An animal welfare regulation in California has led to fears of a pork shortage throughout the state, as pork producers sue to delay its implementation.
Proposition 12, which voters passed in 2018 by a 2 to 1 margin, “creates new minimum requirements on farmers to provide more space for egg-laying hens, breeding pigs, and calves raised for veal.” Under current law, animals raised for food must have enough space to “turn around freely, lie down, stand up, and fully extend their limbs.” Under Proposition 12, beginning in 2022, egg-laying hens must be cage-free, veal calves must have 43 square feet of room in their pens, and breeding pigs must have 24 square feet of room in their pens.
The new regulation “also makes it illegal for businesses in California to knowingly sell eggs (including liquid eggs) or uncooked pork or veal that came from animals housed in ways that do not meet the measure’s requirements. This sales ban applies to products from animals raised in California or out-of-state.” It also requires the California Department of Food and Agriculture and the Department of Public Health to write the specific requirements needed to implement the rule.
The problem is, state officials have failed to meet deadlines for releasing those requirements, as The Associated Press reports. The state agriculture and health departments have both said that they didn’t have enough time to approve final regulations, as they are still accepting public comments. It could take months to approve final regulations.
And hog farmers have yet to make the necessary changes required by the law. Those changes, if they go into effect January 1, could cost farmers dearly. An analysis conducted by North Carolina State University, cited by the AP, found that the new regulations could cost about 15% more per animal for a farm with 1,000 breeding pigs. Hog farmers have argued that the new regulations are too expensive and that they can’t even be implemented until the final regulations are written. A group of restaurant and grocery store industry organizations, as well as a meat packing company, have sued the state, demanding a two-year stay on the law until regulations can be fully implemented.
California has the largest pork market in the U.S., with more than 255 million pounds consumed every month, taking up fully 13% of the nation’s supply of pork, the AP reports. Out-of-state farmers account for more than 80% of that supply. If the law goes into full effect, California could be significantly deprived of supply as out-of-state producers fail to get their products to market. If that happens, the state could face shortages and steep price increases. One analysis projected a 60% increase in the price of bacon in California, though a UC Davis study estimates that pork prices would rise by about 8%, the AP reports.
“What will happen in California? I don’t know,” Michael Formica, the general counsel for the National Pork Producers Council, told the AP. “One thing we know is there will be finite supplies to sell there.”
California is trying to mitigate potential shortages by allowing pork processed under the old rules and stored previously to be sold in the state in 2022. The pork industry also has about 466 million pounds of pork in cold storage, and when combined with those producers who do come into compliance by 2022, the state should be able to meet the demand in part.
Across the nation, supply chain problems are also threatening shortages of a number of dietary staples. Cream cheese, chicken tenders, maple syrup, and liquor are just some of the products.