<p>Sen. <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/topic/jd-vance" target="_blank" rel="noopener">JD Vance</a> (R-OH), the 2024 Republican vice presidential nominee, discouraged people from trusting the polls — even when they favor his cause — and suggested betting markets have been a better gauge.</p>
<p>Less than two weeks out from Election Day, Vice President Kamala Harris has a slight edge in <a href="https://www.realclearpolling.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">national polls</a> and a small disadvantage in battleground state polls, while many <a href="https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president" target="_blank" rel="noopener">betting markets</a> show former President Donald Trump and Vance with more than a 10-point advantage.</p>
<p>Vance recently sat down for an interview with podcaster Theo Von, who explained his view that people betting money is a &#8220;good tracker in a capitalistic society&#8221; and pressed the VP candidate on his faith in the polls, noting how they have missed dating back to 2016.</p>
<p><iframe loading="lazy" title="YouTube video player" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/vd8mmTDDqAs?si=4RXzbMWkGxlMLUAR&amp;start=6490" width="560" height="315" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe></p>
<p>&#8220;You shouldn&#8217;t trust polls, whether they&#8217;re good for us or bad for us,&#8221; Vance said. &#8220;And here&#8217;s the reason you shouldn&#8217;t trust polls: &#8230; About 10 years ago, every 10th person you called to do a poll would answer. Now it&#8217;s about 1-in-30 people, okay?&#8221; he said.</p>
<p>Vance said &#8220;another important thing&#8221; concerns how Democrats, &#8220;especially if you&#8217;re a higher-education-level Democrat,&#8221; are far more willing to answer pollster questions whereas &#8220;if you&#8217;re like my family, if somebody called them — a stranger — and said, &#8216;Who are you going to vote for?,&#8217; they would say, &#8216;F you,&#8217; and hang up the phone.&#8221;</p>
<p><b><a href="https://www.amiracist.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.amiracist.com/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1729077615157000&amp;usg=AOvVaw17Kprl74oE9DYOLREdiBPU">MATT WALSH’S ‘AM I RACIST?’ COMING TO DAILYWIRE+ OCT. 28</a></b></p>
<p>Although pollsters weigh their results to try and account for underrepresented groups, Vance emphasized that he believes it is &#8220;very hard to get an accurate sample to give you any sense of what is going on&#8221; with Harris supporters being more responsive to pollsters than Trump backers.</p>
<p>Vance explained that he witnessed how the polls could be off-target during the U.S. Senate race he won in 2022.</p>
<p>&#8220;There were all these public polls that said &#8230; the race was tied or maybe we&#8217;d even lose by a few points and the pollster that I had who just polled for my campaign — he&#8217;s actually Trump&#8217;s pollster, too, and very smart guy — and he said, &#8216;Look, the reason these polls are wrong is because they&#8217;re not reaching voters who don&#8217;t like to answer polls and those voters are going heavily for you.&#8217; So I said, &#8216;Okay, well how much are we going to win by?&#8217; And he said, &#8216;You&#8217;re going to win by 6 points.&#8217; And we won by 7 points, right? So he was much more accurate than the public pollers,&#8221; Vance said.</p>
<p>Vance posited that public polls that get published in a newspaper article might cost between $10,000 and $20,000, when it would really require between $60,000 and $70,000 to get an accurate sample with &#8220;thousands and thousands&#8221; of people being called for the survey.</p>
<p>Referring to a betting market chart that Von had displayed, one from Kalshi that showed Trump with a 57%-43% lead over Harris in the 2024 presidential election, Vance said, &#8220;Honestly, yeah, I think that chart&#8217;s about right. I think that we&#8217;ve probably got about a 60% chance of winning.&#8221;</p>
<p>In summing up his view, Vance said &#8220;don&#8217;t buy&#8221; the polls, even if they are showing a win for him and Trump because it might dissuade people from voting and something might happen after which Harris supporters may not want to answer pollster questions.</p>
<p>&#8220;So you just can&#8217;t trust this stuff,&#8221; Vance said. &#8220;You&#8217;ve got to assume that you just got to work your ass off. That&#8217;s what we&#8217;re trying to do. You know, President Trump and I are doing multiple events a day at this point, and if you want — in my view — if you want to secure the border, have common sense economic policy, then Donald Trump is your man.&#8221;</p>

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JD Vance: Don’t Trust The Polls