A historian with a perfect record of predicting the results of American presidential elections for 40 years stated that despite the polls, President Biden still has a lead over former President Trump — but cautioned he won’t make a prediction until August.
American University professor Allan Lichtman, who has infallibly predicted every election since 1984, created along with Russian mathematical geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok a prediction model of 13 keys which they published in a 1981 paper, later expanding the number of keys to 13. Lichtman then published his book “The Keys to the White House,” later reissued as “Predicting the Next President: The Keys To The White House.”
“A lot of things would have to go wrong [for the election keys] to go against Biden,” Lichtman told Market Watch. “But they could. I am very careful in not making a prediction.” He said that Biden currently leads Trump in five of the keys, while Trump leads in three, with the rest undecided.
The 13 keys include:
- Midterm gains: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in House than after the previous midterm elections.
- No primary contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
- Incumbent seeking re-election: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
- No third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
- Strong short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
- Strong long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
- Major policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
- No social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
- No scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
- No foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
- Major foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
- Charismatic incumbent: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
- Uncharismatic challenger: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
Lichtman said Biden led Trump in key# 2, as Biden has not faced a serious challenger in his own party; key #3, as he is the incumbent; key #6, claiming the long-term economic trend is headed upward; key # 7, that Biden has made major changes, and #13, explaining that a challenger should have broadly bipartisan support or be a national hero in the way former President Dwight Eisenhower was after World war II.
Trump leads in keys 1, 11, and 12, Lichtman opined, pointing out (#1) that the Democrats do not hold more seats in House than after the previous midterm elections; (#11) Biden has not had a major foreign policy win, and (#12) Biden is neither charismatic nor a national hero.
Key #9 would depend on the American people feeling that the Biden administration is tainted by a major scandal. Lichtman argued that the Trump campaign has not been able to convince the general public, not just Republicans, of a major scandal involving the Biden administration.
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“Here is the secret to being a successful forecaster,” Lichtman said. “The most important thing is keeping your own personal views out of it. I’ve called about as many Republican wins and Democratic wins. In 2016 I was virtually alone in predicting a win for Donald Trump.”