CNN’s top polling analyst said on Tuesday that Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump was still “very much” in the presidential race in terms of how close he is to Vice President Kamala Harris in current polling.
Harry Enten said during the segment that looking back at the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, the polls were significantly off in representing Trump’s support across the country.
“So, August 13th, how far were the polls off in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin? And this is in 2016 and 2020,” he said. “Take a look here, in 2016, the average poll in those states that I mentioned, those Great Lake battleground states, Trump was underestimated by nine points on average at this point in 2016. How about 2020? It wasn’t a one-off. Look at this, he was underestimated by five points on average.”
Enten noted that Harris’ alleged lead over Trump in those states was lower, only four points, than how much Trump was underestimated by polls.
“The bottom line is this. If you have any idea, if you’re a Kamala Harris fan and you want to rip open the champagne bottle, pop that cork, do not do it,” he said. “Donald Trump is very much in this race. If we have a polling shift, like we’ve seen in prior years from now until the final result, Donald Trump would actually win. I’m not saying that’s going to happen, but I am saying that he is very much in this ballgame based upon where he is right now. And compare that to where he was in prior years.”
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Enten further noted that just because Harris has the momentum and enthusiasm at the moment, that does not actually translate to people showing up to vote for her.
Even though she had better numbers than Biden, the number of voters who said that they were definitely going to cast a vote for her was lower than Biden by one point while Trump has seen that number increase by two points in the same time span.
“So, the bottom line here is, yes, there may be more enthusiasm for Kamala Harris, but the fact is we’re not seeing that necessarily translate in the almost certain to vote,” he said, later adding: “And one little other note: Donald Trump is more popular today than he was on August 13th in either 2020 or 2016. So, the bottom line is, yes, Kamala Harris is doing better in the polls, but there’s a long way to go. The polls can shift. The almost certain to vote hasn’t actually shifted and Donald Trump is more popular than he was at either 2016 or 2020 at this point.”
WATCH:
3 caution points for Democrats…
1. Trump wins if the difference between the polls at this point & the result matches what we saw in 2016 or 2020.
2. Trump’s more popular now than at this pt in 2016 or 2020.
3. Dems don’t say they’re more likely to vote now than in May pic.twitter.com/E0zfPCyKS9— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) August 13, 2024
