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Who Will Win The Democratic Primary? The Latest On 2020 Presidential Primary Polling.

Democratic presidential candidates.
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Former Vice President Joe Biden's formerly very solid double-digit lead over the rest of the field of 2020 Democratic Party presidential nominees has dramatically shrunk, in recent weeks, to high single digits. Biden currently stands 8.7% above second-place Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) in the average of recent national polling. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA), and South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg round out the top five in most recent national polling. Increasingly, the field appears to be shaping up as a three-horse race among Biden, Warren, and Sanders.

 

Biden's formidable lead has substantially narrowed since its high watermark in May, as the senior statesman frequently commits gaffes on the campaign trail and oftentimes comes across as simply being too old to assume the mantle of commander-in-chief. From a purely numerical/statistical perspective, Biden remains the front-runner. Warren, however, has been dramatically surging of late — at the expense of both Biden and Sanders alike. Warren and Sanders seem to be competing for a very similar voting demographic, and it is interesting to ponder the possibility of how one candidate would likely be substantially elevated were the other to drop out and endorse the other. Harris, who had a prominent bump after a much-ballyhooed performance during the first Democratic Party presidential debates, has since declined markedly and now sits in mid-single digits.

Interestingly, electoral prediction market website PredictIt currently pegs Warren as the clear favorite to win the presidential nomination over Biden — with Sanders, political novice Andrew Yang, Harris, and Buttigieg following next. This suggests that many bettors simply do not believe the polls and are willing to wager that Biden will fade in due time. It is likely that many of these bettors are skittish about Biden's age and perceived substantive centrism — with the latter especially worrisome among a Democratic Party base that is increasingly brazen and unabashed in its promotion of ardent, full-spectrum leftism.

Nonetheless, the RealClearPolitics polling average for 9/05/19 – 9/16/19 shows Biden with an average national polling lead of 8.7%.

A recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal national poll conducted from 9/13/19 – 9/16/19 showed Biden, at 31%, with a six-point lead over Warren. Warren was up 11 points on Sanders and no one else polled in double digits.

A recent Politico/Morning Consult national poll conducted from 9/13/19 – 9/15/19 showed Biden, at 32%, with a 12-point lead over Sanders. Sanders was up two points on Warren and no one else polled in double digits.

A recent Reuters/Ipsos national poll conducted from 9/09/19 – 9/10/19 showed Biden, at 22%, with a six-point lead over Sanders. Sanders was up five points on Warren and no one else polled in double digits.

A recent Economist/YouGov national poll conducted from 9/08/19 – 9/10/19 showed Biden and Warren, each at 26%, tied atop the field. The duo held a 10-point lead over Sanders and no one else polled in double digits.

A recent Hill/HarrisX national poll conducted from 9/07/19 – 9/08/19 showed Biden, at 27%, with a 12-point lead over Sanders. Sanders was up three points on Warren and no one else polled in double digits.

 

A recent CNN national poll conducted from 9/05/19 – 9/09/19 showed Biden, at 24%, with a six-point lead over Warren. Warren was up one point on Sanders and no one else polled in double digits.

Can Biden hold on, despite his shrinking lead? Will the Warren surge continue? Will Harris or Buttigieg or Yang catch more traction? Is Harris doomed? Stay tuned.

Latest Aggregate Early State-By-State Polling Data

Iowa: Biden 28.5%, Warren 18.0%, Sanders 17.5%, Harris 8.5%, Buttigieg 7.5%

New Hampshire: Biden 23.7%, Sanders 22.3%, Warren 21.7%, Buttigieg 8.0%, Harris 7.0%

 

Nevada: Biden 27.0%, Sanders 20.7%, Warren 15.0%, Harris 8.7%, Buttigieg 5.0%

South Carolina: Biden 39.3%, Sanders 14.7%, Warren 13.3%, Harris 10.3%, Buttigieg 4.7%

This article has been updated to reflect the most recent survey data.

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