<p>CNN&#8217;s chief data analyst Harry Enten threw cold water on the Democratic Party as the 2026 midterm elections approach, saying that at least in terms of popularity, they were well behind where they had been in previous years.</p>
<p>Enten joined anchor John Berman on Monday morning to discuss the elections — less than eight months away — and said that Democrats were nowhere near where they had been in previous midterm elections when the president was a Republican.</p>
<p><strong>WATCH:</strong></p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p dir="ltr" lang="en">NEW: Republicans lead in net favorability ahead of the 2026 midterms</p>
<p>&#8220;Democrats are, just simply put, running behind their previous benchmark&#8230;&#8221; <a href="https://t.co/VeE4MdDqsx">pic.twitter.com/VeE4MdDqsx</a></p>
<p>— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) <a href="https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/2041156139274948973?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 6, 2026</a></p></blockquote>
<p>&#8220;Just take a look at this, net favorability, party ahead at this point, midterm years with a GOP president. In 2018, Dems were up by 12,&#8221; Enten said. &#8220;In 2006, on net favorability, which party do you like more, Dems are ahead by 18. Republicans are actually ahead on net favorability at this [point] by five points. So Democrats are just, simply put, running behind their previous benchmarks and they need to be running well ahead of them if they want to take back the United States Senate, given that math.&#8221;</p>
<p>Just a few minutes earlier, Enten laid out the <a href="https://www.mediaite.com/media/tv/cnn-data-guru-reveals-gop-may-keep-the-senate-thanks-to-dems-historically-low-midterm-lead/">reasons</a> he believed that Democrats had a relatively decent shot at taking control of the U.S. House in the midterms, but would have a much harder time gaining a majority in the Senate.</p>
<p>Citing a small lead for Democrats on generic ballots, Enten said that spread might just be enough to overcome the slim Republican margin in the House of Representatives.</p>
<p>&#8220;I would say this, Mr. Berman, and that is that this lead is historically low for Democrats at this point with a Republican president,&#8221; Enten explained. &#8220;Because, take a look here, and I’m taking a look at the average of all the polls, Dem generic congressional ballot lead at this point in the cycle with a Republican president. On average, their lead’s actually slightly less, it’s five points. That’s less than it was back in 2018 when it was eight points, and way less than it was during the 2006 cycle when it was 11 points.&#8221;</p>
<p>&#8220;So, yeah, Democrats are ahead, but they’re only ahead by five with a president whose net approval rating is bordering on -20 to -30, depending on what polls you look at. You’d make the argument Democrats should be way ahead. And they’re just only sort of, slightly ahead,&#8221; he added.</p>
<p>That math, according to Enten, would not help Democrats in the Senate because of the map in play in 2026.</p>
<p>&#8220;I think five points is enough to take back the House, but in the Senate, five points is almost certainly not enough if you apply it to the Senate map,&#8221; Enten argued. &#8220;Why do I say that? Because let’s just take a look, GOP would win the Senate with this map. Let’s say Republicans only hold onto the states that Trump won by greater than 10 points. That would, in fact, give them the Senate 51 to 49.&#8221;</p>
<p>Given the current Senate makeup — 53 Republicans, 47 Democrats, and two independents who caucus with Democrats — Democrats would have to flip at least four seats in November in order to take the majority. On a map that Enten identified as far more friendly to the GOP, <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/U.S._Senate_battlegrounds,_2026">Ballotpedia</a> has identified ten seats in total — eight of them currently held by Republicans — as potential &#8220;battlegrounds&#8221;: Alaska (R), Montana (R), Texas (R), Nebraska (R), Wisconsin (D), Ohio (R), Florida (R), North Carolina (R), New Hampshire (D), and Maine (R).</p>

<script async src="https://www.instagram.com/embed.js"></script>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
<script async src="https://www.tiktok.com/embed.js"></script><div data-widget-host="revcontent" data-pub-id="165152" data-widget-id="290588"></div><script src="https://delivery.revcontent.com/165152/290588/widget.js"></script>

The Midterm Warning Signs Are Flashing For Democrats, And Even CNN Sees It

CONTINUE READING

Why Trump Might Not Make It To His Son Don Jr’s Wedding

Spencer Pratt Reveals His Political Role Model

WATCH: Suspected Fraudster On The Run After Fourth-Floor Balcony Escape

WATCH: The Moment Police Officer Catches Baby Thrown From Burning Home

One Of America’s Most Dangerous Rescue Missions Is Becoming A Movie

WATCH: Pedestrians Run For Their Lives As Flaming Vehicle Explodes In Massive Cloud Of Smoke

News

2026 elections

2026 midterm

Harry Enten

Media

Politics

A video goes viral showing a baby being refused his mother by two gay "dads". This is just the tip of the iceberg, which is why we will have an important discussion today about surrogacy. 

Hour 1

The Matt Walsh Show

Ep. 1765 - This Video Is One Of The Worst Things I've Seen In A Long Time 

The Strait of Hormuz officially opens for business (kind of), the Pope makes “shocking” comments on immigration, and President Trump promises UFO disclosure at TPUSA. 


The Michael Knowles Show

Ep. 1956 -  Pope Leo's "SHOCKING" Immigration Comments EXPLAINED

A false miscreed has corrupted our leadership class.


The Andrew Klavan Show

Ep. 1275 - Dumb, Dumber and Progressive

President Trump announces a 10-day ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel, a murder-suicide involving former Democratic Lieutenant Governor Justin Fairfax shakes Virginia, and France and Britain hold a conference to secure the Strait of Hormuz – after the Iranian conflict ends. Get the facts first with Morning Wire.

- - -

Ep. 2738

- - -

Wake up with new Morning Wire merch: https://bit.ly/4lIubt3

- - -

Today's Sponsors:

Alliance Defending Freedom - Visit https://JoinADF.com/WIRE or text 'WIRE' to 83848 to learn more.

Pocket Hose - Text MORNING to 64000 to get a FREE pocket pivot and their 10-pattern sprayer with the purchase of ANY size Copper Head hose. Message and data rates may apply.

Morning Wire

U.S. Expands Hormuz Blockade & VA Fairfax Deaths Investigated | 4.17.26

U.S. Expands Hormuz Blockade & VA Fairfax Deaths Investigated | 4.17.26 [Member Exclusive]

A ceasefire goes into effect between Israel and Lebanon, a tragic murder-suicide rocks Virginia, and Dairy Queen deploys AI in the drive-thru. Get the facts first with Evening Wire.
- - -
Ep. 2737
- - -
Wake up with new Morning Wire merch: https://bit.ly/4lIubt3 
- - -
Today’s Sponsor:

Alliance Defending Freedom - Visit https://JoinADF.com/WIRE or text “WIRE” to 83848 to learn more.


Evening Wire: Lebanon Ceasefire Begins & Murder-Suicide Rocks VA | 4.16.26

The Pendragon Cycle

Menu

— News —

The Midterm Warning Signs Are Flashing For Democrats, And Even CNN Sees It