In Michigan, late winter and early spring are unpredictable. It’s a time of year when the state could get buried under a foot of snow at the beginning of a week and then reach 60 degrees with sunshine by the weekend.
This year, Michigan’s unpredictable late winter season will also serve as an important gauge in a wide-open 2026 midterm Senate election. For the first time in the state’s history, the governor’s race and the U.S. Senate contest will both take place without an incumbent running in either election, thanks to the retirement of Democratic Senator Gary Peters. While the primary elections and the warm Michigan summer are still months away, the Michigan Senate race is already heating up.
The 2026 Senate election in Michigan could also serve as a bellwether for other important races across the country as the GOP looks to hold onto control in the upper chamber. Michigan remains a political paradox as a state that returned Trump to the White House in 2024 while simultaneously electing a Democrat to the Senate. In 2026, it once again remains a pure toss-up.
Recent elections have been brutal for Michigan Republican Senate candidates. The party hasn’t won a Senate race in the state since 1994 — when star athletes Isaiah Thomas and Barry Sanders were still playing in Detroit.
Strong Start For Republicans
Republicans are hoping for a breakthrough in this year’s Senate election with former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers, a familiar name on the ballot in Michigan. Rogers ran for an open Senate seat in 2024, but despite voters pushing Trump over the edge in Michigan, Rogers lost to Democrat Elissa Slotkin by just over 20,000 votes.
Asked if there is any lingering trepidation from the 2024 election loss, Rogers told The Daily Wire that he’s confident he has “enough votes in the bank to win this election.”
“We had over 100,000 people walk into the polls in 2024, vote for Donald Trump, and turn around and leave, didn’t vote for any other Republican,” Rogers said. “Here’s the good news: I got more Republican votes than any other statewide candidate for a state of Michigan office in the history of the state by 300,000 votes. So I have enough votes in the bank to win this election. We’ve just got to get people ginned up to get there.”
Mike Rogers (JEFF KOWALSKY/AFP via Getty Images)
This year, Rogers once again boasts an endorsement from Trump, which came much earlier in the race than in 2024, marking him as the clear favorite to win the GOP primary. With the primary all but secure, Rogers is busy building a general election war chest as a crowded field of Democrats vie for the nomination. That’s a welcome development for the Rogers campaign, which fell far behind the Democrats in fundraising in 2024.
Rogers told The Daily Wire that he believes his campaign represents Republicans’ best chance to pick up a Senate seat in the 2026 midterms.
“Having President Trump’s endorsement early, having the Senate leadership support early, having our ground game organized early, all of that has made a tremendous difference,” he said. “And the result of that is that we’ve led in the last four current polls, which tells you in a state like Michigan, getting out a little bit early like this and having better ground game, better organization, better funding is really, really significant.”
Rogers said that after decades of Democratic control of both U.S. Senate seats in Michigan, residents are ready for “change.”
“People are fired up about this race, and they’re excited for change,” he said. “And why not have a voice of reason finally, after 30 years, representing somebody who actually started working on a factory floor and is now a candidate for Senate.”
As he gears up for a general election battle, Rogers is fine-tuning his messaging on the economy and the housing market, issues that President Trump has also focused on in recent months. Earlier this month, Rogers unveiled a plan to help Americans “unlock homeownership.” The Republican Senate candidate proposed expanding 529 savings plans to cover first-time home down payments and deferring student loan payments while saving for a down payment.
“The Democrats will find everything to be against. They don’t stand for much of anything for how to fix a problem,” Rogers said. “They know that I’ve fixed problems, and I’m going to fix problems when I become their next United States senator. That’s what people are fired up about.”
The Daily Wire asked Rogers about Americans’ ongoing economic frustrations one year after Trump, who was largely elected on promises to fix those economic issues, was sworn in. Rogers said the Trump administration and Republicans are trying to fix “four years of really bad Democrat policies” under the Biden administration. The GOP Senate candidate specifically called out how former President Joe Biden’s policies affected Michigan autoworkers.
