A new poll from the media outlet Axios found that President Joe Biden’s support among the Latino population is eroding while support for former President Donald Trump is rising.
The latest Axios-Ipsos poll found that among Latinos, Biden was only leading Trump by nine points (41-32) as opposed to Biden’s first year as president when the margin was a whopping 29 points (53-24). That could prove pivotal in swing states such as Nevada and Arizona.
“In almost every case, Trump performs better than the Republican brand and Biden performs worse than the Democratic brand,” Ipsos pollster and senior vice president Chris Jackson stated.
“Biden’s lead shrinks even further — to 3 points — among Latinos who said they plan to vote in November,” Axios reported. 11% of Latinos surveyed said they would not vote for Biden or Trump; 28% said they were still undecided.
Latinos favored Trump by 22 points regarding the U.S. economy and 11 points on fighting crime.
A study published in the European Political Science Review noted that Trump’s support among Latinos grew between 2016 and 2020, adding, “Despite his anti-immigration positions and policies, the number of votes cast for Trump unexpectedly increased among members of the group most strongly associated with the issue of immigration. … We propose a counterintuitive explanation for this trend: due to the activation of dormant political dispositions, it is the very anti-immigration attitudes characterizing Trump that account for his ascendence among Latino voters. Latinos voting for Trump did so because of his anti-immigration positions and not despite those positions.”
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The last time a GOP presidential candidate won in Nevada (which has 6 electoral votes) occurred in 2004, when George W. Bush won 50.5% of the vote and John Kerry won 47.9% of the vote. Trump won Arizona (which has 11 electoral votes) by 3.6% in 2016 but lost narrowly by 0.3% in 2020. Aside from 2020, the only time in the last 50 years that the GOP lost Arizona came in 1996, when Bill Clinton narrowly defeated Bob Dole.
If Trump were to win both states and retain the states he won in 2020, he would receive 249 electoral votes while Biden would win 289. Trump currently is expected to win Georgia, which has 16 electoral votes; that would put him at 265 and Biden at 273.