A new poll shows that Republican Pennsylvania Senate candidate Dr. Mehmet Oz is leading Democrat John Fetterman.
The poll of 1,013 likely voters, conducted by market research firm Wick between October 9-13, found that Oz, the celebrity heart surgeon, leads by 4.5 points over Fetterman, the lieutenant governor, with just two weeks left before the 2022 midterms. The poll signifies that Oz may be breaking through a polling wall, as he has been behind Fetterman in polling for most of the cycle.
According to the poll, Oz leads Fetterman 49.1%-44.6%. Another 3.4% are voting for someone else, and 2.9% are undecided. Among those undecided voters, Oz has a sizable lead, 59%-41%.
The poll also showed that Republican Doug Mastriano is within the margin of error against Democrat Josh Shapiro in the Pennsylvania Governor’s race. Shapiro leads Mastriano 48.5%-46.4%; that number is well within the poll’s 3.1% margin of error. Mastriano also holds a slight lead among undecided voters; 50.9% of undecideds break for Mastriano, while 49.1% break for Shapiro.
The Wick poll was followed by another poll that showed the race was effectively tied. An InsiderAdvantage/Fox29 news poll showed that Oz and Fetterman were tied at about 46% apiece. InsiderAdvantage chairman Matt Towery explained that Oz’s surge was coming largely from self-described independent voters, who are breaking for Oz by twenty points.
“Oz is also picking an unusually high 14% of the African American vote and Asians and Hispanics prefer Oz[,] say they are voting for Oz by a wide margin,” Towery added. “Fetterman continues to enjoy a ten-point lead among female voters, while men prefer Oz at that same rate.”
The same poll found that Mastriano is also surging in the governor’s race. Shapiro leads Mastriano 49%-42%, with 6% of voters undecided, but Towery explained that Mastriano is experiencing a similar wave of support from self-described independents: 18% of independents are breaking for the Republican, the poll found.
Undecideds may heavily favor the Republicans in both races. Just 44% of voters have a favorable opinion of Democratic President Joe Biden, while nearly 55% are unfavorable toward Biden.
The new polling follows a poll earlier this month from the Trafalgar Group and The Daily Wire, which found that the race was much closer than mainstream polling had been showing. The poll found that Fetterman led Oz, 47.2%-44.8%, which was within the margin of error, with 4% undecided.
“We’ve always thought this race was a two or three-point race, and everybody else has finally come to join us on that conclusion,” Trafalgar Group founder and senior strategist Robert Cahaly told The Daily Wire. The race had tightened considerably because of concerns about Fetterman’s health and his record, especially on issues like crime. “The thought that your senator cannot hear spoken information and process it and make an argument is actually of great concern to people,” he said.
“What we’re seeing is people begin to realize what his record says … and people have a real problem with it,” Cahaly added. “Whether it’s his position to legalize drugs, including heroin, or getting rid of bail and letting people out of jails.”
Oz is also gaining a surprising amount of support from the black community. While most Republicans have garnered about 20% of black support, Oz has achieved some 30% support. “And that is completely unique to any other race that we’re watching,” Cahaly said.