The Impact Of Operation Epic Fury On Oil And Beyond The Battlefield

Global oil prices spiked on Monday as the United States and Israel continued a joint military operation targeting Iran’s military infrastructure.

Global benchmark Brent crude oil jumped from Friday’s close of $73.21 per barrel to more than $80 at one point before settling around $78.46, a gain of more than 7%. The prices could jump even more if maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz continues to be disrupted. Every day, about one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas passes through the strait, according to Bloomberg. 

Citigroup analysts said there was about a 20% chance that oil could jump to $120 a barrel if the war escalates and maritime flows are significantly disrupted. 

The United States Maritime Administration issued a warning Saturday advising ships to stay clear of the Strait of Hormuz, the Persian Gulf, and the Gulf of Oman. 

“It is recommended that vessels keep clear of this area if possible. Any U.S.-flagged, owned, or crewed commercial vessels that are operating in these areas should maintain a standoff of 30 nautical miles from U.S. military vessels to reduce the risk of being mistaken as a threat,” the administration said. 

Multiple oil tankers in the region have been damaged since fighting began, Reuters reported. 

Oil producers in the region have also shut down operations amid strikes from Iran. In Saudi Arabia, Aramco shut down its Ras Tanura refinery as a precautionary measure after one of its storage facilities was reportedly struck by an Iranian drone. The facility produces around 550,000 barrels of oil per day.

Other producers in the Iraqi-Kurdistan region have also paused production for precautionary purposes. 

QatarEnergy announced that it was pausing production amid attacks on its facilities. QatarEnergy is the world’s largest liquefied natural-gas producer. That announcement came after a strike on Qatar’s Ras Laffan complex, where it processes natural gas. European natural gas prices jumped by as much as 50% following the announcement.

It remains unclear how long the U.S.-Israel operation will continue, though President Donald Trump has said it could go on for weeks.