As 2024 kicks off and presidential candidates prepare for the first round of voting, polls indicate that the country is headed for a rematch of the 2020 election.
Former President Donald Trump continues to dominate state and national polling averages as he stands at nearly 63% nationally in the GOP primary — over 50 points ahead of former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley (11%), who holds the second-place spot over Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (10.9%) in the Real Clear Politics average of national polls as of Wednesday afternoon. Tech Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy (4.3%), former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie (3.3%), and former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson (0.8%) round out the field of Republican candidates.
In Iowa, where voters will caucus in the Republican Party’s first 2024 contest on January 15, Trump leads DeSantis 51.3% to 18.6%, according to the RCP average. Haley sits in third in the state at 16.1%. In New Hampshire — the first-in-the-nation primary — Trump’s lead is slightly smaller as he sits at 46.3% to Haley’s 24.8%. DeSantis (9.5%) is currently polling in fourth place in the Granite State behind Christie (10.5%).
Biden, who is facing a primary challenge from self-help author Marianne Williamson and Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN), holds 69% of his party’s support compared to Williamson’s 8% and Phillips’ 3%, the RCP average of national polls shows.
Polls of a potential rematch between Trump and President Joe Biden show Trump in the lead, but most of the polls fall within the margin of error. The former president leads Biden 46.5% to 44.3% in the RCP average as of Wednesday afternoon. The most recent polls taken by Morning Consult and Economist/YouGov over last weekend show Trump leading by one point or tied with Biden.
A recent survey conducted by USA Today and Suffolk University showed support among two key demographics shifting from Biden to Trump. In the poll, Biden received 34% support among Hispanics while Trump pulled in 39%, a huge swing from Biden’s 65% support from Hispanics in the 2020 election, The Hill reported.
Meanwhile, Biden’s support among young voters has also tanked, according to the poll, which showed Trump leading among the demographic 37% to 35%. Biden won the young vote in 2020 by 24 points.
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Along with his polling lead, Trump has secured major endorsements from Republican leaders this week, gaining the support of Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR) and Rep. Tom Emmer (R-MN), which solidifies the former president’s support among House leadership. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) endorsed Trump in November and House Republican Conference Chairwoman Elise Stefanik (R-NY) announced her support for the former president even before his official announcement to run again in 2024.