Bloomberg spoke to financial experts about the possibility of a recession in the near future, and their general reaction was … nahhhh.
John Stoltzfus, chief investment strategist at Oppenheimer Asset Management, “There’s another story out there that’s gathering the attention of investors. The fundamentals remain intact in the sense of the U.S. economy, which continues to show us sustainability. The slowing does not appear to us to be recessionary.”
Michael Antonelli, institutional equity sales trader and managing director at Robert W. Baird & Co. explained, “If you think about the last month of market action, it was dominated by trade headlines, but in the background was pretty stable economic data absent of manufacturing. All the noise is masking that the economy, by and large, is doing OK.”
Dennis DeBusschere, head of portfolio strategy at Evercore ISI, added that if the manufacturing sector doesn’t plunge downward any more, “which seems like a much higher-probability event than many expect, an extended reversal of the safety panic should be expected.”
Kate Warne, an investment strategist at Edward Jones shares: “The earnings outlook is actually one of the things that is positive for stocks going forward. Expectations are a little higher for next year and I think that’s appropriate because we begin to get into a period where companies aren’t facing such strong comparisons from the previous year.” She added, “Companies are continuing to see good demand for their products even though they’re also facing rising costs.”
Bloomberg writes that those concerned about the currently low treasury yields should calm down, as “they’re also low enough to give cover to equity multiples that are frequently cited by bears as being too high.”
In mid-August, Democratic presidential candidate and former congressman John Delaney was asked if he thought a recession was imminent; he answered, “I hope it’s not. You know, it feels like some Democrats are cheering on a recession because they want to stick it to Trump. I don’t want a recession because I don’t want these workers in here to face a recession, but I worry that Trump’s policies are bringing one on … I’m not going to name names, but you just get a sense, like my position is very clear, which is I hope a recession doesn’t happen.”
Delaney may very well have had a point; in July, Senator Elizabeth Warren stoked fears of a recession, writing in a Medium post, “Warning lights are flashing. Whether it’s this year or next year, the odds of another economic downturn are high ― and growing. Congress and regulators should act immediately to tamp down these threats before it’s too late.”
In August, former congressman Beto Rourke echoed, “I’m afraid that this president is driving the global economy and our economy into recession.”
Jeff Weaver, a senior adviser to Senator Bernie Sanders, said in August, “I think what everybody understands now is that we’re coming to the end of the Obama recovery and we’re now about to enter the Trump recession.”