A new NBC poll taken between June 27-July 3 indicates that the RNC’s decision to do everything it can to prevent a Dump Trump movement at the GOP convention is badly calculated. The poll found that although a Hillary Clinton-Donald Trump matchup showed Clinton handily beating Trump, Clinton either lost or tied with other prospective GOP candidates.
The poll showed Clinton defeating Trump by five percentages points, 48% to 43%. That margin is far greater than Barack Obama’s margin of victory in 2012, when he defeated Mitt Romney by three percentage points, 51% to 48%, and swamped him in the electoral college vote, 332 to 206. Even when Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green party nominee Jill Stein are added to the mix, Clinton still leads by three percentage points, 41% to 38%, the equivalent of Obama’s 2012 victory.
But when Clinton was matched against 2012 GOP candidate Mitt Romney in a two-person matchup, they tied with 45% of the vote; against House Speaker Paul Ryan, Clinton trailed by two percentage points; 47% to 45%; and when she was matched against Ohio Governor John Kasich, she trailed badly, with Kasich getting 50% of the vote and Clinton only garnering 42% of the vote.
Combined with the results of a Ballotpedia poll showing Trump losing to Clinton in all seven swing states, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia, while Ryan led her in three of those states, Iowa, Ohio, and Virginia, and Kasich led in five, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia, it should be glaringly obvious to the GOP that running Trump might well be the one way to ensure Clinton a victory in November.
It should be glaringly obvious to the GOP that running Trump might well be the one way to ensure Clinton a victory in November.
When NBC asked which candidate would be likely to win in November, the discrepancy between Clinton and Trump became far more damaging to Trump; despite his protestations that all he does is win, 55% of voters thought Clinton would win; a paltry 39% chose Trump.
The NBC poll found 9% of Democrats would vote for Ryan, while 15% would vote for Kasich; roughly 60% of independents would vote for either Ryan or Kasich.