‘Odds Have Gone Plummeting Down’: CNN Data Guru Says Democrat Hopes Of Flipping House Are Fading

CNN’s chief data analyst warned on Wednesday that the Democrats were quickly losing ground — and a lot of it — in their battle to retake control of the House of Representatives after the 2026 midterm elections.

Harry Enten joined anchor Kate Bolduan on CNN News Central, where he broke down the latest polls and addressed the possibility that Republicans — who currently have the slimmest of majorities in the House — could remain in control of the lower chamber after 2026.

WATCH:

Democrats’ chance of taking the House in 2026 have plummeted, while GOP chances have skyrocketed over the last 6 months…

Why?

1. Dems aren’t keeping up with the pace they set in 2017 on the generic ballot.

2. GOP may be looking at big gains from mid-decade redistricting. pic.twitter.com/iauGwkTmp2

— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) October 15, 2025

“If you go back six months ago, you go back to April, Kate Bolduan, what were we looking at?” Enten began. “Well, we were looking at the Democrats with a very clear shot at taking control of the U.S. House of Representatives, according to the Kalshi prediction market odds. We saw them with an 83% chance. But those odds have gone plummeting down — now we’re talking about just a 63% chance while the GOP’s chances, up like a rocket … up from 17% to now a 37% chance.”

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“So what looked like a pretty clear, likely Democratic win in the House come next year has become much closer to a toss-up at this point, although still slightly leaning Democratic,” he added.

When Bolduan asked him to explain what was going wrong, he noted that Democrats were not gaining ground the way they did during the 2017 run-up to President Donald Trump’s first midterm elections in 2018. They also discussed the potential impact of new district maps that so far appear to favor Republicans.

The party in power — in this case, the Republican Party — typically loses seats during midterm elections, but that is not always the case. Most notably, then-President George W. Bush saw a gain of eight House seats and two Senate seats in 2002. By 2006, the political wind had changed dramatically, however, and he saw massive losses: Democrats gained 32 House seats and six Senate seats, taking control of both chambers for the last two years of Bush’s presidency.