Trump Braced For Oil Prices To Skyrocket As Iran Tensions Rose

President Donald Trump admitted during a Tuesday interview that when he decided to take military action against Iran, he had expected oil prices to rise even higher than they have.

The president faces daily pushback over the rising oil prices tied to the conflict with Iran, but as he explained on CNBC, he had been prepared to weather even harsher criticism because he thought prices could potentially surge as high as $200 per barrel.

“If you would have told me that oil was at $90 as opposed to $200, I would be frankly surprised,” said President Trump, explaining that while the hotly-contested Strait of Hormuz is certainly important, people have found other sources for oil. “It’s an amazing phenomenon but when there are problems, people find out how to take care of things.”

If oil prices do reach Trump’s predicted $200 per barrel, they would be above record pricing. Oil prices peaked at $150 per barrel back in 2008 — which would be equivalent to about $230 per barrel today. Oil prices, currently at $90 per barrel, are the highest they have been since 2022. 

Trump said he had also expected the stock market to be in a worse position due to the hostilities in the Middle East: “Look at the S&P 500 Index — it’s trading at exactly the same level as when we began all this. I thought it would drop 20% or more, and that oil prices would be much higher — but I’m pleased to say that hasn’t happened.”

The President explained that he felt he had to make the decision to allow the market to take a short-term hit in order to avoid one in the long run.

“When I hit 50,000 on the DOW and 7,000 on the S&P, I said I hate to do this to everybody, but I’m going to have to journey down to a place called Iran and make sure they don’t have a nuclear weapon because they will blow up the world,” Trump said, adding, “You want to see a bad stock market, try blowing up the Middle East then Europe and then they come for us.” 

Oil futures are signaling that, within the next six months, oil could drop back down to pre-war prices. Late 2026 futures have traded around $40 per barrel, and overall expectations suggest oil prices will fall to the mid-$70s by year’s end.