<p>Republican <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/topic/arizona" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Arizona</a> Senate candidate <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/topic/blake-masters" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Blake Masters</a> has broken into the lead against Democrat Mark Kelly, according to new polls.</p>
<p>A new poll from InsiderAdvantage/Fox 10 News has Masters and Kelly tied. At the same time, the final poll of the cycle from Emerson College showed Masters with a slight lead; another poll from Big Data Poll found another lead for Masters. The polls come amid growing optimism for a Republican wave with just four days to go before the 2022 midterms.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.fox10phoenix.com/election/2022-arizona-election-poll-lake-leads-hobbs-in-governors-race-by-3-points-senate-race-tied" target="_blank" rel="noopener">InsiderAdvantage/Fox 10 poll</a> of 550 likely voters, taken on November 2, showed Masters and Kelly tied at 48% apiece. Libertarian candidate Marc Victor, who dropped out of the race and endorsed Masters on November 1, still took 2% of the vote. Another 2% were undecided. InsiderAdvantage pollster Matt Towery told the outlet that Masters garnered support from more voters who identified themselves as independent. But the poll also found Kelly siphoning some 15% of self-identifying Republicans off from Masters.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, an <a href="https://emersoncollegepolling.com/arizona-2022-us-senate-and-gubernatorial-elections-in-dead-heat/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Emerson College poll</a> of 1,000 &#8220;very likely voters,&#8221; conducted from October 30 &#8211; November 1, showed Masters with a slight lead over incumbent Democrat Mark Kelly, 47.8%-47.3%. The poll was taken the day Victor announced he was dropping out; he took 2.8% of the vote. Just under one percent of voters were undecided, 1.3% said they were voting for someone else. Notably, Masters has gained three points since Emerson&#8217;s September poll, while Kelly has stagnated at 47%. Emerson&#8217;s poll found independents voting for Kelly, 50.4%-42.1%, but Masters was not losing as much support from his own party; 9.6% of Republicans said they were voting for Kelly.</p>
<p>Another poll of 1,051 likely voters conducted from October 31 &#8211; November 2 by independent pollster <a href="https://application.marketsight.com/app/ItemView.aspx?SharedFor=public%40bigdatapoll.com&amp;SharedBy=34090&amp;id=cbb3bec7-3bd2-4783-8cc8-af43012f99ec" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Big Data Poll</a> found Masters with a lead of just over a full percentage point over Kelly, 48.7%-47.5%. Victor took 1.9% of the vote, and another 1.9% were undecided. Big Data Poll also found Kelly leading with independents, 47% to 44.2%; but again, Kelly siphoned fewer Republican voters away from Masters, just 8.6%. Big Data Poll Director Richard Baris explained on his podcast, &#8220;<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D6apHZSo96c&amp;t=1760s" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Inside the Numbers</a>,&#8221; that Masters&#8217; lead came from his small lead in Maricopa County, a solid support buffer in Pima County, senior citizens who did not buy Kelly&#8217;s rhetoric on Social Security, and inroads Masters has made with Hispanic voters, despite trailing slightly, 48.8% to 46.9%. He also speculated that Victor dropping out and endorsing Masters could be pivotal, since his supporters would favor Masters. &#8220;It&#8217;s an incredibly close race,&#8221; Baris said.</p>
<p>Victor dropped out and endorsed Masters on November 1. “At my invitation, Blake Masters and I had an unscripted, open, and recorded discussion and exchange of ideas on a variety of issues,&#8221; Victor said in a statement, via the Arizona Republic. &#8220;After that discussion, I believe it is in the best interests of freedom and peace to withdraw my candidacy and enthusiastically support Blake Masters for United States Senate. I intend to assist in any way reasonably possible to elect Blake.”</p>
<p><a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/libertarian-candidate-endorses-blake-masters-in-late-shakeup-of-arizona-senate-race" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Victor</a> consistently polled in the single digits throughout the race and was never believed to have a viable shot at winning. His single digit support could prove crucial for Masters in a close race, however. <a href="https://blog.ohpredictive.com/press-releases/ohpi-poll-of-record-close-races-up-and-down-the-ticket-in-arizona" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Ohio Predictive Insights</a> released a poll measuring Victor’s support on Monday, pegging it at 3%. The same poll had Kelly and Masters separated by just 2%: 48% to 46%, respectively.</p>
<p>“This is another major boost of momentum as we consolidate our support,” Masters said in a statement to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/01/us/politics/blake-masters-marc-victor-arizona.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The New York Times</a> on Tuesday.</p>
<p><em>Tim Pearce contributed to this report.</em></p>

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New Polls Show Republican Blake Masters Breaking Into The Lead Against Democrat Mark Kelly In Final Days Before Midterms