If Republicans can capture control of the Senate Tuesday, the table could be set for achieving a filibuster-proof super majority in 2024, according to Ben Shapiro.
Speaking on his popular podcast and radio show on Election Day, the Daily Wire co-founder said he believes the GOP is poised to take at least a 52-seat majority, and possibly a 54-seat margin on Tuesday. There are several critical races separated by razor-thin margins, including in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Washington.
“Fifty-four seats in the Senate would give them not only a solid majority, but the possibility of taking a supermajority in 2024,” Shapiro said. “Remember that when it comes to the Senate, because only one third of the Senate is up for election every two years.”
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Fifteen Republican and 13 Democrat incumbents are on the ballot this year, while another six seats are being vacated by retiring lawmakers. One other senator, James Inhofe of Oklahoma, is retiring just two years into his latest term.
If Republicans hang on to the hotly contested seats of retiring GOP senators in North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, and flip a handful of seats currently held by Democrats, including Arizona and New Hampshire, they could hit 54, Shapiro said.
In 2024, the electoral map lines up much more favorably for Republicans, with 21 Democrats up for re-election and just 10 Republicans. Two Independents, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and Sen. Angus King, of Maine, both caucus with Democrats and are also up for re-election in 2024.
“There are a lot of vulnerable purple to blue Democratic seats,” Shapiro said. “And so if Republicans end up with 54 there is the possibility that any 2024 wave election for a Republican [presidential candidate] if Joe Biden is running again … would mean the Republicans have the possibility of having a historically large majority in the Senate.”
There are at least four Senate seats Republicans stood a strong chance of flipping heading into Tuesday. In Arizona, political newcomer Blake Masters led incumbent Democrat Sen. Mark Kelly by a razor-thin margin heading into Tuesday’s election. Former U.S. Army Brigadier General Don Bolduc led another incumbent Democrat, Maggie Hassan, in New Hampshire’s Senate race; former NFL great Herschel Walker held a narrow lead over incumbent Democrat Sen. Raphael Warnock in Georgia; and Nevada Attorney General Adam Laxalt held a strong lead over incumbent Catherine Cortez Masto.
In a race that could turn a bad night into a debacle for Democrats, nurse-turned-Republican Senate candidate Tiffany Smiley was in a statistical tie with five-term Democrat Sen. Patty Murray in the state of Washington.
Democrats were hoping to flip seats held by retiring Republicans in Ohio and Pennsylvania. But J.D. Vance holds a commanding lead over longtime Democrat Rep. Tim Ryan in the race to fill the Ohio seat being vacated by Rob Portman. In Pennsylvania, television star and retired surgeon Dr. Mehmet Oz (R) was in a dead heat with Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman (D), who sustained a stroke in May and struggled on the campaign trail and in their sole debate.
Shapiro predicted that Masters, Walker, Oz, and Laxalt would all win very tight races.
“In Arizona, I could see [gubernatorial candidate] Keri Lake dragging Blake Masters over the finish line,” Shapiro said.
The race Republicans hope to win that Shapiro is not as sure about is New Hampshire.
“In New Hampshire, Maggie Hassan is up just one point, four points according to the Real Clear Politics polling average,” he said. “Now, she is up in four of the last five polls, but virtually all of them are within the margin of error.”
“This is why I’m not sanguine about taking New Hampshire for the Republicans, why I say 53 as opposed to 54,” he said.
The final tally of Senate control may not be known immediately. In Georgia, if neither Walker nor Warnock tops 50%, the two will square off in a runoff December 6. And in Pennsylvania, state officials are warning the public that election results may not be known for several days.