News and Commentary

Major Poll Says Trump’s 2020 Chances Looking Better And Better

A new major poll found that President Trump has the highest approval numbers of his presidency and his chances of reelection are virtually the same as former President Barack Obama’s were at the same time in his presidency.

The Marist poll, conducted July 15-17 among over 1,300 Americans, 33% of whom identified as Democrats and 27% Republican, found that President Trump’s approval rating had risen to 44%; the highest previous number for Trump in the Marist poll was 43% in February 2019. 90% of Republicans approved of Trump’s performance, with 42% of independents agreeing and only 7% of Democrats.

39% of national adults said they would definitely vote for Trump in 2020, with a whopping 89% of Republicans agreeing they would vote for him. 33% of independents agreed.

As Josh Kraushaar of National Journal noted, those numbers approximated Obama’s at virtually the same time in his tenure.

Kraushaar also noted another positive for Trump:

And yet another crucial statistic that looks rosy for Trump: 52% of respondents said they approved of his handling of the economy. That compares quite well with Obama, who only reached that level until August 2009, seven months after he took office; after that, Obama never again reached that level, yet was reelected.

That statistic, when paired with a report from Gallup on Monday that American’s economic confidence shot up again in July, makes Trump’s reelection chances better and better. Gallup wrote, “Americans’ confidence in the U.S. economy improved in July, with Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index rising seven points to +29. The latest index is the highest Gallup has measured since February.” Gallup added, “A majority, 54%, now perceive the economy is improving, up from 49% last month. Conversely, there has been an eight-percentage-point decline, from 45% to 37%, in the percentage saying it is getting worse.”

Trump’s strongest support came in the South, where 44% of respondents said they would vote for him, followed by the Midwest (39%), Northeast (36%) and the West (33%).

Age-wise, Trump was strongest with those between 39 and 54; 51% said they would definitely vote for him, as opposed to those aged 18-38, where only 23% agreed. 66% of Evangelical Christians said they would definitely vote for Trump. 55% of respondents from rural areas said they would vote for Trump, as opposed to only 31%of those from big cities.

One more positive note for Trump: when asked, “Overall, do you think the ideas being offered by the Democratic candidates running for president would generally move the country in the right direction, 43% of respondents said yes, while 46% said they would move the country in the wrong direction.”