TRUMP DOWN BUT NOT OUT: Savvy Politicos Say Reports Of President’s Demise Greatly Exaggerated

When Mark Twain was in London in 1897, rumors began circulating in the United States that he had died.

Asked by a British reporter about a newspaper that had run his obituary, Twain reportedly quipped: “The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated” (sadly, he didn’t say exactly that, but it makes a nice tale).

The same can be said about President Trump — reports of his political death are greatly exaggerated.

According to The Economist, the 2020 presidential race is over. The British magazine says presumed Democratic nominee Joe Biden has a 91% chance of winning the Electoral College (with as many as 415 electoral votes) and a 99% chance of winning the popular vote. President Trump, meanwhile, has just an 8% chance of winning the Electoral College and just a 1% chance of winning the most votes.

Nearly every poll out there currently puts Biden atop Trump, some by double digits. But those are national polls. It’s the swing states that will decide the race (just like in 2016). And while The Economist gives Biden a slew of those — deeming the Democrat “likely” or “very likely” to win states like Pennsylvania, Florida, Michigan, and Wisconsin — there are still 99 days left in the campaign and anything can happen.

Nate Silver, a statistician who analyzes elections as editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight, says the race is not over.

“While he’s clearly in trouble, I do not buy that Trump’s fate is sealed,” Silver said on ABC on Sunday. “A lot could change in the next 100 days. Things could get worse for the president. But a turnaround in the COVID situation in the fall could make the election more competitive.”

Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report echoed Silver’s take, dissing The Economist.

“To publish a model that says Biden has a 92% chance to win based on today’s polls is a disservice, IMO. If the election were today, Biden would have like a 99% chance. But is there a >8% chance the race could shift back in Trump’s direction? Absolutely,” he wrote on Twitter.

Wasserman added: “Trump’s numbers atm [at the moment] on COVID & race are absolutely awful. Even so, he only trails Biden by 8% in the 538 average and might only need to crawl back to within 3-4% to win the EC. Trump was within 3% as recently as *April.* After 2[0]16, we should all proceed with some caution.”

Trump’s numbers atm on Covid & race are absolutely awful. Even so, he only trails Biden by 8% in the 538 average and might only need to crawl back to within 3-4% to win the EC.

Trump was within 3% as recently as *April.* After 216, we should all proceed with some caution.

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) July 26, 2020

It’s worth noting that Democrat Hillary Clinton soundly beat Trump in the popular vote in 2016, topping the Republican by more than 2%, or 2,868,518 votes. But Trump crushed Clinton in the Electoral College, winning 304-227.

RealClearPolitics (RCP), which keeps tabs on all polls and puts out a running average, puts Biden atop Trump by 8.7 points, 49.6% to 40.9%. But the site says that 13 states are currently “toss-ups”: Texas (38); Florida (29); Pennsylvania (20); Ohio (18); Michigan (16); Georgia (16); North Carolina (15); Arizona (11); Wisconsin (10); Missouri (10); Iowa (6); Nevada (6); New Hampshire (4). With a couple of other state districts also in play, that’s 201 Electoral Votes in play in the race to 270. How those states and districts break will decide who wins the White House.

One nationwide survey recently found that there may be “secret Trump supporters” in at least one swing state that could tilt the election toward the president on Nov. 3.

The poll by Monmouth University of 401 Pennsylvania voters conducted July 9-13 found that a majority of voters believe there are Trump supporters out there who aren’t being counted. “The media consistently reports that Biden is in the lead, but voters remember what happened in 2016. The specter of a secret Trump vote looms large in 2020,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

So at least right now, the reports that Trump is dead and buried are greatly exaggerated.