Will Trump Win? The Latest On Trump’s National And State-By-State Approval Ratings. | The Daily Wire
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Will Trump Win? The Latest On Trump’s National And State-By-State Approval Ratings.

By  Josh Hammer
DailyWire.com
LEXINGTON, KY - NOVEMBER 04: U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally at the Rupp Arena on November 4, 2019 in Lexington, Kentucky. The president was visiting Kentucky the day before Election Day in support of Republican Gov. Matt Bevin.
Bryan Woolston/Getty Images

As the 2020 Democratic Party presidential candidates battle it out for the nomination, politicos must also pay close attention to President Donald Trump’s approval rating across the 50 states. While Trump’s national approval rating has been hovering below 50% for his entire presidency, it was on the upswing for the beginning of the summer before faltering a bit toward the end of July. The president’s approval rating recovered a bit in September before falling again as news of the Ukraine phone call incident rattled national headlines. Since the onset of the Ukraine scandal, it has more or less stabilized.

Historically, presidents have fared well in re-election campaigns when they maintain approval ratings above 50%. This president, to be sure, has never had such an approval rating at any point throughout his presidency. But President Trump oversees a soaring economy, with record-low unemployment rates, and has a hardened base of core supporters. One must also never forget the sheer power of incumbency: Since FDR, only Presidents Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush were elected and then subsequently not re-elected four years later.

Yet, fair-minded observers must still ask: If Trump’s overall approval rating number stays below 50%, will Trump be able to defy historical trends for presidential incumbents?

As of November 12, 2019, the RealClearPolitics average for Trump’s national job approval rating sits at 43.7% — or 10.7% underwater.

Overall, national head-to-head polls also do not presently show Trump to be in particularly good electoral shape. Specifically, one of the most accurate pollsters from the 2016 national election, IBD/TIPP, showed fairly recently that Trump was losing hypothetical head-to-head matchups with each of Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, and Kamala Harris. While still early and despite the fact Trump does lead in some hypothetical matchups, the Trump campaign should still be taking very seriously this hypothetical head-to-head matchup polling. I have previously offered some unsolicited advice to the Trump campaign: Focus on a safety and security agenda to appeal to persuadable moderate, independent, and suburban swing voters.

The Daily Wire will also be tracking Trump’s state-by-state approval rating as the general election nears. Here is the latest Trump approval rating information from across all the various swing states.

Battleground State-By-State Trump Approval Rating (latest data via Morning Consult’s October 2019 monthly survey)

ARIZONA:

  • 2016 presidential result: Trump + 3.57%
  • Governor: Republican
  • U.S. Senate: Republican, Democrat
  • Current Trump approval rating: -4%

COLORADO:

  • 2016 presidential result: Clinton + 4.91%
  • Governor: Democrat
  • U.S. Senate: Republican, Democrat
  • Current Trump approval rating: -18%

FLORIDA:

  • 2016 presidential result: Trump + 1.20%
  • Governor: Republican
  • U.S. Senate: Republican, Republican
  • Current Trump approval rating: -2%

GEORGIA:

  • 2016 presidential result: Trump + 5.09%
  • Governor: Republican
  • U.S. Senate: Republican, Republican
  • Current Trump approval rating: -3%

IOWA:

  • 2016 presidential result: Trump + 9.41%
  • Governor: Republican
  • U.S. Senate: Republican, Republican
  • Current Trump approval rating: -12%

MICHIGAN:

  • 2016 presidential result: Trump + 0.23%
  • Governor: Democrat
  • U.S. Senate: Democrat, Democrat
  • Current Trump approval rating: -13%

MINNESOTA:

  • 2016 presidential result: Clinton + 1.51%
  • Governor: Democrat
  • U.S. Senate: Democrat, Democrat
  • Current Trump approval rating: -14%

NEVADA:

  • 2016 presidential result: Clinton + 2.42%
  • Governor: Democrat
  • U.S. Senate: Democrat, Democrat
  • Current Trump approval rating: -14%

NEW HAMPSHIRE:

  • 2016 presidential result: Clinton + 0.37%
  • Governor: Democrat
  • U.S. Senate: Democrat, Democrat
  • Current Trump approval rating: -20%

NORTH CAROLINA:

  • 2016 presidential result: Trump + 3.66%
  • Governor: Democrat
  • U.S. Senate: Republican, Republican
  • Current Trump approval rating: -3%

OHIO:

  • 2016 presidential result: Trump + 8.13%
  • Governor: Republican
  • U.S. Senate: Republican, Democrat
  • Current Trump approval rating: -6%

PENNSYLVANIA:

  • 2016 presidential result: Trump + 0.72%
  • Governor: Democrat
  • U.S. Senate: Republican, Democrat
  • Current Trump approval rating: -9%

TEXAS:

  • 2016 presidential result: Trump + 8.99%
  • Governor: Republican
  • U.S. Senate: Republican, Republican
  • Current Trump approval rating: +2%

VIRGINIA:

  • 2016 presidential result: Clinton + 5.32%
  • Governor: Democrat
  • U.S. Senate: Democrat, Democrat
  • Current Trump approval rating: -7%

WISCONSIN:

  • 2016 presidential result: Trump + 0.77%
  • Governor: Democrat
  • U.S. Senate: Republican, Democrat
  • Current Trump approval rating: -17%

This article has been updated to reflect the most recent survey data.

Read more in:
  1. 2020 Election
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  3. Donald Trump
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  7. Republican Party
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