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Everything You Need To Know About Super Tuesday

   DailyWire.com
Hill Street Studios

Today’s the big day — so big they call it Super.

It’s Super Tuesday, when voters in 14 states will cast ballots for their candidate of choice in the 2020 Democratic presidential primaries. The states: Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virginia.

For the first time in a Democratic nomination process this year, a substantial number of pledged delegates will be at stake — 1,357 of them. Should Sanders run the table on Super Tuesday, he’d take a significant lead in the delegate count. But most polls are showing a tight struggle between Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), former Vice President Biden and upstart Michael Bloomberg. If the delegates are equally divided among the three, the contest for the nomination could be lengthy.

In an interesting twist, the odds that no candidate gathers the needed number of delegates by the Democratic National Convention rose to 3 in 5, and now tops the nomination forecast from FiveThirtyEight.com. In that forecast, Sanders has a 3 in 10 chance, Biden a 1 in 9 chance, and all the rest are less than 1 in 100 long shots. Because the delegates will be allocated in proportion to each candidate’s share of the vote, the odds that no candidate wins a majority is rising, and that means a nominee would be selected during the Democratic National Committee convention in July.

Polls close at 7 p.m. or 8 p.m. local time, so with 14 states all across the country, it’ll be a long night. But here’s what to look for in each state as the night wears on.

The race: Biden, 77, seeks the middle road, banking on his connection to his former boss, Barack Obama. Sanders, a Democratic socialist, is offering government health care and free college tuition for all, paid for by taxes on the so-called wealthy. And Bloomberg is somewhere in between, stressing his terms as mayor of America’s biggest city and a pragmatic take on how to get things done.

And in one last possible game changer, Biden was endorsed by former South Bend, Ind., Mayor Peter Buttigieg, Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) and former Texas Rep. Robert “Beto” O’Rourke (D), all of who ran for the nomination but dropped out.

Let the games begin.

EAST

Virginia (Voting ends 7PM EST)

Virginia is one of the first key states for Democratic hopefuls. Sanders has a lead in the state, according to the Real Clear Politics (RCP) average of all polls, but the race has been getting tighter in recent days, with Biden and Bloomberg picking up steam. In the latest RCP averages, Sanders leads with 25%, followed by Bloomberg at 19.5% and Biden at 18.5%.

The state’s senator, Tim Kaine, recently endorsed Biden, which could help him in the final days. But Sanders and Bloomberg have both held Virginia events in the days leading up to the primary. In another twist, Virginia is holding an “open primary,” which means any registered voter can participate, meaning independents and Republicans can cast ballots.

Sanders, it should be noted, lost the 2016 primary in Virginia to eventual nominee Hillary Clinton.

North Carolina (Voting ends 7:30PM EST)

The Buckeye State is next in importance, and from all indications, it could go any direction.

The latest NBC News–Marist poll released Sunday shows Sanders with a tiny 2-point lead over Biden, well within the margin of error for the poll. Bloomberg is in third, but Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), once a front-runner for the nomination, is not far behind. Another poll, this one from Meredith College, shows the race even tighter, with Sanders at 19.5%, Biden at 17.9%, and Bloomberg less than a point behind at 17%.

Biden said on Sunday that he expects to pull out a win in North Carolina, adding that the nominee will need to do well here to have a chance in the general election against President Trump. The state has 110 delegates, making it the third-biggest prize of the day.

Vermont, Massachusetts, Maine (Voting ends 7PM EST in VT, 8PM EST in MA and MN)

The rest of the East Coast states get pretty predictable — sort of. Sanders is from Vermont, Warren from Massachusetts. Maine went hard for Sanders in 2016.

But there’s always a twist. Some 10,000 people turned out for a Sanders rally in Boston on Saturday, and a Suffolk University–WBZ–Boston Globe poll released Sunday showed Warren and Sanders in a statistical tie. That has prompted Warren to spend time in the state to make sure she doesn’t lose there, taking her away from other important states. Massachusetts holds the fourth-most delegates of the day at 91.

In Vermont, which holds 16 delegates, Sanders looks like a shoo in. He holds a 38-point lead over his opponents, with 51% in one of the latest polls, and he has been endorsed by Vermont’s two top Democrats in the state, Sen. Patrick Leahy and Rep. Peter Welch. Sanders, it should be noted, won the 2016 primary there with more than 86% of the vote.

Maine, with 24 delegates, also looks to be leaning toward Sanders. There aren’t many polls from the state, but he decisively defeated Clinton there in 2016 and expects to do so again on Tuesday.

CENTRAL

Texas (Voting ends 9PM EST)

The Lone Star State, like Virginia, is turning purple on its way to blue. Once a Republican stronghold, an influx of young liberals is changing the demographics of the state, and it offers the second-most delegates of the day — 228.

Right now, Sanders holds a nearly 9-point lead in Texas, according to a RealClearPolitics average of polls, averages 29.7% support to Biden’s 20.8% and Bloomberg’s 18 percent. Among Latinos, Sanders holds an even bigger lead, according to a Univision poll released last week.

Biden has stacked up a slew of endorsements, which could be key. He spent Monday in the state, holding events in Houston and Dallas.

Also-ran Warren has garnered the backing of former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julián Castro, a former mayor of San Antonio who may turn up again as a running mate for the eventual nominee after dropping out of the presidential race.

This one will be a big one. Watch who wins here.

