crude to average about $80 per barrel in the fourth quarter, citing stronger-than-expected production and weaker demand from China, South Korea, and the Middle East.

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Oil Prices Surge Back Across Dire Milestone After Houthis Enter Iran War

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During the summer of 2018, President Donald Trump predicted the future. During the G7 in Quebec <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/10/world/trump-merkel-photo-g7-summit.html">in June</a> and the NATO summit in Brussels <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jun/27/donald-trump-nato-europe-ally">in July</a>, Trump warned world leaders their green energy policies and reliance on Russian oil and gas were weakening their economies while strengthening Russia’s — undermining NATO’s purpose.
The President said America would not come to the rescue.
Energy was at the very heart of his words then, and his administration’s actions now. It was at the heart of his ousting of a brutal dictator from Venezuela, home to the world’s largest crude oil reserves.  Energy was at the heart of his decision to remove the U.S. from the Obama-era Paris Climate Agreement and the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. Energy is at the heart of the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) signed between the United States and Iran.
Energy runs the world, and Trump wants to run the world’s energy.
For decades, Iran sold oil on the black market, providing hostile nations like China and North Korea with discounted vital fuel.  <a href="https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20240507-over-1bn-of-iran-fuel-smuggled-into-pakistan-every-year-report-reveals/">By land</a>, Iran, via its massive, uncontrolled borders, allowed rogue operators to get their hands on oil and petrodollars: Houthis rebels, terrorists in Afghanistan, Syria, Pakistan, and Turkey. These actions have enriched Iran and destabilized the world by financing terrorism and unrest.
By forcing Iran to sell its oil on the legitimate global market, the MOU accomplishes economic and national security objectives. First, adding global supply will bring prices down. From a national security perspective, the U.S. can monitor sales, thus monitor economies and activities.
For example, our naval blockade and control of the Straits of Hormuz provided the information that China <a href="https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Chinas-Refinery-Runs-Hit-Four-Year-Low-as-Crude-Imports-Collapse.html">had cut oil imports</a> by over four million barrels per day.
Since China cannot be trusted to provide accurate information, this number would not have been known otherwise. Any additional knowledge on China’s energy economy benefits our national security readiness.
Because of President Trump’s ouster of Nicolas Maduro and the American companies now operating in the region, Venezuela oil production is <a href="https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Venezuelas-Oil-Exports-Hit-Seven-Year-High-as-Global-Buyers-Return.html">increasing around 5%</a> per month. Those companies benefit, U.S. refineries benefit, and because of their participation in the global oil market, oil is not going to Cuba or China via ghost tankers. Those petrodollars, now under the purview of the U.S. Treasury, return legitimately to the government and people of Venezuela — not drug cartels, not Tren de Aragua gangsters, not Haitian warlords.
Control the oil, control the world. The past criticisms of the U.S. as global peacekeepers is based on ex post facto illegitimacy: bad guys have oil, sell it and make money, acquire arms and weapons, and then America comes to the rescue.
No one wants a return of American military foreign intervention where our servicemembers are fighting bad actors fueled by illicit oil revenue. America will not act as “world police” if the bad guys do not get rich and powerful on the front end.
Which takes us back to the summer of 2018. Many world leaders found it easier to laugh at President Trump’s comments about failed green energy projects. After all, he was just a reality show TV star and casino builder who barely won an election, while they were seasoned statesmen who had already outlasted Silvio Berlusconi, the Italian billionaire Prime Minister who tried and failed at populism over three terms.
As the foreign elites rolled their eyes, Russia got richer and more powerful, before invading Ukraine during the weakness of the Biden administration. Right on queue, those same European leaders begged the U.S. to come to the rescue.
Meanwhile, energy poverty moved their individual economies into stagnation. <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/germany-news-recession-looms-as-iran-war-chokes-growth/live-77487978">Germany</a> suffered several quarters of outright economic contraction and is now relieved to only be in a recession. The <a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/electricity-price">United Kingdom</a> has the highest electricity prices in the developed world. <a href="https://www.globalpetrolprices.com/France/gasoline_prices/">France</a> pays the equivalent of $8.55 a gallon for gas.
All of this was foreseen. All was preventable through a serious energy policy that strengthens us and our allies and prevents our adversaries from becoming powerful and dangerous. American energy dominance sets the agenda for prosperity at home, with no more Maduros and Ayatollahs selling oil in secret to those who seek our destruction. No more Hamas having the funds to orchestrate the October 7th attacks. No more Putins invading Ukraine.
Let those who cry “no blood for oil” rest well knowing control of the oil sets the stage for lasting global peace powered by American energy dominance.
***
Daniel Turner is the founder and executive director of Power The Future, a national nonprofit organization that advocates for American energy jobs. He also runs a sheep and cattle farm in rural Virginia.  Contact him at <a href="mailto:daniel@powerthefuture.com">daniel@powerthefuture.com</a> and follow him on Twitter @DanielTurnerPTF