The Associated Press called Arkansas for former Vice President Joe Biden at 10pm EST Tuesday night, handing Biden the win, the delegates, and the ability to notch a solid streak of victories across the deep south.
Arkansas, a solidly Republican state, was projected to go for a more moderate candidate but, as recently as February 22nd, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) was leading in the polls there, likely as a result of his massive victory in the Nevada caucuses, which gave the Vermont socialist an air of inevitability in the race for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination.
The polling masters at FiveThirtyEight considered the race still too close to call on Monday, as Biden edged up on Sanders following his nearly-40 point win in South Carolina.
Earlier this week, the “moderate” wing of the Democratic party consolidated behind Biden, with bigwigs (including, reportedly, Biden’s former boss, Barack Obama) pressuring candidates unlikely to snag the nomination to drop out, clearing the lane for Biden on the way into Super Tuesday.
The strategy worked, particularly in the south, where Biden racked up win after win on Tuesday night, besting Sanders across the board, from Virginia, across the Gulf Coast, and finally into the midwest. As for 10pm EST Tuesday night, Texas remains too close to call, but Biden put up more of a fight than expected, making Sanders’ margin of victory in the state much smaller than the Vermont socialist might have hoped.
As in other states, Biden was boosted by so-called “late decision” voters, who made up their minds to cast a ballot for the former Veep in just the last several days.
“The share of late deciders ranged from about a quarter of voters in Texas to roughly half in Minnesota, according to AP VoteCast surveys of voters in several Super Tuesday contests,” the outlet reported Tuesdaty. “Moderate and conservative voters in each state were slightly more likely than their liberal counterparts to delay a decision to the last minute.”
“The indecision shows voters grappling with their choices and reluctant to throw away their votes in a race that is changing quickly. Biden’s big win in South Carolina on Saturday revived his struggling campaign and helped push three of his rivals toward the exit,” AP said.
As in other states, in appears Arkansas voters were motivated largely by Biden’s chances against President Donald Trump, rather than any specific policy.
Oddly enough, former New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg was the real surprise in Arkansas, posting at least four points more than the 15% threshold necessary to take delegates away from the contest. At the time the Associated Press declared Biden the winner, Bloomberg was at nearly 20% in the state, less than a point behind Sanders, and more than ten points ahead of the next nearest candidate, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA).
Bloomberg got most of his support in Randolph county, in the far northeast corner of Arkansas.
Warren, her campaign told reporters Tuesday night, is taking her Super Tuesday losses in stride and will not drop out of the presidential race. Instead, the campaign plans to move forward into Michigan and Idaho, and has events planned in both states in the coming weeks. Warren is also placing ads in Illinois and other March 17th primary states in the hopes of collecting some delegates.
As of 10pm EST Tuesday night, Warren was tied for Super Tuesday delegate wins with Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI) a nearly non-existent candidate in the race for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination. Both women earned a single delegate.
President Donald Trump sailed to victory in the Arkansas Republican primary, snagging an astounding — but utterly unsurprising — 97% of the vote. His Republican primary challenger, Bill Weld, eked out 2.2% of the vote, just ahead of the “other” option on Arkansas’ ballots.