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Will Trump Win? The Latest On Trump’s National And State-By-State Approval Ratings.

By  Josh Hammer
DailyWire.com
LEXINGTON, KY - NOVEMBER 04: U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally at the Rupp Arena on November 4, 2019 in Lexington, Kentucky. The president was visiting Kentucky the day before Election Day in support of Republican Gov. Matt Bevin.
Bryan Woolston/Getty Images

As the 2020 Democratic Party presidential candidates battle it out for the nomination, politicos must also pay close attention to President Donald Trump’s approval rating across the 50 states. While Trump’s national approval rating has been hovering below 50% for his entire presidency, it was on the upswing for the beginning of the summer before faltering a bit toward the end of July. The president’s approval rating recovered a bit in September before falling again as news of the Ukraine phone call incident rattled national headlines. Since the onset of congressional Democrats’ partisan impeachment efforts, it has more or less stabilized in the mid-40s. If anything, Trump’s approval rating has recently been on the affirmative rise, as evidence continues to mount that Democrats have overplayed their hand on impeachment.

Historically, presidents have fared well in re-election campaigns when they maintain approval ratings above 50%. This president, to be sure, has never had such an approval rating at any point throughout his presidency. But President Trump oversees a soaring economy, with record-low unemployment rates, and has a hardened base of core supporters. One must also never forget the sheer power of incumbency: Since FDR, only Presidents Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush were elected and then subsequently not re-elected four years later.

As of January 21, 2020, the RealClearPolitics average for Trump’s national job approval rating sits at 44.0% — or 8.6% underwater. To be sure, many still have hardened views — in both directions — about the president, but there is still a core nucleus of moderate, independent, largely suburban swing voters who will help determine the outcome of the 2020 presidential election.

Henry Olsen of The Washington Post had an incisive piece in November that analyzed the relationship between Trump’s approval ratings and his re-election chances. According to Olsen’s historically informed analysis, Trump would need his approval rating to rise to roughly 46% – 47% in order to confidently position himself to capture the Electoral College next November. That ought not to be too difficult, given Trump’s current polling, although it will require the president to truly focus on reaching out to persuadable moderates, independents, and suburban swing voters. To that end, I have previously offered some unsolicited advice to the Trump campaign: Focus on a safety and security agenda to appeal to these persuadable voters.

The Daily Wire will also be tracking Trump’s state-by-state approval rating as the general election nears. Here is the latest Trump approval rating information from across all the various swing states.

Battleground State-By-State Trump Approval Rating (latest data via Morning Consult’s December 2019 monthly survey)

ARIZONA:

  • 2016 presidential result: Trump + 3.57%
  • Governor: Republican
  • U.S. Senate: Republican, Democrat
  • Current Trump approval rating: -3%

COLORADO:

  • 2016 presidential result: Clinton + 4.91%
  • Governor: Democrat
  • U.S. Senate: Republican, Democrat
  • Current Trump approval rating: -18%

FLORIDA:

  • 2016 presidential result: Trump + 1.20%
  • Governor: Republican
  • U.S. Senate: Republican, Republican
  • Current Trump approval rating: EVEN

GEORGIA:

  • 2016 presidential result: Trump + 5.09%
  • Governor: Republican
  • U.S. Senate: Republican, Republican
  • Current Trump approval rating: -2%

IOWA:

  • 2016 presidential result: Trump + 9.41%
  • Governor: Republican
  • U.S. Senate: Republican, Republican
  • Current Trump approval rating: -9%

MICHIGAN:

  • 2016 presidential result: Trump + 0.23%
  • Governor: Democrat
  • U.S. Senate: Democrat, Democrat
  • Current Trump approval rating: -15%

MINNESOTA:

  • 2016 presidential result: Clinton + 1.51%
  • Governor: Democrat
  • U.S. Senate: Democrat, Democrat
  • Current Trump approval rating: -10%

NEVADA:

  • 2016 presidential result: Clinton + 2.42%
  • Governor: Democrat
  • U.S. Senate: Democrat, Democrat
  • Current Trump approval rating: -12%

NEW HAMPSHIRE:

  • 2016 presidential result: Clinton + 0.37%
  • Governor: Democrat
  • U.S. Senate: Democrat, Democrat
  • Current Trump approval rating: -19%

NORTH CAROLINA:

  • 2016 presidential result: Trump + 3.66%
  • Governor: Democrat
  • U.S. Senate: Republican, Republican
  • Current Trump approval rating: EVEN

OHIO:

  • 2016 presidential result: Trump + 8.13%
  • Governor: Republican
  • U.S. Senate: Republican, Democrat
  • Current Trump approval rating: -3%

PENNSYLVANIA:

  • 2016 presidential result: Trump + 0.72%
  • Governor: Democrat
  • U.S. Senate: Republican, Democrat
  • Current Trump approval rating: -6%

TEXAS:

  • 2016 presidential result: Trump + 8.99%
  • Governor: Republican
  • U.S. Senate: Republican, Republican
  • Current Trump approval rating: +1%

VIRGINIA:

  • 2016 presidential result: Clinton + 5.32%
  • Governor: Democrat
  • U.S. Senate: Democrat, Democrat
  • Current Trump approval rating: -5%

WISCONSIN:

  • 2016 presidential result: Trump + 0.77%
  • Governor: Democrat
  • U.S. Senate: Republican, Democrat
  • Current Trump approval rating: -10%

This article has been updated to reflect the most recent survey data.

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