The Government Shutdown Means There’s No September Jobs Report. Is That Bad?

WASHINGTON—The first Friday of every month usually brings one of the government’s most closely-watched economic indicators: the monthly jobs report.

The Federal Reserve relies on the report to make policy, while news outlets — and their readers — look to the monthly jobs report as an indicator of how the economy is doing. And the White House usually trumpets the jobs numbers to celebrate or defend its handling of the economy.

Thanks to the government shutdown, we aren’t going to get September’s job report.

The jobs report set to drop last Friday would have said that the United States added 50,000 jobs in September, economists estimate. That’s 32,000 more jobs than the previous month, but 200,000 fewer than September of last year. And while significantly down from highs in mid-2022, inflation is up from earlier this year at 2.9% for the 12 months ending in August.

But that’s all we’re getting so long as the government is shut down. Out of 2,055 employees at the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), only one is still reporting for duty.

Even if that one employee wanted to put out the report, he couldn’t: the Antideficiency Act bars federal agencies from carrying out normal operations during a lapse in appropriations, unless their work relates to “emergencies involving the safety of human life or the protection of property.”

Jobs numbers may not be essential under the shutdown’s legal definition, but they are a critical input for the Federal Reserve, which has to make a decision on interest rates later this month.

“You know, it is such an unusual situation,” Powell said at last month’s Federal Reserve meeting. “Ordinarily, when the labor market is weak, inflation is low; and when the labor market is really strong, that’s when you’ve got to be careful about inflation.” Powell added that it’s a situation “where we have two-sided risk, and that means there’s no risk-free path.

Powell did note that the risk of a persistent inflation outbreak is down, allowing the Fed to pursue policy in the direction of neutrality. In September, the Fed Committee voted to lower the fed funds rate by a quarter percentage point.

Polymarket, the largest crypto-based prediction market platform, is predicting an additional 25-basis-point cut on Wednesday. Typically, the Fed avoids cutting rates when inflation is above 2%. But last month, it cited a weakening labor market as justification for the cut. With odds of a 25-basis-point cut at 90%, traders on Polymarket are expecting the Fed to cite a weakening labor market again.

This is the latest dustup in a bumpy year for the Federal Reserve.

In late August, President Trump called for the firing of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook over allegations of mortgage fraud. Cook refused to resign, stating that the president did not have the authority to do so because the Federal Reserve is an independent agency.

And while Cook and Trump’s feud just began last month, the president has been sparring with Powell for most of his second term.

Last week, President Trump took to Truth Social to state, “I really believe that Jerome ‘Too Late’ Powell is an OBSTRUCTIONIST!”

In July, President Trump brought his transgressions in person when he toured the Federal Reserve construction project, noting the “cost overruns are substantial.”

The conflict notably escalated in April 2025 when Trump posted on Truth Social that Powell’s “termination cannot come fast enough!”

While not having fired anyone at the Fed, President Trump did fire Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner Erika McEntarfer, whom he claimed “RIGGED” jobs numbers. He nominated Heritage Foundation economist EJ Antoni to lead the Bureau, but the White House has since pulled the nomination.

Regardless of who’s at the Bureau’s helm, job numbers won’t be released until the government reopens. And without Friday’s jobs numbers, the Federal Reserve will be forced to turn to alternative sources.

Speaking at the Nashville Area Chamber of Commerce today, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic offered insight into alternative data reports.

“We have a survey center,” Bostic explained. “We do a bunch of surveys of businesses — for example we ask CEOs what’s your hiring plan for the next twelve months, what’s the likelihood you will reduce prices in the next quarter to get an idea of what actual decision makers are doing.”