CNN’s chief data analyst Harry Enten threw cold water on the Democratic Party as the 2026 midterm elections approach, saying that at least in terms of popularity, they were well behind where they had been in previous years.
Enten joined anchor John Berman on Monday morning to discuss the elections — less than eight months away — and said that Democrats were nowhere near where they had been in previous midterm elections when the president was a Republican.
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NEW: Republicans lead in net favorability ahead of the 2026 midterms
“Democrats are, just simply put, running behind their previous benchmark…” pic.twitter.com/VeE4MdDqsx
— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) April 6, 2026
“Just take a look at this, net favorability, party ahead at this point, midterm years with a GOP president. In 2018, Dems were up by 12,” Enten said. “In 2006, on net favorability, which party do you like more, Dems are ahead by 18. Republicans are actually ahead on net favorability at this [point] by five points. So Democrats are just, simply put, running behind their previous benchmarks and they need to be running well ahead of them if they want to take back the United States Senate, given that math.”
Just a few minutes earlier, Enten laid out the reasons he believed that Democrats had a relatively decent shot at taking control of the U.S. House in the midterms, but would have a much harder time gaining a majority in the Senate.
Citing a small lead for Democrats on generic ballots, Enten said that spread might just be enough to overcome the slim Republican margin in the House of Representatives.
“I would say this, Mr. Berman, and that is that this lead is historically low for Democrats at this point with a Republican president,” Enten explained. “Because, take a look here, and I’m taking a look at the average of all the polls, Dem generic congressional ballot lead at this point in the cycle with a Republican president. On average, their lead’s actually slightly less, it’s five points. That’s less than it was back in 2018 when it was eight points, and way less than it was during the 2006 cycle when it was 11 points.”
“So, yeah, Democrats are ahead, but they’re only ahead by five with a president whose net approval rating is bordering on -20 to -30, depending on what polls you look at. You’d make the argument Democrats should be way ahead. And they’re just only sort of, slightly ahead,” he added.
That math, according to Enten, would not help Democrats in the Senate because of the map in play in 2026.
“I think five points is enough to take back the House, but in the Senate, five points is almost certainly not enough if you apply it to the Senate map,” Enten argued. “Why do I say that? Because let’s just take a look, GOP would win the Senate with this map. Let’s say Republicans only hold onto the states that Trump won by greater than 10 points. That would, in fact, give them the Senate 51 to 49.”
Given the current Senate makeup — 53 Republicans, 47 Democrats, and two independents who caucus with Democrats — Democrats would have to flip at least four seats in November in order to take the majority. On a map that Enten identified as far more friendly to the GOP, Ballotpedia has identified ten seats in total — eight of them currently held by Republicans — as potential “battlegrounds”: Alaska (R), Montana (R), Texas (R), Nebraska (R), Wisconsin (D), Ohio (R), Florida (R), North Carolina (R), New Hampshire (D), and Maine (R).
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