As the 2020 Democratic Party presidential candidates battle it out for the nomination, politicos must pay close attention to President Donald Trump’s approval ratings — both nationally and across key swing states.
If anything, Trump’s approval rating has recently been on the affirmative rise, as evidence continues to mount that Democrats have overplayed their hand on impeachment. Last week, the historically reliable pollsters at Gallup released data revealing Trump’s approval rating to be at an all-time personal best of 49%. “In addition to possibly reflecting sentiment regarding his impeachment, Trump’s increased approval rating may also result from other issues,” Gallup wrote. Those issues include the recent military skirmishes with Iran, foreign trade, and the economy.
Historically, presidents have fared well in re-election campaigns when they maintain approval ratings above 50%. This president has never had such an approval rating at any point throughout his presidency; but Trump is also a unique figure, in many ways, from the perspective of American political history. He defies many historical norms and loose “rules.” President Trump also oversees a genuinely soaring economy, with record-low unemployment rates, and regarding which Americans are the most optimistic they have been in decades. One must also never forget the sheer power of incumbency: Since FDR, only Presidents Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush were elected and then subsequently not re-elected four years later.
As of February 11, 2020, the RealClearPolitics average for Trump’s national job approval rating sits at 45.1% — or 7.0% underwater. That Trump’s approval rating only rose while warding off impeachment only buttresses the theory that Democrats have overplayed their hand.
Henry Olsen of The Washington Post had an incisive piece in November that analyzed the relationship between Trump’s approval ratings and his re-election chances. According to Olsen’s historically informed analysis, Trump would need his approval rating to rise to roughly 46% – 47% in order to confidently position himself to capture the Electoral College next November. That is well within the realm of possibility, given Trump’s current polling, although it will require the president to focus on reaching out to persuadable moderates, independents, and suburban swing voters. To that end, I have previously offered some unsolicited advice to the Trump campaign: Focus on a safety and security agenda to appeal to these persuadable voters.
The Daily Wire will also be tracking Trump’s state-by-state approval rating as the general election nears. Here is the latest Trump approval rating information from across all the various swing states.
Battleground State-By-State Trump Approval Rating (latest data via Morning Consult’s January 2020 monthly survey)
ARIZONA:
- 2016 presidential result: Trump + 3.57%
- Governor: Republican
- U.S. Senate: Republican, Democrat
- Current Trump approval rating: -1%
COLORADO:
- 2016 presidential result: Clinton + 4.91%
- Governor: Democrat
- U.S. Senate: Republican, Democrat
- Current Trump approval rating: -10%
FLORIDA:
- 2016 presidential result: Trump + 1.20%
- Governor: Republican
- U.S. Senate: Republican, Republican
- Current Trump approval rating: -1%
GEORGIA:
- 2016 presidential result: Trump + 5.09%
- Governor: Republican
- U.S. Senate: Republican, Republican
- Current Trump approval rating: EVEN
IOWA:
- 2016 presidential result: Trump + 9.41%
- Governor: Republican
- U.S. Senate: Republican, Republican
- Current Trump approval rating: -9%
MAINE:
- 2016 presidential result: Clinton + 2.96%
- Governor: Democrat
- U.S. Senate: Republican, Independent
- Current Trump approval rating: -7%
MICHIGAN:
- 2016 presidential result: Trump + 0.23%
- Governor: Democrat
- U.S. Senate: Democrat, Democrat
- Current Trump approval rating: -12%
MINNESOTA:
- 2016 presidential result: Clinton + 1.51%
- Governor: Democrat
- U.S. Senate: Democrat, Democrat
- Current Trump approval rating: -7%
NEVADA:
- 2016 presidential result: Clinton + 2.42%
- Governor: Democrat
- U.S. Senate: Democrat, Democrat
- Current Trump approval rating: -15%
NEW HAMPSHIRE:
- 2016 presidential result: Clinton + 0.37%
- Governor: Democrat
- U.S. Senate: Democrat, Democrat
- Current Trump approval rating: -12%
NORTH CAROLINA:
- 2016 presidential result: Trump + 3.66%
- Governor: Democrat
- U.S. Senate: Republican, Republican
- Current Trump approval rating: -1%
OHIO:
- 2016 presidential result: Trump + 8.13%
- Governor: Republican
- U.S. Senate: Republican, Democrat
- Current Trump approval rating: -1%
PENNSYLVANIA:
- 2016 presidential result: Trump + 0.72%
- Governor: Democrat
- U.S. Senate: Republican, Democrat
- Current Trump approval rating: -2%
TEXAS:
- 2016 presidential result: Trump + 8.99%
- Governor: Republican
- U.S. Senate: Republican, Republican
- Current Trump approval rating: +5%
VIRGINIA:
- 2016 presidential result: Clinton + 5.32%
- Governor: Democrat
- U.S. Senate: Democrat, Democrat
- Current Trump approval rating: -4%
WISCONSIN:
- 2016 presidential result: Trump + 0.77%
- Governor: Democrat
- U.S. Senate: Republican, Democrat
- Current Trump approval rating: -10%
This article has been updated to reflect the most recent survey data.