More good news for the GOP and the Senate: Nate Silver’s fivethirtyeight.com has moved the race in Nevada between incumbent GOP Senator Dean Heller and Democrat Jacky Rosen to Lean Republican, giving Heller a 3-in-5 chance of winning and Rosen a 2-in-5 chance. Heller’s forecasted vote share is 49.5%, while Rosen’s is 47.9%.
Of the ten polls taken since September 1 that Silver’s group mentions in their data, six favored Heller while four favored Rosen. The largest margin favoring Heller, a seven-point bulge, came from the Emerson College poll conducted from October 10 through October 12; the largest margin favoring Rosen, a four-point bulge, came from the CNN/SSRs poll conducted from September 25 through September 29.
.png)
.png)
