The 2026 midterm elections are still a year away, but Republicans and Democrats are already in full election mode as an important U.S. House seat is up for grabs on Tuesday.
Democrats are optimistic their candidate will make some noise on December 2, when votes are counted for the special U.S. House election that will determine who represents Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District. The seat became empty after Republican Rep. Mark Green retired on July 20, shortly after voting to pass President Donald Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Bill.”
It’s a district that Democrats have no business winning and one that Republicans are counting on to help maintain their House majority come the 2026 midterm elections. For an off-year election in a deep red state, the stakes can’t get any higher, so here’s everything you need to know ahead of the December 2 election.
The Candidates
Republican candidate Matt Van Epps, 39, easily won the crowded GOP primary in October after an endorsement from President Trump. Van Epps is an Army helicopter pilot and combat veteran with years of experience in the Tennessee state government. He served as the deputy chief operating officer for the Tennessee Governor’s Office. He was then tapped by Republican Governor Bill Lee to run the Tennessee Department of General Services, where he “oversaw statewide procurement, facilities management, and essential services that touch every department in Tennessee government.”
During the Republican primary, Van Epps was criticized by his opponents for working to implement strict COVID lockdown measures in the early days of the pandemic and was nicknamed “Tennessee Fauci.” That line of attack on Van Epps was ineffective, and he won the GOP primary by more than 25 points.
Matt Van Epps for Congress
Van Epps describes himself as a “conservative warrior” who is focused on “advancing President Trump’s America First agenda.” Along with snagging Trump’s endorsement, the Republican candidate also boasts endorsements from Governor Lee, former Rep. Green, and Ohio Republican Rep. Jim Jordan.
Democrats picked Tennessee state Rep. Aftyn Behn as their nominee for the 7th district special election. Behn, 36, has served in the Tennessee state House since 2023. The Tennessee Democrat was dubbed the “AOC of Tennessee” by Democratic activist David Hogg, referring to leftist New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. After socialist Zohran Mamdani’s stunning victory in the New York City mayor’s race, Democrats are hoping that the party’s younger and more radical candidates can win, even in deep-red states.
Aftyn Behn, Tennessee General Assembly
Other prominent Democrats have come alongside Behn, campaigning for her in Nashville. Last week, former Vice President Kamala Harris made a surprise appearance with Behn, returning to the Democratic campaign trail for the first time since her 2024 election loss.
Behn is not hiding from her leftist views. Earlier this year, she followed and filmed ICE agents and Tennessee Highway Patrol officers as they made immigration arrests around Nashville. She has called Trump’s immigration operations “state-sponsored fear and violence.” Behn also voiced support for burning down police stations during the 2020 George Floyd riots. She recently refused to address the controversial social media post where she stated, “Good morning, especially to the 54% of Americans that believe burning down a police station is justified.”
After three Christian schoolchildren and three staff members were killed by a trans-identifying shooter in Nashville in 2023, Behn said she was “fearful” for “trans communities.” Behn has also been slammed for saying in the past that she hates Nashville, parts of which she’s now running to represent.
The Location
The 7th district sits in the western part of what is considered Middle Tennessee. It spans from the state’s border with Kentucky, through north and west Nashville, and all the way to the Alabama state line. Voters in the 7th district went for President Donald Trump by 22 points in 2024, and the district has been safely in the hands of Republicans and Rep. Mark Green, who represented the 7th from 2019 until his surprise retirement earlier this year.
TN 7th Congressional District, TN Secretary of State
The various demographics inside the 7th district will be a key aspect to watch when results come in on Tuesday night. Much of District 7 covers rural areas, where Van Epps is expected to perform well, but it also covers north and west Nashville, which is far more liberal than the surrounding area. Behn will have to perform exceptionally well in those areas of Nashville and will need a high Democratic turnout for a chance to pull off an upset.
Last month’s primary election showed that turnout could be an issue for Democrats. Behn pulled off a narrow primary victory, receiving just over 8,600 votes. Van Epps, meanwhile, pulled in over 19,000 votes in the primary as Republican turnout far outpaced that of the Democrats.
If Republicans show up in the counties surrounding Nashville and the more rural areas of the state as they have in recent House elections, Van Epps will likely cruise to victory. Tennessee’s 7th district includes areas such as part of wealthy Williamson County, which Trump won by more than 30 points in 2024, and rural Robertson County, which Trump won by 40 points.
The House Majority PAC, which is connected to House Democratic leadership, believes that Democratic wins in New Jersey and Virginia earlier this month show that “no Republican-held seat is safe.” Democrats are also hoping that Behn can reach independents and moderate Republicans with her focus on affordability and the economy.
The Spending
Republicans and Democrats have poured millions of dollars into the special House race, with Behn’s campaign raising over $1 million between October 1 and November 12, NBC News reported. In that same timeframe, Van Epps raised $591,000. Outside groups have also dumped millions of dollars on the race, mostly in support of Van Epps and in opposition to Behn. The Trump-aligned MAGA Inc. has reportedly spent over $1 million on the race. The conservative group Club for Growth has also waded into the special House race to boost Van Epps.
Behn’s campaign has spent more than half a million dollars on advertisements, while the Democrat-aligned House Majority PAC and Your Community PAC have spent a combined $950,000 on additional ads, according to the Nashville Banner.
The Expectations
Earlier this month, Cook Political Report moved Tennessee’s 7th district from “solid” Republican to “lean” Republican. Under its summary of the race, Cook Political Report states, “Sources roundly agree that Nashville Democrats are ravenous at the prospect of an upset, while many Republican voters are unaware an election is even taking place.”
Tennessee Republican Party Chair Scott Golden told WPLN News last week that the race will come down to how many Republican voters show up to the polls. Golden stressed that the special election date and early voting running up against the Thanksgiving holiday make the GOP campaign’s job even tougher.
“Anytime you have a special election that is bracketed by the Thanksgiving holiday, you can’t afford to take a day off,” he said. “I think if there’s concern, it’s just that people aren’t aware that they have the opportunity to vote right now.”
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