Hurricane Milton Forecast Shows Up To 15 Feet Of Storm Surge In Tampa Bay

Hurricane Milton, which is expected to hit Florida later this week, could bring storm surge up to 15 feet above ground level in the Tampa Bay area.

The National Hurricane Center predicted on Monday peak water levels as high as 10-15 feet anywhere from the Anclote River to Englewood, as well as in Tampa Bay. Other places along the Florida coastline and beyond may also get storm surge between 1 and 10 feet above ground level.

4pm CDT Oct 7th Key Messages for Category 5 #Hurricane #Milton:

Hurricane Warnings & Storm Surge Warnings in effect for parts of W coast of Florida Peninsula. This is an extremely life-threatening situation. Please follow advice by local officials & evacuate if told so.… pic.twitter.com/E5BwcSi1aL

— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) October 7, 2024

A “combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline,” the agency said, adding that the heights above ground level shown on its forecast map depicted what the peak could be at high tide.

Milton strengthened into a Category 5 hurricane on Monday as it moved over the Gulf of Mexico toward Florida. While the storm may weaken before it makes an expected landfall by Wednesday evening or Thursday morning, Milton is still expected to be a powerful hurricane when it does.

Officials issued various evacuation orders across Florida’s Gulf Coast, including in the Tampa Bay area where millions of people reside. Shelters have also been opened in a number of counties for those seeking refuge.

Hurricane Milton may double the flooding across Tampa observed when Hurricane Helene made landfall farther north in Florida’s Big Bend region as a Category 4 hurricane less than two weeks ago. Water levels in that storm reached more than 7 feet above normal tides and broke local records, according to the Tampa Bay Times. The Associated Press reported the storm surge from Helene killed 12 people near Tampa.

The National Weather Service warned on Monday that if Hurricane Milton stays on its current track — meaning landfall could happen around Tampa or somewhere else between the Big Bend and Fort Myers —  it will be the “worst storm” to impact the Tampa area in more than 100 years.

“I can say this without any dramatization whatsoever: If you choose to stay in one of those evacuation areas, you are going to die,” Tampa Mayor Jane Castor, a Democrat, said during an interview on CNN on Monday.

Tampa Mayor Jane Castor: “I can say this without any dramatization whatsoever: If you choose to stay in one of those evacuation areas, you are going to die.” pic.twitter.com/CP0VmK3TUC

— Kaitlan Collins (@kaitlancollins) October 8, 2024

Republican Governor Ron DeSantis has declared a state of emergency in dozens of Florida counties and suspended tolls to assist with evacuations. President Joe Biden approved an emergency declaration, unlocking federal resources to help with hurricane response efforts.