Democratic support among minority voters is slipping, according to polling and analytics from Gallup.
While Democrats still hold leads over the GOP in support among black and Hispanic voters, the Democratic Party’s edge is at a record low. While the gap has narrowed among those demographics, the gap in education groups has surged.
In 2023, Democrats had the largest lead over Republicans that either party possessed in any demographic in non-Hispanic black adults, according to Gallup. Sixty-six percent of black voters identified as Democrats or Democratic-leaning. Just 19% of black voters sided with Republicans.
That 47-point difference is a record low for the poll, however. The gap has never been that narrow since Gallup began its poll in 1999. In 2020, Democrats had a 66-point advantage over Republicans among black voters, with 77% siding with Democrats to the GOP’s 11%.
Gallup mapped a similar trend among Hispanic adults. In 2023, Democrats enjoyed a 12-point advantage over the GOP among voters in the demographic. That is the closest the gap has been since 2011 when Gallup began regularly polling in Spanish as well as English. The parties tended to have roughly equal support in the demographic 1999 to 2009, however, according to Gallup.
While the gap has narrowed among certain minority groups, the gap has widened in certain education groups, with those with more education tending to favor Democrats and those with lower levels of education favoring Republicans.
Voters with no college or some college identify as Republican or Republican-leaning about half the time, whereas about 40% say the same for Democrats. Among those with a post graduate degree, Democrats have a 29-point advantage over Republicans, 60% to 31%.
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The insights into the American electorate come as President Joe Biden struggles to top former President Donald Trump, the GOP frontrunner, in the polls.
In a hypothetical Trump v. Biden matchup in the general election, the former president has been outpolling the current president across several polls. The RealClearPolitics polling average shows Trump leading Biden by more than two points, 46.7 to 44.6.
The most recent poll in the average, a survey by NBC News, shows Biden polling at the lowest approval rating over his term as the president faces stiff opposition from voters. Just 37% of voters approve of the job Biden is doing as president versus 60% who disapprove, according to the poll.