In the crucial early states of Iowa and New Hampshire, a new survey found that while former President Trump holds a solid lead in both states among Republican voters, a vast majority of those voters are not committed to supporting him.
In Iowa, where the presidential caucuses start the primary process, a new CBS News/YouGov survey conducted between September 15-24 found only 20% of voters saying that they were committed to voting for Trump, while 48% are considering both Trump and other candidates, and 31% declared they will not vote for Trump.
Though a majority of respondents said they were potentially open to a candidate other than Trump, the poll also found that the former president currently holds a solid lead in the state (51%). The poll found that Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (21%) is running second, while former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley (8%) is running third.
In New Hampshire, 23% of voters said that they are committed to Trump, while 43% are considering both Trump and other candidates, and 31% declared they will not vote for Trump. As in Iowa, Trump leads the race (50%), while DeSantis (13%) is running second, and Haley (11%) is running third.
The poll also found 62% of Republicans in Iowa and 53% of GOP voters in New Hampshire said the GOP presidential debates were a “major factor” in their decision as to which candidate to back.
“Voters considering choices other than Trump say they are doing so to keep their options open,” CBS News reported. “They also show concern about Trump’s controversies and legal fights, and think the party should consider someone new.”
Polls show Trump with a commanding lead over his rivals, but history shows that 13 months before the presidential election may well be too early to draw a definitive conclusion of who the ultimate candidate will be. At the end of September 2007, the leaders in the GOP polling were Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney; John McCain ultimately won the nomination.
At the end of September 2011, Mitt Romney (the ultimate nominee) was leading, but one week later the leader was Herman Cain; they battled for the lead for a week before Newt Gingrich sprang into the lead, which he kept until late December 2011. By February 2012 Rick Santorum gained the lead; it wasn’t until late February 2012 that Romney was in the lead to stay.