“They damn near put out of business two great American car companies with all these EV mandates. Even the Ford CEO came out and said it was the EV mandates that was the cause of the increase of cost for these cars,” he said. “Democrats have had years to do this damage. The Republicans and Donald Trump have had about a year to undo as much of that as possible.”
A Big Question Mark For Democrats
Three Democratic candidates are in a close primary race for the chance to face Rogers and maintain the Democratic Party’s dominance in Michigan Senate elections.
U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens, state Senate leader Mallory McMorrow, and former health care director Dr. Abdul El-Sayed are at the top of the field in a crowded race. While Republicans are already focusing on the general election, the door remains wide open for Democrats. According to the most recent polling from Emerson College, McMorrow leads the field at 22%, with Stevens coming in at 17% and El-Sayed standing at 16%. Nearly 40% of voters polled, however, remained undecided.
Each of the Democratic candidates is struggling to maintain momentum and has been hurt by recent controversies. A video published by conservative outlet Townhall in December shows McMorrow suggesting to supporters that she would throw beer at conservative Supreme Court Justices Amy Coney Barrett and Brett Kavanaugh if she saw them in public.
“I talked to somebody yesterday who said they saw her with Brett Kavanaugh at a tailgate last weekend. I was like, ‘I would not be able to control myself,’” McMorrow said. “That would be bad — there would be beers thrown in people’s faces.”
State Sen. Mallory McMorrow (Jacek Boczarski/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Stevens was criticized by some Democratic leaders late last year after she filed articles of impeachment against Health and Human Services Director Robert F. Kennedy Jr. According to The New York Times, some of Stevens Democratic colleagues viewed the move as a political stunt.
Stevens shot back, arguing that she’s “not one for political theater” and that she was “standing up for the health and safety of the people I represent.”
Rep. Haley Stevens (Melina Mara/The Washington Post via Getty Images)
In October, El-Sayed sent a fundraising email on the anniversary of Hamas’s October 7, 2023, attack on Israel, but in the email, El-Sayed made no mention of the terror group’s atrocities and blamed Israel for launching “a ground invasion of Gaza.” After the email was sent, the Democratic candidate said that it was pushed out by mistake, and he released a separate statement on the anniversary of October 7 condemning Hamas for the “heinous attack,” but also accusing Israel of committing “genocide.”
El-Sayed, who was endorsed by democratic socialist Sen. Bernie Sanders, told The Daily Wire last week that the email had been approved to go out, but was supposed to be sent on a different day.
“It went out, and I very quickly reached out to leaders in the Jewish community to apologize for having stepped on their grief,” he said, adding, “The message in the email is something I stand by.”
Dr. Abdul El-Sayed (Erin Kirkland/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
The top Democratic candidates are already beating up on each other, and there are still months to go in the bitter primary battle before Michigan’s August 4 primary. In a forum hosted by the United Auto Workers in Detroit last week, the Democratic candidates clashed over multiple issues, including how far to the Left Michigan voters would be willing to go.
McMorrow, who is leading in early polls, suggested that El-Sayed — who is the farthest to the Left of the three Democrats — is focusing on “rhetoric” over delivering results, while arguing that Stevens is “too beholden to corporate interests.” During the forum, Stevens, who is viewed as most in line with the Democratic establishment and is endorsed by former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, focused her attacks on Trump and Rogers, NBC News reported.
El-Sayed, meanwhile, ran to the Left of both McMorrow and Stevens, calling for “Medicare for all” and for Immigration and Customs Enforcement to be “abolished,” stances he also discussed in a 20-minute phone conversation with The Daily Wire last week.
The Daily Wire reached out to the campaigns of McMorrow and Stevens, requesting interviews, but they have not responded.
The race could ultimately come down to how well Republicans can maintain their focus on the general election and whether Rogers can maintain his fundraising advantage, as the Democrats battle it out for the nomination.
A lot can change in these political campaigns in a short amount of time — just like Michigan’s weather in late February.
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