Minnesota (Voting ends 9PM EST)

This is the home state of Sen. Amy Klobuchar, who dropped out of the race on Monday (weird timing). She’s expected to endorse Sanders, which may change the outcome. In the latest Minnesota Public Radio–Star Tribune Minnesota poll last week, Klobuchar led Sanders 29-23. Warren, at 11%, was the only other candidate in double digits. But in another poll by the Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon, it went Klobuchar 29, Sanders 23, Warren 11, Biden 8, Bloomberg 3.

Sanders won the 2016 Minnesota caucuses — and the state’s 75 delegates — and has been endorsed by the Democratic media darling Rep. Ilhan Omar. The Democratic socialist held a rally Monday night featuring Omar, as well as a concert by Nathaniel Rateliff and the Night Sweats.

Alabama (Voting ends 8PM EST)

This state is so up in the air that five candidates visited Alabama on Sunday to commemorate the 55th anniversary of “Bloody Sunday,” when civil rights marchers crossed the Edmund Pettus Bridge in Selma and were beaten by police.

Bloomberg wasn’t all that popular. Parishioners at a black church in Selma, Alabama, the Brown Chapel AME Church, stood and turned their backs on former New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg as he spoke on Sunday morning.

Biden, who is banking on the black vote, has endorsements from members of the Alabama congressional delegation, including Sen. Doug Jones and Rep. Terri Sewell. But with major candidates dropping out, including Buttigieg, the state — and its 52 delegates — is up in the air.

Arkansas (Voting ends 8:30PM EST)

Multi-billionaire Bloomberg has been dumping cash into the state, which he thinks he can win. “In the sole poll conducted in Arkansas, the Talk Business and Politics-Hendrix College poll released last week, Bloomberg held a slight lead with a 1-point edge over Biden,” The Hill reported. Former candidate Buttigieg and Sanders weren’t far behind.

But Biden’s making a play for the state’s 31 delegates. “His campaign boasted an endorsement Sunday by former Arkansas Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D), and Biden’s wife, Jill Biden, spoke at an event in Little Rock that same day,” said The Hill.

Sadly, RCP has no polls of the state. Arkansas could go any way on Tuesday.

Tennessee (Voting ends 8PM EST)

Biden won the South Carolina primary, key to keeping his flagging campaign alive. Biden won big among Democrats on Saturday, taking 48% of the vote in the primary. Sanders lagged well behind in second, pulling in just 19.9%. Billionaire Tom Steyer came in third with 11.3%, then promptly dropped out. Buttigieg came in fourth at 8.4%, and Warren finished fifth at just 7.1%.

Biden’s win in the first Southern state to hold a primary could show his strength there, but again, as with many states, there’s just too little polling to suggest where things will go on Tuesday.

But if Biden pulls off a win here, look for him to have a good night. And, it should be noted, Sanders lost to Clinton in Tennessee in 2016 by a hefty margin. Up for grabs are 64 delegates.

Oklahoma (Voting ends 8PM EST)

On to Oklahoma, where it should be doubly noted that Sanders beat Clinton in 2016.

But Bloomberg has poured millions into the state, which he thinks he can win. One of the most recent polls put Biden at the top with 21.2%, followed by Bloomberg at 19.8% and Sanders at 19.3%.

But state pollster Bill Shappard told News on 6 in Tulsa that voters “have changed their mind a lot, and they’re going to change them again.” According to one poll, nearly 43% of the respondents said they will — or might — change their mind before casting a vote, the site reported.

Up for grabs are 37 delegates.

MOUNTAIN

Colorado (Voting ends 9PM EST)

Bloomberg has poured tons of cash into this progressive state, more than $5 million into the Denver market and another $1 million in the Colorado Springs-Pueblo market in TV ads, Colorado Public Radio reported. Sanders has dumped in about half a million, followed by Warren at just more than $200,000.

Sanders, it should be noted, knocked off Clinton in the Colorado caucuses in 2016, but he’ll have a harder time Tuesday securing the 67 pledged delegates.

In one of the most recent polls, Sanders leads at 27%, with Warren at 15%, Buttigieg at 12%, Biden at 11%, and Bloomberg at 11%. Another poll put Sanders at 34%, Warren at 20%, Bloomberg at 14%, Buttigieg at 14% and Biden at 10%.

Utah (Voting ends 10PM EST)

Sanders holds a 9-point lead over his opponents, according to a Deseret News–Hinckley Institute of Politics poll released last week. Sanders had support from 28% of those polled, topping Bloomberg at 19%, Buttigieg at 18 and Warren at 15.

That’s right, Biden is in fourth place in the state, where, it should be noted, Sanders soundly defeated Clinton in 2016.

There are 29 delegates at stake.

PACIFIC

California (Voting ends 11PM EST)

Finally, after midnight or later, results will roll in from California, the jewel of the night. Up for grabs are 415 delegates.

Sanders has held a wide lead in all polls of the Golden State and held a rally Sunday in San Jose while his opponents were in Alabama for the anniversary of the civil rights march in Selma. Biden is planning to travel in California on Super Tuesday.

The RCP average of California polls puts Sanders 17 points ahead of Warren, whose flagging campaign could be revived with a second-place finish here. Biden is in third at 13% and Bloomberg in fourth. Biden has pulled some big endorsements, including Sen. Dianne Feinstein.

Meanwhile, a Los Angeles Times-Berkley IGS poll released last week put Sanders at 34% support, with Warren in second at 17%. If the poll holds, it’s likely to be a big night for Bernie.

 

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