<p>As President Biden’s approval ratings sink lower and lower, House and Senate Democrats are bolting the ship, leaving a stronger and stronger chance that the GOP takes back the House and may even take back the Senate. The latest case in point: on Wednesday, Rep. Jackie Speier (D-CA) announced she would <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U3kvyFAtztE">not run for reelection</a> in 2022. With the precarious lead the Democrats hold in the House of Representatives, every seat matters, although Speier’s heavily Democratic district will likely send another Democrat in her place.</p>
<p>On Monday, the president pro tempore of the Senate, Vermont Democratic Senator Patrick Leahy, who is the longest-serving sitting senator, announced he would not seek reelection next year. Joe Biden won Vermont by 35 points in 2020; no prominent Republican from Vermont has launched a 2022 bid for the Senate as yet.</p>
<p>The Washington Post <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/style/democrats-2022-retirements-congress/2021/11/11/aed573de-4172-11ec-a88e-2aa4632af69b_story.html">noted</a> on Friday, “Eight Democrats have chosen not to run for reelection in 2022, with more probably on the way.” The Post added:</p>
<blockquote><p><em>Members of Congress<strong> </strong>… don&#8217;t usually leave their jobs unless they are pushed out by voters, or feel like they are about to be relegated to permanent minority status. Like a Waffle House closing ahead of a hurricane, the Retiree Index can be a sign for Congress watchers — along with ominous polling and a surprise loss in what was supposed to be a safe election (in this case, Democrat Terry McAuliffe&#8217;s defeat in the Virginia governor&#8217;s race) — that the majority is about to get walloped. Some members may be getting out before their work situations go from intense to intolerable.</em></p></blockquote>
<p>After the elections in Virginian and New Jersey earlier this month in which the GOP performed extraordinarily well, Nathaniel Rakich of fivethirtyeight.com <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-virginias-and-new-jerseys-elections-could-suggest-a-red-wave-in-2022/">noted</a>:</p>
<blockquote><p><em>If I were the Democratic Party, I’d be feeling less comforted by that number after Tuesday. While polls are usually in the right ballpark, they are still subject to a margin of error, as Democrats themselves discovered in 2020, when the generic-ballot polls <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-was-the-national-polling-environment-so-off-in-2020/">overestimated their margin</a> by 4.2 points. Plus, there was already good reason to think that generic-ballot polls right now are overestimating Democrats: Almost all so far have surveyed registered voters rather than likely voters, who tend to be a <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/registered-voter-polls-will-usually-overrate-democrats/">more Republican-leaning group</a>, especially in a midterm election when the <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/do-republicans-really-have-a-big-turnout-advantage-in-midterms/">president is a Democrat</a>.</em></p></blockquote>
<p>The New York Times <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/09/opinion/republicans-biden-virginia-trump.html">opined</a> on November 9, “As Democrats make sense of their losses, ‘one fact stands out as one of the easiest explanations,’ The Times’s Nate Cohn <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/11/02/us/elections/results-new-jersey.html">wrote</a>. ‘Joe Biden has lower approval ratings at this stage of his presidency than nearly any president in the era of modern polling.’”</p>
<p>Derek Thompson of The Atlantic <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/11/democrats-economy-election/620626/">echoed</a>, “Compared with the 2020 election, support for Democrats decayed across states, genders, ethnicities, and counties. Democrats lost because of something bigger than any demographic or issue. They lost a vibes war. Despite many positive economic trends, Americans are feeling rotten about the state of things—and, understandably, they’re <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2021/11/biden-democrats-trouble-build-back-better/620624/">blaming the party in power</a>.”</p>

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As Biden Sinks In Polls, Another House Dem Says She’s Out In 2022