Wednesday afternoon, Nate Silver, widely regarded as the mathematician with his finger squarely on the pulse of the American electorate, released a post in which he favored Ted Cruz to win the Wisconsin primary. Silver gave Cruz a 60% chance of winning the primary, with Donald Trump following at 39% and John Kasich a paltry 1%.
Silver has a natural distrust of polls, and noted, “Not all polls are created equal, so our forecasts are calculated based on weighted polling averages.” Still, this was his estimate as a polls-only forecast, rather than a polls-plus forecast, so given that Cruz has won key endorsements in the state, notably the Club for Growth PAC, Milwaukee radio host Charlie Sykes, and Assembly Majority Leader Jim Steineke, Cruz’s chances may be even better that 60%. The group Right Wisconsin endorsed Cruz on Monday.
Cruz’s chances will likely improve even more if Governor Scott Walker endorses him. Walker hinted on Wednesday he may do just that, saying, “If you’re someone who is uneasy with the front-runner right now, there’s really only one candidate. Ted Cruz is the only one who’s got a chance other than Donald Trump to win the nomination statistically, and my friend Gov. (John) Kasich cannot.”
According to the Texas Tribune, Cruz’s campaign has a county chair in virtually every county in Wisconsin.