What Do The Numbers Say About Who Won The Debate?

The general consensus across the political spectrum on the debate between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton was that Clinton won the debate.

Whether it was focus groups, conservative news outlets, conservative pundits, or markets, the most positive opinion of Trump’s performance was that he did well in the first half-hour, but soured after that, triggered by questions about his lack of transparency over his finances.

CBS News pollster Frank Luntz conducted a poll of 22 Pennsylvania voters after the debate; 16 said they thought Clinton had won; only six voted for Trump. One voter said, “I felt a little better… I think she (Clinton) did come through as being comfortable and presidential.”

Another offered, “He went off message. Recently he has been very good with his speeches, and his appearances, where he has stayed on message…tonight he went back to attack.” A third commented, “He was completely offensive. He lost me on the racial unity. And that’s where I draw the line.”

Market Watch reported that the Mexican peso rose after the debate, indicating a Clinton victory, as Trump has slammed free trade agreements that benefit the peso. Bloomberg reported that according to PredictWise, Clinton’s chances of winning the election rose from 69% before the debate to 73 percent afterward. Bloomberg added, “Clinton’s odds of winning several battleground states also improved over a comparable four-hour period: by nine points in North Carolina, four points in New Hampshire, and three points each in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Colorado.”

Two left-leaning polls favored Clinton: CNN found Clinton leading 62%-27%; PPP found her winning 51%-40%.

But that sentiment was reflected among conservatives, too; right-leaning Fox News titled two headlines thus: “Hillary won the first debate,” and “Trump struggles, Hillary clings to facts and figures.”

“Clinton bested Trump in the first presidential debate according to a variety of metrics, and the odds are that she’ll gain in head-to-head polls over Trump in the coming days.”

Nate Silver

Trump-supporting pundits agreed: John Nolte: “Trump blew a number of opportunities. Too defensive. Explained too much. Should’ve ignored bait. Hit her on Benghazi, server, etc.” Daniel Braban: “Trump lost badly. We have to be honest.” Bill Mitchell: “It’s not who wins the debate… it’s who wins the week after the debate.”

As Nate Silver summed up:

Clinton bested Trump in the first presidential debate according to a variety of metrics, and the odds are that she’ll gain in head-to-head polls over Trump in the coming days. Start with a CNN poll of debate-watchers, which showed that 62 percent of voters thought Clinton won the debate compared to 27 percent for Trump — a 35-point margin. That’s the third-widest margin ever in a CNN or Gallup post-debate poll, which date back to 1984 … the CNN survey also historically correlates fairly well with movement in the post-election polls.