If you want to know who’s going to win the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination, follow the money.
“The fastest riser is a candidate who did not even run in New Hampshire or in the Iowa caucus: Michael Bloomberg,” Bookies.com, a primarily sports betting-focused website, writes. “Former Vice President Joe Biden’s odds are in free-fall after his dreadful fifth-place showing in New Hampshire.”
Back in November, Bloomberg’s odds were non-existent. Now, he’s got a one in three chance (33.4%) to take the Democratic presidential nomination, according to Real Clear Politics (RCP), which keeps a running tally of the odds based on several betting sites.
“Bloomberg, the former New York City mayor, shortens to +450 and is closing on Sanders fast. Skipping the first two states was an unconventional strategy, one which has never worked before, but it’s hard to imagine a way it could’ve worked out better for Bloomberg thanks to chaos in Iowa and a tighter vote than expected in New Hampshire,” Bookies.com writes.
Bloomberg is now in third place in national polling. Not bad for a guy who hasn’t been on the ballot yet. But there could be trouble brewing: Recently unearthed comments amplified his troubled past with racist police tactics and he even seemed to endorse housing discrimination. He’s soon to face the first real test of his campaign (he knew it was coming because he apologized for New York’s stop-and-frisk policy). How he handles it will play a big part in his pre-Nevada standing.
Technically, Bloomberg did not skip the first two contests intentionally. He entered the race after the petition windows in both states had already closed.
Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) is the only candidate on the RCP chart ahead of Bloomberg. He currently sits at 40.3% odds of winning the 2020 nomination. Bloomberg is in second, with former South Bend, Indiana, mayor Pete Buttigieg rising to third (12.4%) after strong performances in the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary.
Former Vice President Joe Biden, meanwhile, is plunging in the odds. Back in October, his odds were above 53%, but he’s fallen all the way down to just 9.8%.
“The shocking fall of presumed front-runner Biden, now +3000, continues. He is fifth in pledged delegates following the first two contests. Polls indicated he was strongly in contention in New Hampshire until he suddenly wasn’t. Nevada and especially the South Carolina primary (Feb. 29) are critical given Biden’s longstanding fundraising problems, which were masked until recently by his standing in the polls,” Bookies.com writes.
With each passing day ahead of the 2020 United States presidental election, Donald Trump’s odds to spend another four years in the White House continue to improve.
At Bovada, Trump is now the -170 favorite to win the election – an all-time high. Trump was -150 on February 5 and -135 on January 29. The odds of the Republicans winning the election are sitting at -180, with the Democrats coming back as +135 underdogs.
In the Democratic New Hampshire primary on February 11, Senator Bernie Sanders narrowly beat out Pete Buttigieg. Sanders, who led the polls going into the vote, solidified his status as the national front-runner with the triumph.
Now, the race shifts to Nevada and then South Carolina. In light of the results in New Hampshire, Andrew Yang dropped out of the running. Yang was +2600 to become president a week ago. For more odds to win the 2020 Democratic nomination, we have you covered.