The Census Bureau predicts that the U.S. population will decline for the first time ever by the year 2100 after peaking in 2080.
Census Bureau estimates released Thursday showed that the U.S. population — which now stands at roughly 333 million — is expected to reach 370 million by 2080, but then drop off to 366 million by 2100. While fewer Americans choose to have large families and fertility rates decrease, U.S. population growth mainly relies on immigration. In each projection other than the “zero-immigration” scenario, immigration is the most significant factor in population numbers in America.
“The U.S. has experienced notable shifts in the components of population change over the last five years,” Census Bureau Demographer Sandra Johnson said. “Some of these, like the increases in mortality caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, are expected to be short-term while others, including the declines in fertility that have persisted for decades, are likely to continue into the future. Incorporating additional years of data on births, deaths and international migration into our projections process resulted in a slower pace of population growth through 2060 than was previously projected.”
The Census Bureau’s projection took the most likely immigration scenario over the next 77 years, but in a “high-immigration scenario,” the bureau said that the U.S. population would reach 435 million by 2100. In a “low-immigration” scenario, the U.S. population drops to 319 million in 2100, significantly lower than what it is today.
The most alarming projection came from the “zero-immigration” scenario, which “projects that population declines would start in 2024 in the complete absence of foreign-born immigration,” the Census Bureau said, adding, “The population in this scenario is projected to be 226 million in 2100, roughly 107 million lower than the 2022 estimate.”
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The median age of the U.S. population is projected to rise in each of the Census Bureau’s scenarios. In the most likely projection, 29% of Americans will be 65 or older by 2100, compared to just 16.4% of the population being under 18. Currently, 16.8% of the U.S. population is 65 or older, and 22.1% is under 18.
Earlier this year, the Census Bureau also reported that the U.S. median age hit a record high at 38.9 in 2022.
“It’s simple arithmetic. Fewer kids are being born,” said Andrew A. Beveridge, the president of demographic data firm Social Explorer.
Declining fertility rates and an aging population are issues already affecting European and Asian countries whose populations are expected to dwindle in the coming decades. Europe’s median age has increased to 44, and Japan’s median age hit 48 years old, making it the oldest country in the world.
China’s population is also in decline as India overtook the communist country as the world’s most populous nation earlier this year. The population in China shrunk in 2022 for the first time since Mao’s famine in 1961 that killed tens of millions of people.