A new poll from Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy shows former Vice President Joe Biden as the only one of the many competitors for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination challenging President Donald Trump in the all-important battleground state of Florida.
Politico reports that the “survey of registered Florida voters showed Biden with a narrow 47-45 lead over the president,” still well within the margin of error, but also well ahead of any other Democratic contender, including both progressives, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), and the other self-described “moderate” on the campaign trail, South Bend, Indiana, mayor Pete Buttigieg.
The new poll echoes the results of a Siena College/New York Times poll released back in November that shook up the race for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination. Ahead of that poll, Warren and Sanders backers argued, convincingly, that Democrats should nominate a far-left candidate in 2020 in order to give voters a clear option in the presidential contest. Both candidates claimed they could court voters in battleground states like Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Florida effectively and prevent President Donald Trump from earning a second term in the White House.
That conclusion, it seems, was in error. The Siena College/NYT poll showed only Biden posing a threat to Trump in the Rust Belt and across battleground states in the midwest — states the Democrats desperately need to retake from Trump if they hope to even come close to winning the 2020 presidential election. In 2016, Wisconsin and Michigan, two states where the core Democratic base leans moderate and blue collar, abandoned Hillary Clinton, ultimately costing her the Electoral College.
The Mason-Dixon survey suggests voters in battleground states are very sour on progressives and that Warren and Sanders won’t get far in swing states.
“The Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy survey of registered Florida voters showed Biden with a narrow 47-45 lead over the president, within the 4 percentage-point margin of error,” Politico said. “Among registered voters surveyed, Trump easily bested Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren 51-42 and held comfortable leads over Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont (49-44) and South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg (49-45).”
“Sanders was the least popular candidate among those surveyed,” the report continued. “Just 35 percent of registered voters said they had a favorable opinion of him, while 52 percent had a negative opinion. Warren was also viewed unfavorably (37-48), as was Buttigieg (32-38).”
Trump is also technically unpopular in the state, with a 45% approval rating (47% disapprove). Biden is the only candidate who has a net positive approval rating, and then only by four points — still within the poll’s margin of error.
The polling does seeem to echo national trends, as well. While Sanders’ support has remained steady, Warren’s has tanked in recent weeks to the point where the campaign is now begging for last-minute Q4 donations. Warren’s polling numbers have declined more than 10% since a high in early November, and her fundraising has tanked by a third. Such a result suggests that Warren’s campaign is nearly over, and that a loss in an early primary state like New Hampshire or Iowa may mean the end of her presidential hopes.
