If you’re a football fan, sorry, it’s Tuesday, and there’s no football.
But if you’re a fan of politics, you’re in luck — the 118th Congress opens today, and finally, Republicans will pick a speaker of the House.
Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), 57, served as the top Republican in the 117th Congress and should, by right, waltz right into the speakership. But since the midterm elections, two factions in the GOP have formed: “Only Kevin” and “Never Kevin.”
McCarthy will need 218 votes to wield the gavel, but there will be only 222 Republicans in the chamber, meaning he can lose just four GOP votes. Over the last few weeks, some Republicans have gone public with their opposition, which is highly unusual.
Five GOP lawmakers have already announced that they won’t vote for McCarthy. Rep. Bob Good (R-VA) — who ran unsuccessfully against McCarthy for the speaker nomination last month — claims there are upwards of 20 members in the Never Kevin movement.
Should the five follow through and vote against McCarthy, the whole process will be thrown into turmoil.
Then there’s the Only Kevin group, which is much larger.
Dozens of GOP lawmakers, including Trump loyalists and moderates, say they will vote only for McCarthy, even if the vote goes multiple rounds. If that happens, it would “basically ensure no other Republican comes close to the gavel,” the Daily Beast reported last week.
“The people that are supportive of Kevin, which are far more numerous than his critics, are dug in at least as deep as his critics are,” Rep. Tom Cole (R-OK), a supporter of McCarthy, told the Beast.
“The pressure won’t be on them. It’s gonna be on the people that brought down the whole edifice — for what? For what purpose? What end?”
Should McCarthy falter and fail to win the speakership, here are four possible candidates who might be able to win the gavel.
Rep. Steve Scalise, 57
CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images
If McCarthy can’t win enough votes, Republicans might turn to the GOP’s No. 2 leader in the House, Rep. Steve Scalise (R-LA).
Politico reported last month that a group of lawmakers has quietly approached Scalise about running for speaker if McCarthy comes up short. “Steve, just be ready,” one member currently backing McCarthy told the liberal political website.
Late last month, after it was clear Republicans had taken control of the House, Scalise ran unopposed for majority leader and won easily. The member said he “could be a good consensus leader if things don’t go well for Kevin.”
The situation is dicey. Scalise hasn’t openly run for the position because it’s dangerous to announce a challenge to the powerful McCarthy. If a lawmaker tries and fails, that member could well be punished for such temerity.
“If somebody were to come out now and we didn’t deliver enough votes to stop Mr. McCarthy, that there would be a real potential for blowback,” Rep. Andy Biggs (R-AZ) recently told The Hill. “They want to be very careful. So I think I think people are interested. They’ve expressed it to some of us … I think people are being wary.”
Rep. Jim Jordan, 58
Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call/Pool
Amid the turmoil, a new name emerged late last month as a possible consensus candidate: Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH).
Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL), one of the five lawmakers who oppose McCarthy, is urging Jordan to step in and seek the leadership post.
“All I want for Christmas is @Jim_Jordan to realize he should be Speaker of the House!” Gaetz tweeted on Christmas Eve. On Christmas Day, he doubled down with another tweet: “Merry Christmas to all! Make sure to join me in encouraging @Jim_Jordan to seek the Speakership :).”
Gaetz has been vocal in his opposition to the California congressman, writing in a Daily Caller piece last week that McCarthy “does not actually believe anything. He has no ideology.”
“The McCarthy camp is spinning that Kevin must be accepted because ‘we have to avoid chaos.’ Chaos for who exactly? The special interests that are counting on McCarthy as their lapdog?” Gaetz wrote. “I’m worried about chaos in the lives of my constituents.”
Jordan has been a high-profile Republican for his last few terms, often enraging the mainstream media with his fiery rhetoric. Jordan would sate the more conservative members, but it’s unclear if moderates would support him.
Rep. Patrick McHenry, 47
Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call
Rep. McHenry (R-OH) first won a seat in Congress in 2005 at just 29 years old. At first a strong conservative, he eventually became chief deputy whip to then-Speaker John A. Boehner of Ohio, who was seen as a moderate throughout his run.
The New York Times reported McHenry “pointedly took a lower-profile, behind-the-scenes approach to the job. And he developed a reputation among other lawmakers for his braininess and interest in tax and financial policy.”
“What changed for me was once I slowed down enough to respect the process and to respect the people that I served within the institution,” McHenry once told a local newspaper, “I was able to get more done when I slowed down and had respect for others.”
McHenry has served as an informal adviser to McCarthy for years and has been demure when asked if he has higher ambitions. And he is unlike the previous two candidates: McHenry voted to certify the 2020 presidential election.
But McHenry is a dark horse. GOP leaders have signaled he’s their pick to lead House Financial Services, which oversees banking, financial markets, housing, and monetary policy.
Rep. Elise Stefanik, 38
Mark Wilson/Getty Images
Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) also joined Congress at an early age, becoming the youngest woman ever elected when she won her seat in 2014.
At first, she was a moderate who willingly worked with Democrats. Always a pragmatist, Stefanik was not an early backer of former President Donald Trump, going so far as to refuse to say his name in 2016 as she offered a weak endorsement of the then-nominee, the Times reported.
“But she has undergone a profound political metamorphosis,” the Times wrote. Stefanik has vehemently defended Trump and rose to become the No. 3 House Republican in 2021 when the GOP leadership ousted Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY).
An analysis by FiveThirtyEight in early 2017 found that Stefanik supported Trump’s position in 77.7% of House votes from the 115th to the 117th Congress. She also became a fierce defender of Trump throughout his impeachment hearings.
And after the 2020 election, Stefanik claimed “more than 140,000 votes came from underage, deceased, and otherwise unauthorized voters” in Fulton County, Georgia. That charge was never proven.
So we don’t know who will wield the gavel, but we do know it’s all about to get very messy.
The views expressed in this piece are the author’s own and do not necessarily represent those of The Daily Wire.
Joseph Curl has covered politics for 35 years, including 12 years as White House correspondent for a national newspaper. He was also the a.m. editor of the Drudge Report for four years. Send tips to [email protected] and follow him on Twitter @josephcurl.