Former Vice President Joe Biden may be on the bottom in New Hampshire — so far out of first place that he and his wife, Dr. Jill Biden, will be leaving the state Tuesday afternoon, before the polls even close — but he’s not out of the race just yet.
According to most polls analyzing the next several contests, Biden is poised for a comeback, but only if he can hold on to his current numbers — and that’s turning out to be a big ask for the former Vice President’s flailing campaign.
Data analytics site, FiveThirtyEight, is crunching the numbers from the next caucus, set to take place in Nevada on February 22nd, and Biden still leads by two points, echoing polls from as far back as November. Real Clear Politics has the bead on Biden on Super Tuesday, and currently has the former Veep winning most states, with the notable exception of deep-blue California. CBS News has Biden in the lead in South Carolina.
Initially, Biden’s campaign admitted that they would not win Iowa or New Hampshire — two states that went for Sanders back in 2016 — but that they would take Nevada and South Carolina.
Biden’s lead, however, is contracting dramatically in Nevada; Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) has been gaining on the Biden since early January. At one point, back in November, when Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) was still doing remarkably well and Sanders was still in the background, Biden lead the field in Nevada by an astounding ten points, putting him well out of the reach of both progressives. Even as recently as January 9th — just over one month ago — Biden was dominating in Nevada, with six points on Sanders. Since then, though, Sanders has surged, and, fresh off a narrow loss in Iowa and a likely win in New Hampshire, the Vermont socialist has the wind at his back.
In South Carolina, a state Biden once led by more than 20 points, he’s still up, but his lead has been cut in half. In just the last week, Biden lost five points, according to Reuters, ceding ground not just to Sanders, but to former New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg, who is also on a national surge after doubling his advertising budget.
“That level of support [in the most recent Reuters poll] was the lowest recorded for Biden by the Reuters/Ipsos poll since the former vice president entered the race last April to challenge Republican President Donald Trump in this November’s election,” the outlet reported.
Biden is skipping out on celebrating in New Hampshire to head to South Carolina, hoping he can shore up support there before having to turn his signs on Nevada.
“I’m going down to two very diverse states next, and I expect to do very well there. And, still, nationally, I’m still leading in all polls that I’m aware of, No. 1. No. 2, the endorsements keep coming in,” Biden told reporters Monday, when news of his trip broke. “We just talked to the folks down South Carolina, they’re pretty excited. So we are going there. Going to stop there probably on the way to Nevada.”