New research shows that cities that held Black Lives Matter protests saw a 10% increase in murders than was expected from 2014-2019.
Preliminary findings from a study conducted by Travis Campbell, a Ph.D. student at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, show that cities with protests had “somewhere between 1,000 and 6,000 more homicides than would have been expected if places with protests were on the same trend as places that did not have protests,” from 2014 to 2019, left-wing Vox reported.
The study also showed a reduction in lethal force by police, resulting in some 300 fewer deaths from 2014 to 2019:
From 2014 to 2019, Campbell tracked more than 1,600 BLM protests across the country, largely in bigger cities, with nearly 350,000 protesters. His main finding is a 15 to 20 percent reduction in lethal use of force by police officers — roughly 300 fewer police homicides — in census places that saw BLM protests.
Campbell’s research also indicates that these protests correlate with a 10 percent increase in murders in the areas that saw BLM protests. That means from 2014 to 2019, there were somewhere between 1,000 and 6,000 more homicides than would have been expected if places with protests were on the same trend as places that did not have protests. Campbell’s research does not include the effects of last summer’s historic wave of protests because researchers do not yet have all the relevant data.
Among their demands, Black Lives Matter has called for the defunding of police departments across the country. However, cities that have heeded such demands and made changes to how they fund law enforcement, including those cities that have passed at least some progressive police reform, have not seen their communities become any safer, Campbell’s work seems to evince.
The research notably does not include protests from this summer. While peaceful Black Lives Matter protests were held, there was also much chaos, typically at night, that included arson, looting, destruction, and violence during the demonstrations. The rioting resulted in destroyed communities, billions of dollars in property damage, and dozens of deaths.
“The protests that took place in 140 U.S. cities this spring were mostly peaceful, but the arson, vandalism, and looting that did occur will result in at least $1 billion to $2 billion of paid insurance claims — eclipsing the record set in Los Angeles in 1992 after the acquittal of the police officers who brutalized Rodney King,” Axios reported in September.
Currently, former Minneapolis Police Officer Derek Chauvin is on trial for the death of George Floyd, facing charges of second-degree murder, third-degree murder, and second-degree manslaughter. It’s suspected that Minneapolis will be hit again with another wave of violent rioting if the verdict is not to activists’ liking.
Model and Black Lives Matter activist Maya Echols, for example, warned last month that the city would suffer riots and vandalism if Chauvin is not convicted. “If George Floyd’s murderer is not sentenced, just know that all hell is gonna break loose,” Echols said in a now-removed video. “Don’t be surprised when buildings are on fire. Just sayin’.”