News and Commentary

MERRY ECONOMY TO ONE AND ALL: New York Fed Nowcast Up To 4.0% Growth For Fourth Quarter

There’s more good news on the economy under President Trump, and it comes from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

On Friday, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported that the New York Fed Staff Nowcast stood at 4.0% for the fourth quarter of 2017, the highest level since the Nowcast was created two years ago. The Federal Reserve of New York stated that the upward estimate was triggered by revisions of earlier data.

Earlier in the week, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow was revised up to 3.3%.

The New York Fed starts reporting the Nowcast of GDP growth for a reference quarter roughly one month before the quarter begins, then stops updating it about one month after the quarter closes.

The New York model differs from the Atlanta model, according to the New York Fed, in this way: “The New York Fed Staff Nowcast is a straightforward application of the most advanced techniques developed in this literature. GDPNow adapts these techniques to mimic the methods used by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis to estimate real GDP growth.”

The economy seems to be surging. As recently as October 27, the New York Fed Staff Nowcast for the fourth quarter stood at 3.1%.