A new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll, conducted by the highly-respected Selzer & Co. of Des Moines between October 26-29, found that President Trump was leading former Vice President Joe Biden in Iowa by seven points, 48%-41%, a huge change, considering that in September, the same pollsters found the two candidates were tied at 47%.
“It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points,” the Des Moines Register noted, adding, “J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co., said while men are more likely to support Trump and women to support Biden, the gender gap has narrowed, and independents have returned to supporting the president, a group he won in 2016.”
Selzer stated, “The president is holding demographic groups that he won in Iowa four years ago, and that would give someone a certain level of comfort with their standing. There’s a consistent story in 2020 to what happened in 2016.” She cautioned, “Neither candidate hits 50%, so there’s still some play here.”
In 2016, Trump won the state over Democrat Hillary Clinton by 9.5%, 51.2% to 41.7%.
The same poll found Iowa GOP Senator Joni Ernst moving ahead of Democrat Theresa Greenfield, 46% -42%, in a crucial race that may determine whether the GOP can hold the Senate.
Fivethirtyeight.com ranked numerous polls in May 2020 and gave the Selzer poll a ranking of “A+,” indicating that the poll had done an excellent job accurately reflecting the views of areas it polled.
The Daily Wire noted on October 26 that polls in battleground states seemed quite similar to 2016:
The polls in 2020 are nearly identical to those in 2016, according to Real Clear Politics, which keeps a running average of all polls. In the top battleground states — North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Arizona and Wisconsin — Biden currently holds a four-point lead in the average. In 2016, Clinton held a 3.5-point lead. That means there’s just a .5-point difference this time around.
Trafalgar Group chief pollster Robert Cahaly commented:
What we’ve noticed is that these polls are predominantly missing the hidden Trump vote, what [we] refer to as the shy Trump voter. There is a clear feeling among conservatives and people that are for the president that they’re not interested in sharing their opinions so readily on the telephone. We’ve seen people be beat up, harassed, doxed, have their houses torn up because they expressed political opinions that are not in line with the politically correct establishment. And so, these people are more hesitant to … participate in polls. So if you’re not compensating for this, if you’re not trying to give them a poll that they can participate in … you’re not going to get honest answers.
The GOP currently controls the Senate, with 53 Republican senators. But because there are 23 GOP seats at risk in 2020 as opposed to only 12 held by Democrats, every Senate race is crucial for the GOP to win if they are to hold the Senate. If the GOP loses three seats and there is a 50/50 split, the vice president would break the tie, meaning that if Biden wins, the GOP would need 51 seats to control the Senate.